T8h6 single raised, 6 to flip

Hero: 79KQJ ds HJ


Eff stacks ~1500, pot 120

EP bets 80, I flat, btn raises to 250, EP calls. Raise to 1075, Btn calls, EP calls

Turn Th (I don’t have hearts). Disgusting. I thought Ep’s range was nearly all sets drawing to boats on flop, and btn had 79. Both are loose, btn is aggressive, EP is passive and will likely have the nuts if raising.

EP jams.

I have to have like 7% equity. Do I have that?

More thoughts:

T is the best card to pair because the board blocks TT now and he might have folded 66 or 88 on the flop if not accompanied by a straight.

Still having a hard time thinking of a hand this particular villain would have here that’s not full.

I'm never folding getting those odds simply because it's too exploitable, especially if two players aren't in.

I lold @ 'disgusting'. Been there.
I'd fold for the last 300 or so. Hearts hit too so if either of them have either one you're just drawing dead. I'd give a crying call if I had hearts but if either of them just had the straight like you, don't they just jam it in on the flop instead of leaving crying call money behind?

Seems like an easy fold.

Is it really? How? You think we won't have a combo with pairs or a boat or outs?

Also you really have to say whether there's an fd on the board on the flop. Might be just a flat. It's just written quite messily.

Sorry, I wrote it out at the casino while I was still at the table. Flop was rainbow, turn put a fd on the board. I rolled my eyes and folded getting great odds. Btn stresses then calls.

River: off suit 6.

EP tables:



And Btn tables

And

Anyways, this is the softest game I’ve ever played in, and I’m up $60k over like 100 hours this year with a good amount of run good overall and some of it played at 5-5 with between 10 and 25 btn straddle

Do you actually know this...? Have you checked PPT? I find this highly unlikely.

You really can't be this results oriented.

Yeah I did the equity calculations. It was somewhat close assuming the btn had 79 and would call. I gave ep all of the boats an T79xx and that wound up with around 8 or 9% equity, which is already enough to call. Then if you factor in my other assumptions such as 66 and 88 being less likely than TT and such I think it’s a very clear call.

I left the casino thinking I made the right fold but got unlucky, but after thinking about it, it was a blunder

I will admit that from a results oriented perspective, this one particularly hurts because I, like most people, would rather make a bad call than a bad fold

ProPokerTools 5-Card Omaha Hi Simulation

57,342 trials (Randomized)

board: T86T

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
KQJ97	4.79%	1,957	2,269
(97,TT,T8,T6,88,66):60%	47.66%	25,083	5,188
(97,TT,T8,88):40%	47.55%	25,026	5,181

If you change the 97 to T97 for either of them then you lose almost half of your equity.

Top card pairing blocks sets, but T987 etc. not so much.

Yeah I was very :doubt: about OP having ran PPT.

I feel like someone should comment on this. And noting that my games don't have a mandatory straddle, so having three blinds probably makes bb/100 bigger...

Assuming the straddle was mandatory, so can be treated as the real "big bling" ... if you played it all at 5-5-25 +$60k is still "24bb" an hour, which would qualify as a good game. Mostly at 5-5-10 is 60bb an hour, which I would roughly describe as the best game ever and running like god.

At 2-2-5 it's 120bb an hour and I've seen drunk people at the casino playing every hand pre., calling flop with no pair no draw and having the best hand on the river almost all the time for 6 hours ... and they didn't run at 120bb an hour.