Hi all,
Happy Thanksgiving!
1/2 PLO5, hero opens AdKcTd8c6s UTG1 to $15, one caller, CO 3! to $30 (min-raise?) off of a $300 stack, fish cold calls OTB, I call, and last V calls. We are $1k eff. 4 ways.
Flop ($125): Qd-Js-3c. Checks to fish otb who bets $100, folds to me (call, could iso raise and put fish AI for $300?), MP now c/r pot $525 (has hero covered). MP is recreational, and this is going to be QQ most of the time. Folds to hero who calls with nut wrap and two good bdfds.
Thinking in game was fish probably bet a weaker made hand for value like 33/QJ/Q3 and let it go, blocking other V's boat possibilities so I am drawing dead on fewer turns.
Any merit to just folding here due to fewer outs likely as 3!ttor can have some AA/Ax (although this sizing is weird)? Once I am in for the $100, spr is only 3.3 or so and we have (low end) 35%. Is it better to think of the spr as 8, which is where it started, in which case just let it go? How do you generally account for dead cards when estimating equity in game? Do you discount your theoretical equity by, say, 5%?
Turn ($1150): 7c. Obviously we improve to second nut flush draw, so I just donk jam my last $400 or so. Of note, I had been running meh this session and was stuck just over a buy-in when this hand occurred.
Thanks,
DT