As played, I'm happy with the turn fold.
I'm really hungry for more information on our opponents here, though. You say they're passive, but are they also loose? Steal% would also be valuable for ranging CO, though their min-open suggests they aren't super thoughtful as a player about something like position.
How many hands they're seeing flops with makes a big difference for me here, as well as how sticky they are postflop.
To that point, I'm wondering why we aren't betting the flop here. Not so much for value (I think we do have the best hand often, though there are tons of turns and rivers we don't like), but if we can thin the field by one or ideally two opponents, I think it's worth it. I think that, absent more information, bet/fold on the flop is reasonable, and it stays very reasonable if you're raised by a player who has shown very little aggression.
And if we get called (rather than raised), I think we can have some realistic guesses what would be a pretty capped range. This flop offers too many draws for a set to play slow, so I think you're looking at a calling range (for either player) of stuff like AdXd (maybe worse dd hands), JT (though you have a jack yourself), 78 maybe, Q9 probably. You might get some top pair calls here, too (again, more info on these players' stickiness would help a lot).
Let's say we get one caller:
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
As2sAcJh | 40.38% | 241,183 | 2,189 |
dd, JT, Q, Q9, 78 | 59.62% | 356,628 | 2,189 |
We're not ahead but we're not dead either. How does the turn change things?
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
As2sAcJh | 61.42% | 1,866,510 | 12,739 |
dd, JT, Q, Q9, 78 | 38.58% | 1,170,271 | 12,739 |
Pretty significant equity shift in our favor. At this point, if you bet, you probably get some dd/JT/78 folds and probably a lot of top pair folds too. You don't hate calls, though (being ahead of their range) and a raise is an easy fold.
At this point we may have put in two bets with the worst of it, but I think automatically forfeiting this flop is kind of weak (though I may be too spewy in these spots).
But, as played, you put yourself in a tough spot, no? Otherwise you wouldn't have posted the hand. With the above line—bet(/fold), bet(/fold)—the plays are much clearer.
Now, I won't deny that the river would get very tricky OOP almost regardless of card, but—again—with more information on your opponent(s) we can feel more confident about how likely we could be to get to showdown for no more bets... how likely villains would be to bluff a busted diamond or straight draw... etc.
For your hypothetical:
If we have AhJh, I don't think I'm leading the turn. By betting the card that pairs the board, your hand is overrepped, so you're getting some folds but only getting action from hands that you're in serious trouble against. And if you're just trying to get folds, you could/should have done so on the flop, no?
If you're not trying to get folds on the turn, I don't think there's any reason not to give a free card. If you make your flush on the river, you won't get a ton of value from betting anyway, so I would be inclined to just keep the pot small and not put myself in a position to get blasted off of my hand in an inflated pot.