Final Table, blinds:

20K / 40K , 40K bb ante

chip counts avg'd:

btn...........Keijzer...........3M........75bb
sb............Negreanu.......2M........50bb
bb............Le.................3M.......75bb
utg...........Weisman..... 1.5M.....40bb

weisman opens utg 2.5x AK hh / 87 dd
keijzer calls
negreanu 3bets 11x
Le folds
weisman 4bet all-in (essentially, left himself <4bb otf)
keijzer folds
negreanu calls

on a flop of As 8s 2h, the rest of the chips go in.

I'm curious of what people think of Daniel's 3b from the sb with this holding and this stack at this stage of the tourny. And I'm also curious of what people think of Weisman's 4b.

Thanks
5th

I will have you know that I am one of the very few who can answer why a top pro played a deep tourny hand this way but unfortunately I don't know what his cards are. Better luck next time.

Weisman 4! seems totally reasonable.

whoops sry

negreanu had JThh/87cc

https://www.youtube.com/live/rgmsot2rDe4?feature=share

1hr 10min mark

Honestly, I rather dislike Daniel's 3-bet. I don't hate it, but I don't think it's correct. Given the stack sizes, if Dylan is opening in that position, I don't think he's going to just flat a 3-bet and I think Daniel really risks crippling himself. But maybe he was willing to make the gamble to effectively double up and wants to maximize his ability to win the tournament and in that case, fair enough.

I think the key here is that Keijzer flats on the button. With the additional dead money, Negreanu would rather 3bet in an attempt to get it heads up, since his hand is still going to have decent equity against Weisman's 4bet range. He might still 3bet to keep the BB out, but the call in-between makes him much more willing to re-raise. Weisman should probably be folding or 4betting for the same reason, to get it heads up.

If Negreanu perceives himself as the weakest player left, then I think it's correct for him to 3bet here and ride the variance train.

The payouts are relevant in any analysis. His play attempts to get folds and pick up the pot pre while hoping that he isn't hugely bad if he gets 4-bet, but if there is a big pay jump 4th to 3rd not "hugely bad" might be quite bad ICM wise.

If he just folds, there is a chance that the BB calls and then he has the short stack (ok not desperately short) vs two big stacks, so there is a non-zero chance that the short stack could go out on the hand.

As a general point, I'd guess that the biggest difference between plo cash and tournament play is that the common 50/50 situations that are ok in cash might not be great in the other format.

Dylan's open is fine and I actually quite like that he didn't pot it, because this preserves chips should it get 3 bet and he passes,
and he is definitely passing if it goes 3 bet, 4 bet.

Equally, folding pre is also okay. We do partially block some of our opponents' very strong hands, but AK87DS is not quite there as a very good hand
in respect of board coverage and post flop playability, and it is harder for us to double up when we make a flush because we hold the second nut heart.
The above said, this is compensated by it only being four handed. So either opening to 100K or passing are both fine.

After the flat by the button, I don't like Daniel's 3 bet. I am definitely flatting in his shoes, because of ICM,
and because we are not deep enough to play streets post flop if our 3 bet is flatted.

The 4 bet by Dylan is not great against Daniel specifically, because he knows that Daniel doesn't care about ICM,
so the 4 bet has very little fold equity.

So when Dylan 4 bets, he knows that it is a small ICM mistake, but the problem is that if he opens with a hand that is not
quite at the top of his range and gets 3 bet by Daniel and passes, that Daniel will keep doing this and exploiting him,
so he needs to make a stand.

I don't mind the 3b but would probably go with a smaller sizing. Weisman I believe should call instead of jam - his hand does not have an equity advantage vs a reasonable 3b range, but also plays well postflop so jamming doesn't seem wise.

If Daniel raises smaller and gets 4 bet then he has to fold IMO, because he is not quite pot odds equity committed to call what is still close to an all in 4 bet effectively because the SPR
will be so small OTF. So all 3 betting smaller with the hand he has is doing is potentially setting fire to chips if 4 bet.

The pot sized 4 bet is better because it does have some fold equity. If a smaller sized 3 bet gets one or two flatters then yes that's okay because Daniel's hand has great board
coverage, but he can achieve a similar situation just by flatting and not risking as many blinds. It's a clear flat pre for me.

Calling by Daniel would be very bad imo. It almost def goes 4 ways, he's oop and will find it very difficult to play his hand post flop.

agreed. Daniels hand plays well HU but multiway this hand is troublesome. Dominated draws - has some connectivity but not enough.

Nope.

I'm not a super fan of 3betting this double suited rundown from oop. he does have enough stack to put in a quarter of it for the 3b, but i also think this play works better as a short stack, as anything that plays back should have him crushed. however, he has a good feel for final table dynamics and he's likely to pick up the dead money and win immediately.

From weisman's view, i think it's a reckless 4b with a weak holding. If he figures he's not up against AAxx then he's flipping or crushing most rundowns, but i think daniel is weighted toward aaxx or a stronger Ahi rundown. it's worth nothing a few hands earlier Weisman opened AQJ6 ss otb and Keijzer 3bet from the small w/ qj93 ds, and weisman folded. Maybe he was putting a foot down this time? shorty or not, he started with 40 bb and got it in pre with AK87 ds. there is a lot of play left in this tourny with those stacks.

i think i'd tend to call as dnegs but 3 bet seems fine, whole hand seems fine, weisman putting pressure back on second shortest stack as the shortest stack seems good

Imho;

Dylans 4 is spew, generally if we GII here we are just donkey crushed. He’s just fingers crossed hoping Dan is Insta mucking.

Daniels 3 is dumb vs Dylan in particular, Dylans super aggro and way better at PLO than Daniel. What minuscule % of the time is Dylan folding to a 3, and now we are OOP in inflated pot with marginal hand. GG.

Daniel should fold to the 4, he had a crack, got shut down, let it go get a better spot.

This hand is identical to the spew that occurs every day all the way from $5 - $1000 PLO MTTs.

Again just my humble opinion.

When it gets back to him he's a 45/55 dog vs AAxx with a lot of dead money in the pot - I think he has plenty enough overlay to call here when it get back to him. I can't imagine folding.

I'm not sure where one would get the idea that Daniel doesn't care about ICM. If he cares about making more money, he's a smart enough Cookie to read up on the subject and apply it in-game.

Yeah the whole “ICM is for poor people” is most often just a level imho to make opponents think you can’t be pushed around in ICM spots.