Hey!

Need an opinion or an honest judgment on you guys; whats wrong with my HU PLO game?

About me:
Playign in very soft games, and exclusively bumhunting weak opponents, playing deep most of the time (150bb+)
Playing in a high rake enviroment 5%-10% 1-2bb cap


Not tilting or anything, except for occasional high 3b
Consider myself a very good player (played as a pro for over 12 years online and live, last 120k hands 8-max PLO5/4/6 evbb: 30bb

is it high rake thats killing my HU winrate, or is it that im lacking something dundamentally in my HU game (see red line especially)

Thanx in advance!


Pic is BB

purple=EV
gren= realized win

My guess is high rake, can driveHUD show the amount you paid? There is also a huge difference between 5% and 10% where you would pay double the amount of rake in every small pot which just sounds completely insane HU.

Something I learned recently: In 6-max games, the sum of all red lines is expected to be negative (even excluding rake), because in a multiway pot, if Villain #1 folds before showdown, their redline goes down. However, if Villain #2 wins the pot at showdown, their blue line goes up.

In multiway pots, we expect redline to be low. However, this doesn't apply to headsup pots, because if my redline goes down, your redline must go up by the exact same amount (excluding rake).

So, if there is a huge disparity between your red/ blue lines in HU, that could be a problem.

Btw, that is your suggestion for learning HU PLO? Have you read, or know anyone who has read, Cory Mikesell's book? I live in the US, but I'm not aware of any heads-up games at any stakes.

Rake sounds very harsh, have you calculated how much you have paid? Even if you are 10bb winner an hour might not be enough.

Check how much rake/100 hands have you paid. I think rake is the biggest problem, but I think you are correct that the redline looks a bit alarming. Though if you play against maniacs who way overbluff river for example, nearly all your profit will logically be blue.

I have just studied hands in HEM and did some small sovler work, i play mainly fishes so i go for the max eploti liens usually, but i agree that knowing the GTO might help.

Yes most of my opponents are very agressive high 3b and high continuation bet and barrel happy in general.

I might be wrong, but it seems to me that rake should be taxed fairly equally from the red and blue lines. (Perhaps a bit more from red lines because of smaller pots).

So, I think rake could be an explanation for why your overall winrate is low. But it's not a good explanation for the divergence between red & blue lines.

Rake has nothing to do with red/blue line. You do understand that everything you win is already raked? Every number your database program gives you is raked. Your winrate is always winrate after rake. I don't know what for example this
post means.

You can of course see your winrate with zero rake (or 100% rakeback), if you think that is useful.

Are you talking to me lol? That's basically what I said. Because of rake, we expect red line to just be very slightly lower than blue line, because non-showdown pots are smaller/ raked more. (Assuming cap).

I did respond to some things you said, yes, but I misunderstood what you were saying. Of course high rake doesn't make your redline dive, it makes your winrate dive.

Yeah, in a heads-up graph, I'd expect the average blue and red lines to be very slightly negative. (Just taking into account rake).

However, I'd expect the average 6-max graph to have a much more negative redline, and a positive or break-even blue line.

This is because if there are 3 players in a pot. Player #1 bets $5 and folds, his red line goes down $5. Player #2 bets $5 and loses at showdown, his blue line goes down $5. Player #3 wins at showdown, his blue line goes up $10.

It's a basic flaw in how the blue line is calculated. I don't think it would be that difficult to prorate showdown winnings based on winnings that were derived from players who folded vs winnings from players who made it to show down. It would make sense for Player #3's red & blue lines to both increase by $5.

quite difficult to say what is wrong if you dont post any stats

Idk, but the guys i know who have both red and blue positive have 2 main things in common.
1) Excellent understanding of ranges and where they are in a hand.
2) Attacking weak and capped ranges a lot.