Global Poker, PLO $0.25-$0.50, 6-player max
Effective stacks: 160 bb
Hero is HJ with K
K
T
9
Preflop: (1.5 bb, 5 players)
Hero raise to 3.5xbb, fold, SB call, fold
Flop: (8 bb, 2 players) 4
4
8
SB check, Hero check
Turn: (8 bb, players) 4
4
8
9
SB bet 3 bb,
Hero raise to 13 bb
My thought process:
Flop > I have way less 4s in my range than the SB, and the SB check doesn't narrow their range. I likely have the best hand, but I check to avoid getting bluff/semibluffed check-raised off my better hand. In my mind checking also makes it harder for the SB to narrow my range, making it easier for me to play later streets.
Turn > The SB range is really wide here, and the small bet smelled like it wasn't likely to be a 4. Because I checked on flop, the SB could put me on 4 overcards and just want to fold me out. Calling didn't seem right either, as that would set up a tough river spot the SB could value bet a 4 (I haven't discounted that this is in their range) or a made straight or flush, or if they miss their draws bluff me off my better hand.
Raising felt right: If the SB has a weaker hand, I'm charging them to hit their outs, and if they 3-bet me I give them credit for the 4 and fold.
Raising felt like I was simplifying the hand for myself. When I take an action that simplifies future decisions, it feels like it's more likely to be the correct play, though I know it isn't a 1-to-1 correlation.