Quote:
Originally Posted by straightaway
I said to look more at player tendencies than percentages. His range obv isn't just AA and it's probably going to be much wider against someone as loose as you. But if he is a nitty reg he probably isn't getting too out of line 3 betting out of position and he could easily have an overpair here or some mid wrap type hand that has a pair/2pair plus a draw.
OK, so add some wraps that I'm still ahead of with my QTT blocking a lot of outs, add some two pair hands that I'm in better shape against than AA, and my equity's definitely going to be over 35%. Then I only need to get a fold about 1/3 of the time to breakeven. Considering that she's going to be C-betting this board pretty much all the time, I either have to be reading a lot into the bet-sizing on the flop or making AA/KK a very large portion of her range to fold. I'm not saying it's a mistake to make AA/KK a large portion of her range, part of me obviously thinks it is which is why I made the thread, but there's definitely a 3-bet% where it becomes good to get in on this flop. Like with an 11% 3-bettor I don't even question it and I'm pretty sure 10% is good too. Also, if I can't get in on a low flop where I pick up extra outs in both a GS and a BDFD, I don't think it can possibly be profitable to play this hand preflop.
And yeah, the reg's Annette. I was actually more interested in the abstract problem of what to do with different 3-bet% numbers than the specifics of what Annette's range is here so I was trying to avoid saying her name, but no one's been giving me any percentages of where they think the breakeven point for this to be a good play is anyway.