BTN straddles for 10
SB whale raises to 30
BB fish calls
UTG folds
UTG+1 folds
MP (Hero) calls with 7764
HJ folds
CO fish calls
BTN nit calls

Hero is 2.5k deep (everyone covers). LAG-pro image.

Pot 150

Flop 873o

SB checks
BB checks
Hero bets 100
CO calls
BTN calls
SB folds
BB folds

Pot 450

Turn Ko

Hero bets 350
CO folds
BTN raises to 1.2k

Hero?

Vs a nitty straightforward player I would think this is an easy fold, especially if he doesn't squeeze most KK combos.

Preflop is horrible.
Flop is suspect and I prefer a check.
Turn bet is fine but I think it’s an easy fold now. Kk, 88, make up a lot of villain range… like 9TJ is a lot less likely.

Also… suits matter. Include them.

Rainbow board—denoted by “o.”

Yea.

I think flop lead is ok. 5w flops aren't a thing in solver world so who cares what it would say but betting 2nd set for value this texture seems reasonable. Would size a little bigger though.

He means whether you have any backdoor flush draws. Because it changes equity and playability often.

Back door flush draw. I hope the 7764 wasn’t rainbow.

I'm checking Turn a lot for pot control here. Nit won't hit Board so by x/c Turn we can now 'bluff' a lot of Rivers .. otherwise Nit is almost forced to call off on River for value. GL

There are three magic cards in poker.

Everyone knows that the ACE is magic, but so are the TEN and FIVE. You cannot make a straight in poker without a T or 5. Well, okay so what you ask. If you look at preflop hand ranges you see where the T and 5 show up even when higher cards don't. This is because by having the T or 5 in your hand you don't need it to hit the flop. You also split pots less often. Etc, etc. When you play lower pocket pairs you are going to need something like a suited ace with another broadway card or reasonable connectivity to make a straight with a T or 5.

Bro, start believing in magic.

Sorry if this is rough but it needs to be said: Pre is lol. I never understand why people would sit down in a game with thousands of dollars and not bother to spend a weekend learning preflop.

Flop lead ok in that kinda game.

Turn is easy fold vs a nit. Would be rip a worse hand on you like K8T9? It’s possible but he would probably just call ip with that action. Can he have Kk? Yes very easily.

7h 7d 6s 4s, one spade on the flop (sorry, didn't think this was relevant). I understand pre is a little sloppy. But I'm in position against a whale and a big fish. It's $30 to take a (long) shot at $2.5k or more.

I think it's incorrect to play super solid (20% VPIP) in juicy live games. My rule of thumb is that if I'm one of the two tightest players at the table, I'm probably not making as much money as I could. You have to find ways to gamble in these games. And hands like these, if I can sneak in with a limp or 3bb-call, help me get my VPIP closer to 30%.

If you're out of position, are y'all generally check-calling second- and third-nut sets, particularly on wet boards? I've been betting second-nut sets (and nut straights without redraws) out of position, and it's been putting me into a lot of tough decisions on the river.

I get what you're saying about pre but there are better candidates, like any suited Ace that better tolerates mw action. As seen in this hand, you flop second set, catch one of your better turn cards, and still likely have to fold the turn. You also characterize yourself as "in position" when you're very far from the button. Like your call much better when in the CO, for example.

I'd size smaller on the flop, like $60, mostly because it's very mw and also because the texture doesn't justify a big sizing. Checking is also defensible but look left before the action is on you and see what you can see.

As played, I think you have the right idea to bet less than full sizing on the overcard brick, particularly the A and K. I think $300 does the job just as well as $350. Now fold and I think this was played pretty decently.

I’m totally with you on this philosophy but it doesn’t mean we can just throw any positional awareness out of the window.

You’re in MP with still 4 players behind you which is really the problem. If you’re on the button by all means play this hand. I would def open up my vpip to 35% in this kinda game.

But I would do it by playing more mediocre KK/QQ/JJ98/single suited rundowns, nutsuit hands from this position.

Getting in there calling raises with low card crappy hands only from the button.

The problem with this hand from this position is that it doesn’t have the implied odds it might seem to have. As evident by the hand in question: there will almost always be another caller behind and even on a very good board you can’t bomb it effectively because you just run into trouble with the player behind.

If you’re on the button it’s different and I’d def be calling this hand.

I imagine this hand being like 74s in hold'em. It's a little spewy to call pre from MP, but it might be ok against super spewy players who have already entered the pot in the SB and BB.

I definitely understand what you're saying about hands like A632ts/t and KK72ts being better calling candidates because they can flop the nuts multi-way.

It just seemed like a bargain to call with 7764ss/u for $30 when every other hand was $50+...

So that’s the misconception. You can not compare this to 74s in Holdem because that can actually flop a strong hand with implied odds and stack a fish with top pair. You can get into situations where you get most of the money in with 80-90% equity.

This is very different in plo, you rarely fop such dominated equity situations and you have trouble betting three streets because the hand will devalue too much on later streets. Actually this hand will mostly get you into reverse implied odds situations because you’ll almost always flop the non nutted straight or be on the receiving end of set over set.

Again as evident in the hand: you are not able to value bet effectively vs the fish because of the player behind you. Even though this is like one of the best boards you could get. This is why you can play this hand from the button but not from MP (or any other position).

That said flatting 74s in MP in nlhe is usually gonna be pretty bad too. Yes even vs a whale. The problem is the players behind you.

Excellent post.

I would add that preflop with small pairs, we need a very high criteria for sidecards being useful and connected, especially in loose splashy games with many players seeing flop.

Implied odds of junky ax suited hands amd even junky middle pair set-mining hands with bad sidecards can have far superior playability and implied odds vs bad players, Even if the raw equity pre-flop can be lower.