[LOW] ***Small Stakes PLO BBV THREAD*** - Page 1652 - Small Stakes Pot Limit Omaha

Poker is pretty easy sometimes.

PL Omaha $1.00(BB)
HERO ($117.24)
BB ($275.21) [VPIP: 96.1% | PFR: 36.5% | AGG: 24.9% | 3-Bet: 14.8% | Hands: 311]
UTG ($105.08) [VPIP: 25.5% | PFR: 14.1% | AGG: 18.3% | 3-Bet: 5.2% | Hands: 1561]
HJ ($242.93) [VPIP: 32.7% | PFR: 20% | AGG: 33.1% | 3-Bet: 8.6% | Hands: 1563]
CO ($153.23) [VPIP: 25.1% | PFR: 10.7% | AGG: 22.4% | 3-Bet: 2.2% | Hands: 2928]
BTN ($77.40) [VPIP: 44.1% | PFR: 3.9% | AGG: 21.1% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 102]

Dealt to Hero: 2

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Raises To $3.50, BTN Calls $3.50, HERO Raises To $15, BB Calls $14, CO Calls $11.50, BTN Calls $11.50

Hero SPR on Flop: [1.04 effective]
Flop ($60.00): K

HERO Checks, BB Checks, CO Bets $20 (Rem. Stack: 118.23), BTN Raises To $62.40 (allin), HERO Calls $62.40 (Rem. Stack: 39.84), BB Folds, CO Folds

Turn ($204.80): K

River ($204.80): K

BTN shows: 2

HERO wins: $201.80

Quote

02-21-2020 , 05:04 PM

#41278

Mig

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 2,933

Have not played online for the past 2 years.

Welcome back to me I guess... This month results so far. 1/2 2/5.

Hard to play A+ when not winning a single all in. Same old same old

Quote

02-21-2020 , 07:26 PM

#41279

DevWil

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 2,145

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mig

Have not played online for the past 2 years.

Welcome back to me I guess... This month results so far. 1/2 2/5.

Hard to play A+ when not winning a single all in. Same old same old

Yikes. <3. Thought I had EV diff issues...

Quote

02-21-2020 , 09:27 PM

#41280

mephisto

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 5,372

Mig, aren’t you the guy that had the insane below EV graph over 120k hands that I saw back in the day?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Quote

02-21-2020 , 10:18 PM

#41281

MastaAces

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 10,140

Quote:

Originally Posted by mephisto

Mig, aren’t you the guy that had the insane below EV graph over 120k hands that I saw back in the day?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

He's posted several large sample size graphs over the years. Mig, would you be so kind as to post a lifetime graph (or as close to it as possible)? It's quite the sight to behold IIRC.

Quote

02-21-2020 , 10:51 PM

#41282

Mig

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 2,933

It was that chart :

Pretty sure I never had the inverse run. Can't remember ever running much over ev for a sustained period. Good thing I had a good rakeback plan back then. Would have been busto many times over.

Quote

02-22-2020 , 07:33 AM

#41283

mephisto

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 5,372

Mig, your graphs are nuts. You should create a PGC thread and post a lifetime graph there or even here.

Going below EV for over 100k hands is absolutely insane and we need to hear about your tips on you stayed sane through all of it. We need to know how big of a sample you needed in order for the EV to balance out. You'd think it would happen at around the 100k mark but your graphs prove that it doesn't.

Pls post more often.

Quote

02-22-2020 , 10:23 AM

#41284

Mig

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 2,933

Quote:

Originally Posted by mephisto

That's the thing tho, it never balances out really.

Do 1 Billion coin flip for 1$ each. Someone is likely to end up being down 1 Million after a few iterations.

I haven't done the math in a long time but runs like I just had are likely to happen around 2-5% of the time IIRC?

Quote

02-22-2020 , 04:38 PM

#41285

MastaAces

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 10,140

Quote:

Originally Posted by mephisto

Mig, your graphs are nuts. You should create a PGC thread and post a lifetime graph there or even here.

Going below EV for over 100k hands is absolutely insane and we need to hear about your tips on you stayed sane through all of it. We need to know how big of a sample you needed in order for the EV to balance out. You'd think it would happen at around the 100k mark but your graphs prove that it doesn't.

Pls post more often.

What? Running somewhat significantly above our below EV during 100k stretches happens all the time. Now, +/-100 buyins over the same amount of hands is much, much more rare.

Quote

02-22-2020 , 04:46 PM

#41286

mephisto

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 5,372

Quote:

Originally Posted by MastaAces

What? Running somewhat significantly above our below EV during 100k stretches happens all the time. Now, +/-100 buyins over the same amount of hands is much, much more rare.

I mean’t running below EV +\-100 BI’s.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Quote

02-24-2020 , 12:26 AM

#41287

El Tlatoani

newbie

Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 23

I thought I ran bad but you are on another level. Stay strong brother.

Quote

02-24-2020 , 11:18 AM

#41288

salmonLOVER

newbie

Join Date: Mar 2016 Posts: 16

Hi all,
I'm currently playing from France on Winamax but I'm going to London this summer.
I was wondering what's the rake % on ps.com or party ?!
I'm kinda tired of paying 23bb/100 playing mostly PLO20 / PLO30

Quote

02-25-2020 , 09:26 AM

#41289

Mig

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 2,933

Update for my month so far. Should have kept playing live instead

std dev/100 = 136
Observed w/r = -5.28
Ev w/r = 3.64
BI unver ev = 180

Chance of a run like this occuring : 1 in 1000

If I nit pick the start of the run bad

std dev/100 = 136
Observed w/r = -7.87
Ev w/r = 2.61
BI under ev = 210 BI

Chance of a run like this occuring : 3 in 10000

Last edited by Mig; 02-25-2020 at 09:32 AM.

Quote

02-27-2020 , 04:07 AM

#41290

.isolated

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 21,495

Flopping quads with a redraw. Shockingly, I got no action here

Quote

02-29-2020 , 08:26 AM

#41291

2+2=5

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 3,540

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mig

Update for my month so far. Should have kept playing live instead

std dev/100 = 136
Observed w/r = -5.28
Ev w/r = 3.64
BI unver ev = 180

Chance of a run like this occuring : 1 in 1000

If I nit pick the start of the run bad

std dev/100 = 136
Observed w/r = -7.87
Ev w/r = 2.61
BI under ev = 210 BI

Chance of a run like this occuring : 3 in 10000

holy f*ck, mig you still grinding? what sites are you on?

Quote

02-29-2020 , 08:26 PM

#41292

Mig

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 2,933

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2+2=5

holy f*ck, mig you still grinding? what sites are you on?

Party poker. Haven't played online in over 2 years. Decided to grind a little

Update of my month....

-305 BI below EV in 265k hands

Who of you have all my EV ?

This run is now 8 in 1 million. Gonna buy a lottery ticket soon

Last edited by Mig; 02-29-2020 at 08:39 PM.

Quote

03-01-2020 , 03:39 PM

#41293

2+2=5

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 3,540

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mig

Party poker. Haven't played online in over 2 years. Decided to grind a little

Update of my month....

-305 BI below EV in 265k hands

Who of you have all my EV ?

This run is now 8 in 1 million. Gonna buy a lottery ticket soon

sick. how is this real. i'm over ev on stars. losing player over the 150k hands but break even thanks to running good.

Quote

03-01-2020 , 04:21 PM

#41294

heat555

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 546

This can't be real, can it? I guess I'm lucky to run close to EV all of my life.

Quote

03-02-2020 , 07:17 AM

#41295

krolewicz

adept

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,065

Hi!

A friend of mine asked me for some poker book titles, as her younger brother is getting intrested in the game and it's his birthday soon. Are there in 2020 any positions that are not completely outdated the day they hit sale? Thanks for any help!

(And oh, it does not have to be PLO i believe.)

Quote

03-03-2020 , 08:12 PM

#41296

Mig

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 2,933

Update :

Played poorly today, beginning to lose it ...

# hands played : 316 000
ev win rate : 2.69
real winrate : -8.95
std / 100 : 130

Buy ins under ev = 362

Plugging the above numbers in the poker dope simulator :

0.0000%

Quote

03-04-2020 , 01:16 AM

#41297

MastaAces

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 10,140

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mig

Update :

Played poorly today, beginning to lose it ...

# hands played : 316 000
ev win rate : 2.69
real winrate : -8.95
std / 100 : 130

Buy ins under ev = 362

Plugging the above numbers in the poker dope simulator :

0.0000%

Obviously you're playing terribly. Please refer to this thread. You're welcome.

Quote

03-04-2020 , 07:50 PM

#41298

tmy

stranger

Join Date: Mar 2020 Posts: 10

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mig

Party poker. Haven't played online in over 2 years. Decided to grind a little

Update of my month....

-305 BI below EV in 265k hands

Who of you have all my EV ?

This run is now 8 in 1 million. Gonna buy a lottery ticket soon

Hey Mig, my condolences.

I'm assuming this is 99% FastForward. Isn't this a very very strong indicator for bots in the pool?

Greets

tmy

Quote

03-04-2020 , 08:39 PM

#41299

Mig

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 2,933

Quote:

Originally Posted by tmy

Hey Mig, my condolences.

I'm assuming this is 99% FastForward. Isn't this a very very strong indicator for bots in the pool?

Greets

tmy

Card sharing could definitively be a plausible explanation but it is more often than not playing 3-4 handed top. A lot of the big grinders are clearly human imo.

I rarely see wtf hands being played. Often times all action is self explanatory but how likely is it that there are bot at 2/5 PLO fast forward ?

Not sure about the states of online bots for PLO, so I can't really say.

Anyone else experiencing massive under EV on party poker fastforward ?

Last edited by Mig; 03-04-2020 at 08:45 PM.