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Trips vs Nut Peddler Trips vs Nut Peddler

12-02-2021 , 03:23 AM
1/2/5 live game.
Hero $500. MAWG. reg in the game.
Villian $1k 60s White Male. Reg in the game. Limps a lot preflop but only gets it in with the goods post.

OTTH

Hero is on the button and has straddled to $5.
6 limps to Hero and Hero raises to $30. with QJT8 ds
5 callers

Flop ($180) QQ6 rainbow

Checked to Hero who bets $60.
Folded to V who raises to $200.

Hero?
12-02-2021 , 04:03 AM
Think we should call and try to hit our boat.

Might fold the turn on big bet
12-02-2021 , 07:13 AM
This is usually Q6. 140 to win 440 so 3:1. You have at most 9 outs. It's pretty dicey tbh wouldn't hate a fold. Very often one of your outs will be to a chop.
12-02-2021 , 05:04 PM
At such a low SPR, checking back the flop may be better. Still able to gii over two streets with more/better info. Betting small is still hard to get away from when nits give action. We're going to have AQ/KQ/66 for bets and can even throw in best backdoors as a lol mw bluff once in a while. Call me results oriented, that's fine, but much easier to exploit this guy with more behind.
12-02-2021 , 11:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerPlayingGamble Trips vs Nut Peddler
This is usually Q6. 140 to win 440 so 3:1. You have at most 9 outs. It's pretty dicey tbh wouldn't hate a fold. Very often one of your outs will be to a chop.
Yeah but implied odds are easily good enough to peel one and fold the turn. You'll be IP with an SPR of much less than 1 so you should always get a full double when you hit.
12-03-2021 , 05:40 PM
id peel one card villain has Aq+ there, super hard to have bluffs 6 ways there.

prefer Even a check back on the flop since 6 players.
Just up against so many cards week trips isnt that great in this spot
12-03-2021 , 09:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by koking51 Trips vs Nut Peddler
id peel one card villain has Aq+ there, super hard to have bluffs 6 ways there.

prefer Even a check back on the flop since 6 players.
Just up against so many cards week trips isnt that great in this spot
^^^
12-03-2021 , 10:42 PM
This assumes we see two cards, which we don't:

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: QxQy6z
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
QJT836.28% 208,90117,548
(aq,66,Q6):60%63.72% 373,55117,548

Also seems very sketchy that villain didn't just raise pot ... like the only reason to do this is if he's bluffing a decent amount (terrible for us given we are only calling once) or has something like AKQ/Q6 which is just crushing us and villain knows it (also terrible for us).


People saying call like to gamble, or just run good, I guess?

Like ~82% of the time we -$140 and ~18% we +$710 ... which comes out as +$10 for the call with a massive side of variance. And that only works if our assumptions are correct, if he ever shoves turn with a worse hand and we fold we are burning money.


Also, as others said, do something different on flop. $60 bet seems fine if we are HU and ok if we are 3 ways ... 7 ways is lol, no.
12-05-2021 , 07:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by illiterat Trips vs Nut Peddler
Also, as others said, do something different on flop. $60 bet seems fine if we are HU and ok if we are 3 ways ... 7 ways is lol, no.
why? i like his sizing 7 ways... if you bet big here you isolate yourself against better hands and not get value from worse imo
12-05-2021 , 11:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wellenstein Trips vs Nut Peddler
why? i like his sizing 7 ways... if you bet big here you isolate yourself against better hands and not get value from worse imo
Because against 1 or 2 opponents we can bet smaller with a wide-ish range of Qs overpairs and some bluffs, but against 24 other cards we aren't betting random AA/KK/JJ hands, so this is like bottom of range of hands we might bet ... then we aren't happy to get raised, and the small bet might be inducing something and the SPR isn't that big anyway because 7 people saw the flop.
12-14-2021 , 05:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by illiterat Trips vs Nut Peddler
Because against 1 or 2 opponents we can bet smaller with a wide-ish range of Qs overpairs and some bluffs, but against 24 other cards we aren't betting random AA/KK/JJ hands, so this is like bottom of range of hands we might bet ... then we aren't happy to get raised, and the small bet might be inducing something and the SPR isn't that big anyway because 7 people saw the flop.
Trips vs Nut PeddlerTrips vs Nut Peddler

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