Quote:
Originally Posted by wazz
Just be aware that in the world of professional gambling / advantage play, i.e. counting cards and taking advantage of casino promotions and so on, which I inhabited for a couple of years, and where edges are more firmly known than in poker, the general recommendation is half or even third or quarter kelly rather than full kelly which is known to be highly aggressive.
I am aware. I am also a data scientist with a pretty good understanding of distributions and risks, but thank you, and I appreciate the advice because that is a very good point.
I am compensating for this by using a smaller value for winrate as that is the quantity in the formula with the most error. SD converges pretty fast. Additionally, I am playing PLO50 as my main game, and I have begun taking shots at PLO100 but will drop to 50 fairly fast if I lose a few buy-ins. At 50, if I went through a big enough downswing, I would just reload with personal money so my real bankroll is actually larger than what I am considering to be my bankroll. I'm not busto if I bust out of my GGPoker account winnings.