Hero is BUT with £390, Villain in UTG/Straddle covers.
Read: Villian is a typical player for these stakes. Not brilliant, not horrible.
Table Image: Hero is more aggressive than the table average.
9 players.
Q
is exposed during the deal.
Hero has A
7
5
5
Preflop:
Villian UTG straddles to £5.
MP call 5,
Hero(BUT) calls £5(?), SB folds, BB calls 3,
Vil checks.
Flop: Pot £21, 4 players
Flop is A
A
Q
Hero has Trip Aces, Q7 kicker
UTG checks, check, check,
Hero bets £20, fold,
Vil calls £20, fold.
Turn: Pot 61, heads up
Turn is 5
Hero has Aces full of 5s. Currently 2nd nuts.
Vil checks,
Hero bets £60(?),
Villain tanks a long time(!tell), and check-raises to £175. Hero folds(?) and shows A5, Villian says "Wow, good fold!" and wins £120
----
Okay, so here's my thinking.
Preflop, (A5)57 is almost napkins, I certainly don't want to raise with it. A fold might even be the correct play, but DAMN I hate folding the button in PLO, considering how much more power position has in PLO than in Holdem. Still - suited ace...
On the flop, I think I've got the best hand. No one has shown any aggression. Only one other player out of the 4 can have the ace. One of the queens being dead means there's only two combos left of AQxx. I could be behind A(K|J|T)xx, but if I get check-raised here, it's an easy fold.
I bet pot because if I do have the best hand, I want to get calls from heart draws and folds from hands like KQJT
(which technically makes me a 49% dog). I also want - by some chance - hands like AJ87 to fold, because those hands have me so crazily dominated that even if I manage to boat up, they still have redraws. Maybe I should have checked behind for pot control.
When Villain calls, I put his range as AQxx (though there's only 2 combos) / KJxx
draws / AKxx. There are a lot more combos of KJxx
than there are AQ and AK draws by a country mile, so I'm still happy with a call.
Turn: I boat up. My extra 5 means it's very unlikely I'm freerolling someone with A5(8+8+), and bet for value and protection - any K,J,T,9,8,or 6 could result in VIL having a bigger boat, and I'm happy with getting those hands to fold. . I'll be honest with you - I had
already decided that if I got check-raised, I was going to throw my hand away, and unless the case 5 gave me quads on the river, I was going to check/call the river. Quite frankly, even though A5xx was the second nuts - what's raising there that I can beat? QQxx? VERY unlikely given the dead Q preflop - I'd think a QQ hand would fold if a Q was dead. AKxx? I think (if villian's thinking) AKxx can't raise because it only gets called by A5/AQ here. Any hand I hold that's worse than AK would fold, so there's no value in check-raising here. Ultimately, there just isn't a hand in Vil's range I think I can beat if he check raises.
I think that the villian's tank here is hollywood - and I think it's a big live-tell. The longer villian tanks, the more I'm sure I'm beat. For all the hands that I beat, it's either a really easy call or a really easy fold. The only reason that villian might be tanking is because he's trying to look weak, and if anything, is deciding whether or not to try to get value here or value on the river., not whether to bluff at this pot.
I don't know what villain held, but whatevs. Finished that sesh up £240, so I guess even if I made the wrong fold here, it didn't hurt me that much.