preflop - hero has AA95ddcc on the button. hero posts button straddle 25, one limper in EP, villain raises to 100, loose reg calls in CO, hero makes it 400, limper folds, villain calls, reg calls.

villain has around 4500 and hero covers

flop is Q95 rainbow and villain leads for 600, reg folds, hero flats

villain is putting hero on exactly AA here after the preflop 3bet and has a history of leading into me light with this type of board when he thinks i may not have connected. (i am 3betting more than just aces in this spot but he views me as tight). he can have some value here too, like QQ or Q9, but gets out of line enough to justify continuing for now.

turn is another 9 and villain continues for 1400, hero flats

based on flop read, this reduces his value combos, now our hand needs less protection against hands containing a Q and some draws, which is probably a large part of his range, flatting keeps his bluffs in and avoids value owning ourselves on those rare occasions we are beat. villain is certainly capable of barreling into aces with KQJx here

river is a Q and villain checks to hero

are we betting here hoping to get value from a naked Q?

If he has a Q, you wouldn't think he would bet the river now that he can finally beat AA?

What hands is he calling with that you're beating?

i dunno, he might check a hand like KQ that now has showdown value out of fear that i have a boat or AAQ once i call turn. there is a lot of history between us which might create a leveling situation here. but i do think it's very possible that he would semibluff hands containing a Q on the turn, make trips but still realize that he may not be good on the river.

with most villains the answer is very few to none, but this v is quite loose and gambly and i think it's possible i get hero'd by a naked Q. he knows enough to know that KQ is a hero call there, but he might still talk himself into it.

100% bet river

I choose 1/3 sizing

Not betting the river - I think there's very few bare Qx he has as he committed on the turn - maybe Qx with a wrap. If villain puts you on exactly AA wouldn't he ship the river? I don't think there's any value to be had on the river - he should even fold 55 if you bet here as you probably dump most of your hands after he bets the turn, leaving your range on the river if you bet to a lot of FH's.

When you have a full house on the river, and villain checks to you with less than a pot-sized bet in the middle, you have the greenest of lights to jam all your money in without worrying too much about the very few times he's trapping with a better hand, and let him work out what he wants to make a hero call with.

I am an idiot (so not much has changed) and didn’t see we had made the boat on river — Once there, I am fully with wazz. Bet and be happy about it.

Made the boat on the turn, but I forgive you.

This is an easy jam, there are tons of hands that might call and he won’t trap often since we’re going to check back a lot.

Wondered what was going on in the comments initially. As Wazz said... clearest jam ever. They're never trapping here with Q9 so it's only QQ we're worried that they might trap. But they can definitely have something like QJT that wants to check because they don't expect you to call with AA but can still have a better Q so it makes more sense to check and pick off any bluffs you might have.

This is a fist pump jam. He is never checking QQ or Q9.

Initially I was like ship it in bro wtf. But then I sat back and thought about it, if I ignore most of what you’ve said about Villain from your tinder bio, you 3bet pre, on flop he donks for 3/4, turn he donks 3/4 and then checks river when board runout is perfect for him to keep repping. Actually kind of feels like a check back now, feel like he’s dusting all his marginal **** down your throat on river and he can put you on busted wraps etc here too, so I feel like he can def have traps especially with $2500 behind.

Just my humble opinion.

My instinct when I read the hand history was to check behind the river, but I was conflicted. It felt very very close to me, but then basically everyone said ship it and I was I guess I am wrong and this isn't close. C'est la vie.

I spent a few minutes on this building a sim. I gave villain the following range: ((QQ, 99, 55, Q9, Q5, JT)@100, 95@50, ( KQJ, KQT, AKQ[T-J])@15):15%

This gives him some bluffs and, what I think, is a reasonable frequency for betting two pair - erring on the side of betting out too aggressively with two pair.

Using this simulation villain has trips 19.3% of the time, full house 13.9% of the time and quads 13.8% of the time.


So, it depends on how often he is going to be checking hands that have you beat here, because the above is an analysis of what will call your bet.

edit: If you think he might check QQ and Q9 here 33% of the time then the numbers are 22, 11, 6 for trips, full, quads respectively).

The thing is, I’m fml calling all day if he jams river.

This pot is actually really weird. Like I was like no one’s calling river jam with 55 or AQ anyway, but actually as played they probably are right, at least some of the time.

Like if he calls 50% of river jams with 55, and AQ am I right saying that just for arguments sake that’s 9 combos @%50 so 4.5 vs 3 combos of QQ Q9?, so that’s 50% more hands that he calls and loses with than traps. So I guess we do actually fist pump jam?

With flop and turn action though, he really needs to have almost exactly AQJT? I’m leveling myself. Again.

This is much different and much easier due to the bluffs.

No, thst isn’t right at all because of all the side cards and the distribution of hands villian started with. He started with many many many more QQ combos than 55 combos.

If he only calls 50% of the time with AQ and 55 we should check it back. See my previous post for the percentages.

Sweet thanks, like the check is more tilting than the jam for real.

With two 9s on the board and one 9 in your hand V never has 99 in his range.

We always factor in one upside down six to account for drunk villains. L2P.

I know but so does propokertools so it doesn’t matter.

I think he might have a straight draw plus a 9.

Can we get a spoiler plz

My vote is to bet river. Villain in hand bets himself with better hands some of the time on river. We can still get called QJT, KQJ type hands.

Given people tend to post more losing hands than winning ones, I'm half expecting OP bet and ran into a bigger hand.

Value jam into quads is feasible.

yea, Im downbetting too. Letting bare queen trips try to bluff of with boat blocker. I'd check if hero had AAQX, but with a boat and villains willingness to spalsh, thats thin value / induce call off all day.