Shoved with the Nuts: KK65 on K52. Big Mistake! - Small Stakes Pot Limit Omaha

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Shoved with the Nuts: KK65 on K52. Big Mistake!

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10-21-2023 , 03:49 PM

bigoilboomer

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2022 Posts: 134

BTN straddles for 10
SB calls
BB calls
UTG+1 Nit calls
Hero calls Kc Kh 6h 5h
MP calls
HJ calls
CO Huge Fish calls
BTN checks

Pot 80

Flop Ks 5c 2s

SB bets 25
BB folds
Nit raises to 100
I raise to 300
MP folds
HJ folds
Huge Fish calls
BTN folds
SB folds
Nit shoves for 815

I get excited and pot to 2,850 (200 more behind). Then I realize what I big mistake I made.

Huge Fish tanks with 43xx, eventually folds. Nit has As 4c 3c 2s. He can never have less than wrap + nut flush draw. I needed to call to get dead money from the Huge Fish.

I’m new to PLO. Do these spots come up often?

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10-21-2023 , 04:03 PM

wazz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 14,755

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigoilboomer

Do these spots come up often?

Somewhat, but it's basically never going to be a mistake to get in top set = nuts < ~200bbs deep.

The worst equity I could find is top set and second set (i.e. blocking redraw) vs straight flush draw + full wrap + bdfd giving 32.8% equity for the current nuts:

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 Professional)
Omaha Hi, Generic syntax
Board - 5c8cJs
PLAYER_1 JdJh8d8h
PLAYER_2 6c7c9sts
820 trials (exhaustive)

All-in Equity

	Equity %	Wins Hi %	Ties Hi %	Wins Hi Count	Ties Hi Count
JdJh8d8h	32.8049%	32.8049%	0.0000%	269	0
6c7c9sts	67.1951%	67.1951%	0.0000%	551	0

One saving grace to bear in mind is that you can't have the full 20 out wrap at the same time as the nut flush draw. In practice all that means is that in headsup pots, the full wrap + flush draw may not want to get all the money in when they may be up against top set and the nut flush draw.

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10-21-2023 , 05:03 PM

bigoilboomer

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2022 Posts: 134

I know the Nit and I are pretty close to 50/50. But I needed to invite the Big Fish in when he’s basically dead or only eating some of the Nit’s equity. He would’ve called the Nit’s 815 all-in with just 43xx. I shouldn’t have shoved to shut the Big Fish out when I know the Nit has every draw against me already covered.

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10-21-2023 , 05:31 PM

monikrazy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 28,055

Its fine. Hero can mostly ignore the tiny bet and treat villain's raise as a large initial bet instead. Fast-playing top set with limited ability to improve is relatively standard and profitable, no need to overanalyze just because we ran into the top of villain's range. There are plenty of other hands we extract more value from and taking the hand down immediately if everyone folds is still a good outcome.

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10-21-2023 , 10:59 PM

grant2

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 9,530

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigoilboomer

I’m new to PLO. Do these spots come up often?

Are you asking if it's "often" that you've got vulnerable nuts against a low-stack nit & a bigstack fish? ... like it's not super common but you're going to run into it again eventually, sure...

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10-21-2023 , 11:35 PM

nootaboos

grinder

Join Date: May 2023 Posts: 550

Standard.

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10-22-2023 , 01:14 PM

IntheFold

adept

Join Date: Dec 2022 Posts: 990

nit more often has middle set imo here but with those cards being other top part of his range i think calling is proper like you said to price in the fish. basically your avoiding 16 cards on turn so its worth it here in this situation imo to call

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10-23-2023 , 07:04 PM

JAZ42

stranger

Join Date: Oct 2023 Posts: 13

Agree with the other comments, and yes, these spots come up super often, especially online (PLO50 and up) You need to get the money in and hope for a clean runout or the board to pair. I think you played it well.

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