I can't possibly be that big of a bankroll nit, I know you always said that but damn, 500-600bi. I didn't just lose 110 buyins that is how much I've ran below EV. I've had stretches when I first started playing where I lost 50bi at plo5 but that wasn't me running way below ev it was mostly just sucking and playing poorly. I could justify that because it was such a small stake and it was from bad play, not just random eff you and every hand you play for a two month stretch. I've ran 3-5 buyins under EV every day I've played PLO except for 2-3 days in the last 2 months.

I have a full-time job in IT. Poker is not my main source of income. I have plenty in the bank, not going to be starving or homeless. I am bankroll nit IRL with over a year in expenses saved up.

I'm in the process of debating if I should redeposit or not. (have to figure out bitcoin). I would like to know if this is some really crazy variance and it won't happen again or basically everyone goes through this. I got one of my checks from poker yesterday and I have another one coming next week but I can't take it if variance is going to be this badly.

When it comes to running over/under EV omaha does what omaha wants. It's hard to swallow but 100bi under EV here 100 over there, it just happens. It's ridiculous.

Have you played around with a variance calculator? Man you can expect the dumbest damn results and if you're one of the unlucky ones.. Yea, not much to do about it.

100bi under is brutal, no matter what people tell you. esp in this shot period of hands.

I have tried to play with it but I don't know what I'm doing. I have no idea what to use for the standard deviation which throws everything off. I'm going to mess around with some more this afternoon.

If I plug in the same std deviation you have and my actual winrate for my entire career the chart below says that going on a 100 buyin downswing in 50k hands is .15% for me. So I guess I am a very lucky person.

If I use my actual EV for those 50k hands it's a more reasonable 16.5% chance of happening, unlucky but it's not that huge. I'm going to have to play around with this more because it sure looks like I've heavily underrated variance.

Looking for a dedicated micro plo study partner who is serious and wants to get better to move up stakes msg me if you're interested Skype kyle-cronin

110bi in 50k hands is very sick, brutal like sauhnd said . its very rare, but as you can see it happens . you having one of the worst runs possible.

after almost 10years playing this game, whenever i have a big downswing, i feel like a fish too , this felling never stop, lol .

It's the nature of poker. I have run below ev lifetime in all forms of internet poker except for one spin n go bink which puts me above ev overall. It's stupid and cruel.

7 years ago I had a bar and used to organise tourneys. These two young Scousers used to come frequently. One was a hotshot salesman and his friend was an aimless hamger on, with an alarming coke habit threatening to submerge him.

One week only the hanger-on came to the tourney. He told me the salesman had fallen from a topfloor balcony to his death at a party they were both, and he was so shaken would change his life. That was the last time he came to the tourney.

In the ensuing years the hanger-on gave up coke, started a business which grew and led to bigger businesses. Now he is semi retired and back to playing poker (and coke...)

Cliffs - you can fiddle with the variables but variance gets everyone in the end.

Sent from my Mi-4c using Tapatalk

Personally i would not try it for even 10:1..

Some people are just running way over EV in all aspects of life fwiw..

Sounds like a brutal downswing, Darkfangs! You're Aussie right playing on Stars?

Sounds like someone is fishing for my stars name, no luck there! I'm American playing on Bovada/ACR. I was a 100 reg until February when I move to 200. Starting shot taking at 3/6 in March prior to the downswing. My winrate didn't really change much between the stakes very minor decreases. I started withdrawing 3k every allowed period in Feb and kept doing that through the downswing which I should have probably stopped which made me move down and it kept going badly and I'd have to move down again. I moved up so quickly because of the nightly 5k 30+3 PLO tournament. The thing was very soft and I'd final table that 2-3 times a week usually winning it once a week but it has since been removed probably because of huge overlays. (tourny hands weren't counted in my hand numbers and I don't download them into pt4). There isn't a single plo donkament worth playing anymore on the site except for during promo series.

I wish I could play zoom on stars, it seems so much more fun and you get to play so many more hands so even if you hit a downswing it'd end much faster. (Greener grass on the other side syndrome.)

I might try out live, there is a casino about an hour drive away, their website says PLO runs sometimes, might give them a call.

Thought I might make a BBV post.

Life beat: Just had a learning driver back into my car trying to reverse out of a park next to mine. 2.6k AUD worth of panel damage, guy wasn't insured w/ 3rd party. RIP.

Brag: Won a trainwreck of a 2200bb HU PLO pot @$2/$4 at a private game last weekend against a very smart and aggressive regular (and also good friend of mine). We had been playing for 4-5 hours and had amassed some big stacks from the whale regs. Hero is BTN w/ AKJ9ds, nut clubs. 1 straddle, 2 callers, I 3bet, SB(villain) 4bets, everyone folds to me, I 5bet, he 6 bets, I call. (Note: the 4/5bet is by no means standard but the dynamic with villain is such that this is standard as he has a relatively wide 3bet/4bet range). Flop QcTc5d, he checks, I bet 3/4 pot, he x/r for pot, I jam/ GII. Villain shows AAQQss. We run twice because we're not full degen, I scoop both runs. So sick, mega ultra deep trainwreck flops are the best, nothing quite like nearly having a heart attack watching the cards run out in a 4 figure pot lmao.

Is it just me or have the zoom pools on stars been much much softer due to the promo this week?! (For me 50z)

I was having a typically bad session at penny poker (loose calls and shoves) until this came up.

I think he actually mis-read his hand, was playing solid before.

Hand Information
Pot Limit Omaha, 0.2 BB (5 handed).
Hand History converter courtesy of pokerhandreplays.com

Table Information
Seat: 1 jo0408el ($65.77) Big Blind
Seat: 2 sussex_kid ($27.47)
Seat: 4 nig_jo ($84.66)
Seat: 7 magiclasalle ($49.33) Dealer
Seat: 9 Hero ($50.16) Small Blind
Dealt to Hero


Preflop (Pot:0.3)
sussex_kid FOLD
nig_jo FOLD
magiclasalle RAISE $0.7
Hero RAISE $2.3
jo0408el FOLD
magiclasalle CALL $1.6

Flop(Pot: $4.9)


Hero CHECK
magiclasalle BET $4.8
Hero RAISE $19.2
magiclasalle RAISE $33.6
Hero ALL-IN
magiclasalle ALL-IN
Hero RETURN $0.83

Turn(Pot: $99.69)



River(Pot: $99.69)


Showdown:
magiclasalle SHOWS

Hero SHOWS

Hero wins the pot: $99.69

I played some 25z last night and it seemed pretty soft. Lots of high VPIP players in the pool.

i think the 200z pool is slightly better then usual however i think the promo was more aimed at micro/low stakes games.

like 96% of this volume is plo25 zoom, rest plo50zoom. Is this a good winrate? what is the maximum winrate possible for this stake? Also people should stop crying about the rake trap

nice run/nice volume. still a rake trap...

And here I was upset I lost 12 ss PLO50 BI yesterday, which brings me to the question does SS plo really reduce variance? Iv been taking a few shots at $50PLO sitting with 40BB I ran $40 to $300 within two days then lost $200. I lost it in classic PLO fashion set over set, running nut straights into backdoor runner runner, boards pairing on the river etc.

Now I sat short at this stake due to roll issues, but in hindsight does it really matter am I losing too much fold equity I would normally have by not sitting deep enough? My thinking is normally I can get 25% of my stack in pre if there is a open, 40% if there is a 3bet. The trade off is I have basically 0 fold equity, but would this be a advantage or disadvantage.

Basically is the best way to grind a roll to SS or bite the bullet and only sit a games I can play deep at? I only ask because I want to see if its possible to run a roll up from a small deposit anymore, every time I get on track I run into these walls once I approach the $300 range each time I started with $20. Im still new to PLO so im not sure if I just suck or if this is normal, or possibly both, maybe there is a specific ss style for PLO and Im being too standard. idk I feel like im going nuts trying to understand does anyone else get PLO headaches? What did you do to get your graph trending up?

I only played short stack plo (30bb) one month just to learn it and so I could play against it better. From my experience the variance was less but not by much. We basically just eliminate the variance where we GII with huge stacks with 50% equity and are flipping for tons of BBs. My bb/100 was about 60% of my normal winrate because there just isn't much play at short stack plo. You basically have no real choices as everything is pretty obvious and when you flop anything it's GII otherwise you fold. You have less fold equity since you can't leverage you're flop bet that if they call you'll make another huge bet on turn and it just takes away a lot of play options.

I was basically making all my money on people playing terrible preflop holdings. Trying to set mine when I 3-bet them with close to a pot sized bet on the flop left to go. It made life very hard for people to call it off on the flop without connecting and it was very hard to be exploited.

Short stacking does have huge advantages when there are tons of big stacks at the table playing deep stack plo but that's a whole different topic.

Also short stack plo sucks at lower stakes as it just amplifies the rake trap.

This is beast im done bitching about variance Im sure im just playing bad.

Also i have to note i am not some midstakes+ player, this was my bread and butter limit

At micros what is the big difference you made btw I only have American sites to play on. Maybe I'm calling too much when I don't have the odds?

gona be streaming some zoom plo50 tonight at 7pm moscow time over on twitch (shuller_a1t channel). havent posted here in a while so will be cool to see some familiar faces

Looks like I've got a full schedule of procrastination incoming. Mid-stakes crusher streaming in a few hours, SHR Bowl tomorrow.

Looks like Benny was missed after all . English or Russian?

Your EV winnings are like 2,5k you paid 3k rake and think it's fine? Anyway, solid graph Sir, thanks for posting.