Playing 10/20 on WSOP. Stack is a bit over 4500.

We look at the lovely 5537 in BB. Some of these details are irrelevant-focus is the river. However, UTG+1 opens to 70 and we defend with our marginal hand!

Flop:
553 2 clubs. pot 150ish.
Check check. We think KK and AA is definitely in Villain's range more so AA.

Turn: A
553A.
We love this card and bet small of 65. Villain calls. We are hoping to get a big river cooler here. River A!

Board:
553AA
This card is bizarre. I feel Villain has AA a ton of the time! unless he is peeling with AKxx or what not.
We bet 185. and Villain raises to 495!

He has another 1k behind.
Hmm. we have quads and got raised...but by what?? Villain can't have any 5s. I block a 3 so only two left in the deck. We are ruling out 24xx.

We just call! Are we insane? Villain shows A3xx for runner runner boat. We would have gotten paid. What would you do? I feel getting raised is absolutely bizarre because villain just has a lot AKxx and what not, but he would not be raising typically. Let me know if im crazy!

His range on the river you're certainly ahead of - A3/33/24/AK?/AA/bluffs? Now more importantly if you raise here what does he call with? Obviously AA, not sure what A3 does, would fold everything else. Keep in mind A3 alone has 5x as many combos as AA, so AA is a small part of his range. Furthermore AA bets the flop I would say at least half the time, leading more towards A3.

Short version - you have to 3b this - its criminal not to.

I use to play at a casino that played one round of Hold'em and then one round of Omaha. During the Hold'em round, a young guy raised on the river with a king high flush and lost to the ace high flush. After the hand was over, someone at the table said, "son, people that raise on the river with the king high flush went broke a long time ago around here." Everyone laughed. That was a Hold'em hand, but over the next couple of hours the Omaha hands offered up a lot of chances for people to joke a version of the quote. And sure enough during an Omaha hand, someone told someone else after a hand, "son, people that raise on the river with a hand hoping their opponent doesn't have pocket AA to make a full house or quads went broke a long time around here."

Almost no one has a river 3b bluffing range without blockers, and for good reason. You're hoping he has precisely A3, and calls with it. Bet-call is good even if you're good here 9 times out of 10.

This is also a good spot to break out some Bayes analysis. The fact that he checked the flop, suggesting he doesn't have AA, is comparatively irrelevant to the fact he's raising the river, which people tend to have a polarised range with.

The fact he has more combos of A3 in his range than AA is also not a good reason to 3b the river if he's folding all his A3 to your 3b. Be a criminal on this river and steal the amount you would have 3b from him when he expects to take your monies. Will be highly tilting when he perfect perfects you and you still don't give him your stack.

Umm we have quads, flop checked through, turn bet 3bb, call. River lead 10bb, raise 15bb, villain has 50bb behind.

Am I missing something here?

Finland has just cancelled Christmas because of this thread.

Yes, you are missing the fact that in PLO almost no-one stacks off with the 3rd nuts on the river. Blasting away with the 2nd nuts hoping that the 3rd nuts will call when the actual nuts are eye-level and just as plausible as the 3rd nuts would be the Christmas present here.

Great analysis. Thanks Wazz. Makes a lot of sense. Nice to also hear some analysis with your claims…cant say the same for everyone…I do think in this scenario I would be getting called by A3. For the reason that he went runner runner…me having 53 and overplaying possible for a 3b? I would never…but a donk could. Either way…interesting spot.

33, A3, 42 are not folding for 50bb and there are plenty of players out there who find a call with any big ace as played for this price. Clubs bricked too right? I really don’t think we can justify not jamming for the 50bb with quads.

Obviously keen to discuss.

if you're playing for fun, do whatever makes you feel better whether it's calling or raising

if you posted for actual advice, realize that folding 7553 or similar garbage preflop will make you far more money in the long run than 50bb going either way in the hand that happens once every 3 years

Number of beebs isn't as relevant as the size of the pot going to the river. If you see people regularly raise-calling the 3rd nuts, get me in your games.

Yeah this +1000

Can you elaborate on what you mean, I’m not following you.

nvm

I would disagree folding this preflop HU out of the BB 200+bb deep unless you're just terrible postflop and lighting money on fire. This hand should be fairly easy to play postflop against a broadway heavy range, if we make a set/straight our hand is disguised, etc. Much rather call with this then marginal broadway hands that induce RIO.

If you think 42 or 33 is calling me for 50BB 3 bet you are insane. I can see a 33 raise on the river, but you can not call a 50BB raise. 42 you can raise river, but when I repot it is an instafold. The only only precise hand I should be getting called against is A3 and winning still. My philosophy was- UTG open guy pretty tight. Very well could have AA. Calls my turn. When I get raised the river-what is he calling turn that makes him raise river? Calling Ace 3 was so out of the realm he could have. Honestly, I think i’m seeing AA more than you think-despite statistical probability of Quad v Quad.

So really I should just come to your game and raise every river for free money when your capped?

Would love to have you in my games, especially if you think 24 and 33 is calling a 3bet river for 50 BB. It is precisely A3 or AA that would be calling. And UTG open and turn call I side with AA.

Stack pot ratio is far more important than absolute amount of big blinds. Big blinds is not irrelevant but as we get closer to the river we should think less about that and more about balancing the need to correlate the size of the pot to the strength of our hand, given the current pot size and remaining stacks, with the need to balance our range.

I guess I've seen analogues to 24 raise-calling the river, either by gigantic fish who don't realise a full house is possible, or with a sick dynamic where someone bets the river for value with a good ace, decides to turn it into a bluff once they've been raised, and then been called by someone who was raising to induce, but not exactly often. Most good players even with strong reads are raise-folding A3 here.

We haven't even mentioned the fact that 100% of AA remain in villains range, while even position-ignorant fish for a lot of their A3.

Keep it civil bro I’m here to discuss the hand.

This is exactly one of the lines that I was thinking about.

Or like, from villains perspective; hero stabs with air on turn repping 5, but then continues to barrel even when ace pairs the board, villain either with or without an ace is like I’ll take this down, pulls trigger.

This statement really interests me, could you humour me and make it more concise. I’m reading it but I’m struggling to understand/digest what you’re saying. Thanks Wazz.

I guess knowing all this- is it either

A. Too nitty to not 3bet the river|

B. If he is bluffing per se- then he will fold to 3 bet-so less concerned about raising just in case he has AA which is reasonable.

My point being-should I be raising this river no matter what- and if he has Quads he has Quads and it is gross. Without blocking the 3, I would raise here more often. But, blocking the 3 and getting raised just felt so sick. Appreciate the tips from all-

Almost no-one bets a street for value and then turns their hand into a bluff on the same street. It is more appropriate when you have, say, both the nut flush and nut house blocker, are betting the nut flush for value, and then try to rep the nut fh. Let's worry about being up against that line when we're in villains shoes, or when to use it itself, not imagine that villain might be considering that that's what we're doing.

Bayes Analysis attempts to account for differing values of information. In community card poker this can be seen as saying that river actions account for better value information than on other streets. In plo in particular when someone can be betting ab on the flop and then my the runner their best hand uses cd, we need to realise that a river raise represents strength better than on other streets.

You're looking for ways we can be bluffing here. Which is ok as long as you don't forget that: villain raised pre, and then raised the river. That the aces came runner runner, or that we flopped quads, or that we can somehow have a suicide 3b jam the river as a bluff range, is less important than the most new and powerful information.

I don't how how else to say it? Relative > absolute.

“more about balancing the need to correlate the size of the pot to the strength of our hand, given the current pot size and remaining stacks, with the need to balance our range.”

Pretend your trying to explain to your mum.