The vast majority of MTTs that I play on stars are < $20 buyins and on FT < $30, I'm not sure you realize how massive my edge is in these large field events when a lot of players are just absolutely terrible, I'm probably in the top 98 percentile when I play on Stars and top 95 percentile when I play on FT (lots of decent players play the $26 tourneys as there is a ton of value in them). Obviously my edge is smaller in $55s and $109s and don't have that great of a sample to go on, especially when you take into account how many times I've gotten boned playing them. 1st place is normally around 18x more than 9th place and 50x 25th place in a lot of MTTs, so until you make a final table at a given buyin level you are typically going to be a loser at that level.
My deepish run in the sunday million didn't even include any major aipf suck outs (ie winning an 18/82 which is the way I basically busted, with my KK vs villains TT). I had doubled up early under 30 hands in after limping behind a UTG limper with QQ as I made a read that some players were ready to blow up and sure enough there was one more limper behind me and SB shipped his entire stack from the SB with JJ and obv I snap called because most players wouldn't ever play AA or KK this way and it was pretty smooth sailing from there. Later on some donk limped on the button with AA and I completed T7s from the SB and had turned trips and he wanted to go with his hand, he played his hand like a moron and paid the price, after this hand I had a very sizable stack and went on a roll. Sure I won some races in the tourney as does almost anyone who makes the top 25% of the field, but iirc my entire stack was never at risk in the tournament until my bust out hand (was money fav but w/e
).
I've done the math for a bunch of situations and not going to share it (easy as hell to do yourself if you know how to use excel), if you get your money in 12 times with 65% equity aipf in a field of 4K players, and double up each time (i.e. get your money in vs a bigger stack) you will win the MTT over 1/200 times (.5%) assuming other players are eliminating players at the same rate as you. This doesn't even account for your edge in winning pots without showdown.
Johan why would it be fun for me to experience "REAL" mtt variance? Are you a ****ing ******... I already have. Also do you play on FT? Don't need to give out your name (if it's not know), just wondering.
I just looked up your tourney results on OPR and noticed that your average field size and avg bi are ~1/2 mine, its much easier to have > 100% roi in larger field tournaments. Just take a look at conceivable winrates for HU SNGs and 9 handed SNGs, which are essentially 2 person and 9 person tournaments respectively. Obviously my ROI is going to be much higher as well because I understand the overall skills needed to do well in MTTs a lot better than you (no offense, but you can't really argue the other side here). Blind stealing, table image, stack sizes, shove/call ranges, better play at all stack sizes, better hand reading etc.
I've run ridiculously bad at MTTs when the play has gotten down to < 4 handed (difference between 4th and 1st is enormous) and I could pretty much tell you exactly how each HU I've played went down and had players get their entire stack in multiple times as a dog only for my hand not to hold up. The only time I didn't even have a chance HU was in the 3r when I got to HU with over a 20:1 chip disadvantage and lost 44 vs QJo aipf the 1st hand, only reason I made it to HU with that big of a disadvantage was because the guy 3rd in chips made a terrible raise/call in the SB vs my shove in the BB, which left me with around 600K and both other players with ~6mirrion, next hand it was his BTN and he raised like 2.7 million otb (wtf?!?!?) and BB ended up having AK and shipping on him, the idiot BTN tanks down and eventually calls with A6o and loses which puts me HU 12MM to my 600K which is nearly impossible to win given how many bb we both had.