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18 outs on the turn facing pot 18 outs on the turn facing pot
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09-08-2018 , 12:51 PM
#1
III PRO III's Avatar
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what we do here with 40bb behind facing a pot bet with 18 outs?

fold or gamble?

[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $6.69 Buy-in (900/1,800 blinds) Pot Limit Omaha Tournament, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37936577

UTG: 10,907 (6.1 bb)
MP: 30,598 (17 bb)
CO: 28,000 (15.6 bb)
BTN: 58,981 (32.8 bb)
Hero (SB): 93,392 (51.9 bb)
BB: 115,859 (64.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 3 Q 4 A
4 folds, Hero raises to 4,500, BB calls 2,700

Flop: (9,000) J 5 6 (2 players)
Hero bets 3,600, BB calls 3,600

Turn: (16,200) K (2 players)
Hero bets 12,600, BB raises to 54,000, Hero ???
18 outs on the turn facing pot Quote
09-08-2018 , 01:10 PM
#2
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Call and donkshove if you hit.
18 outs on the turn facing pot Quote
09-08-2018 , 03:21 PM
#3
PokerPlayingGamble
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18 outs is pretty generous, but no way am I counting the 5h or 6h facing this action, and 7d7c7s are all pretty dubious as well given that you are drawing to the idiot end. Still with some potential for hidden outs (mostly the sevens, maybe 5h or 6h), not being too far off from the right price with your 13 nut outs, and the fact that SPR will be tiny on the river so villain will probably pay off the rest a high % of the time, I think u can eek out a small profit by calling the turn.
18 outs on the turn facing pot Quote
09-08-2018 , 03:23 PM
#4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerPlayingGamble
18 outs is pretty generous, but no way am I counting the 5h or 6h facing this action, and 7d7c7s are all pretty dubious as well given that you are drawing to the idiot end. Still with some potential for hidden outs (mostly the sevens, maybe 5h or 6h), not being too far off from the right price with your 13 nut outs, and the fact that SPR will be tiny on the river so villain will probably pay off the rest a high % of the time, I think u can eek out a small profit by calling the turn.

its exactly 18 outs, 2222, 7777, TTTT for straight and any heart for flush,
not counting the 2,7,T of hearts is 18 outs.
18 outs on the turn facing pot Quote
09-08-2018 , 03:43 PM
#5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerPlayingGamble
18 outs is pretty generous, but no way am I counting the 5h or 6h facing this action, and 7d7c7s are all pretty dubious as well given that you are drawing to the idiot end. Still with some potential for hidden outs (mostly the sevens, maybe 5h or 6h), not being too far off from the right price with your 13 nut outs, and the fact that SPR will be tiny on the river so villain will probably pay off the rest a high % of the time, I think u can eek out a small profit by calling the turn.
Sets will usually be raising flop, and turned two pair are the bulk of raises, so 6h/5h are generally good outs. Those sevens being dubious is crazy -- 98xx/84xx is not particularly common.
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09-08-2018 , 06:52 PM
#6
Do0rDoNot
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It's not that crazy

A lot of his raising range consists of hands that draw to higher straights with flush draw blockers and two pair hands and sets with flush blockers too

6789hh 5678hh and KQJThh are some examples

You actually have 13 clean outs to the nuts

Given that you're basically being asked to risk your tournament with 50bbs for 26% equity I'd probably just find a fold
Last edited by Do0rDoNot; 09-08-2018 at 07:05 PM.
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09-08-2018 , 07:44 PM
#7
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Come up with a logically consistent range where on a blank 7 river you are up against a higher straight a lot more than high single-digit %s. Also where you have only 26% equity. wtf am I reading lol.
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09-08-2018 , 07:48 PM
#8
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I had 43% on the turn exactly against his KJ..and I had 40bb behind on the turn. Im a beginner in PLO, i just play it with common NLH sense lol
18 outs on the turn facing pot Quote
09-08-2018 , 08:47 PM
#9
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As second biggest stack with the biggest stack on your left pre. seems like playing ICM chicken. Dito turn, although at least you have a lot of visibility to the river.

As for after your action on the turn, the first comment was enough.

Rough ranges:

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
370,440 trials (Exhaustive)
board: J65K
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AhQd4h3d39.97% 147,2811,548
(KK,JJ,KJ,K6hh,K5hh,K87hh,QThh):40%60.03% 221,6111,548

Also lol 7 bad:

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
8,302 trials (Exhaustive)
board: J65K7
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AhQd4h3d95.73% 7,92349
(KK,JJ,KJ,K6hh,K5hh,K87hh):40%4.27% 33049
18 outs on the turn facing pot Quote
09-08-2018 , 08:51 PM
#10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by illiterat
As second biggest stack with the biggest stack on your left pre. seems like playing ICM chicken. Dito turn, although at least you have a lot of visibility to the river.

As for after your action on the turn, the first comment was enough.

Rough ranges:

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
370,440 trials (Exhaustive)
board: J65K
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AhQd4h3d39.97% 147,2811,548
(KK,JJ,KJ,K6hh,K5hh,K87hh,QThh):40%60.03% 221,6111,548

Also lol 7 bad:

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
8,302 trials (Exhaustive)
board: J65K7
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AhQd4h3d95.73% 7,92349
(KK,JJ,KJ,K6hh,K5hh,K87hh):40%4.27% 33049
good stuff!
18 outs on the turn facing pot Quote
09-08-2018 , 10:39 PM
#11
Purasevic
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Do0rDoNot
It's not that crazy

A lot of his raising range consists of hands that draw to higher straights with flush draw blockers and two pair hands and sets with flush blockers too

6789hh 5678hh and KQJThh are some examples

You actually have 13 clean outs to the nuts

Given that you're basically being asked to risk your tournament with 50bbs for 26% equity I'd probably just find a fold
It is that crazy.It s like 5% of players are raising here higher straights with fd blockers.26% against his range is really nonsense.
18 outs on the turn facing pot Quote
09-08-2018 , 10:50 PM
#12
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Seems to me like it's a close call, but a call none-the-less. Unless there's some major ICM considerations we're missing here I'd cross my fingers & call.

Ultimately, what was your decision & the outcome?
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09-08-2018 , 10:53 PM
#13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ponyneck
Seems to me like it's a close call, but a call none-the-less. Unless there's some major ICM considerations we're missing here I'd cross my fingers & call.

Ultimately, what was your decision & the outcome?
I reshoved the rest of my chips, he had KJ 2 pairs as expected and I busted.
18 outs on the turn facing pot Quote
09-10-2018 , 08:31 AM
#14
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Why on earth did you rejam instead of calling? You are almost never making a mistake on the river (bc you have high visibility) so you can save the rest on a brick river. You should only jam in a spot like this if you think you have fold equity which is clearly never going to be the case.
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