[HIGH] Sexy River checkraise bluff - Small Stakes Pot Limit Omaha

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[HIGH] Sexy River checkraise bluff

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11-07-2023 , 11:50 AM

PhatPots

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 3,963

2/5 PLO, Villain is a good player. A bit laggy, and probably views me as nitty.

Villain is 125BB
Hero has 100BB
We are 5 handed

Preflop: Hero has A

in BB
2 folds, Villain raises to 3.4BB, Sb folds, hero calls

Flop: K

Hero checks, Villain bets 5.4BB, hero calls

Turn: K

Hero checks, Villain checks

River: T

Hero checks, Villain bets 18BB (Pot), Hero raises to 58BB

Love it? hate it?

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11-07-2023 , 12:23 PM

pokerfan655

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 1,423

Probably a good flop to x/r - you have the heart draw, can rep 2 pr+, and you have more 22/33/etc in your range than he does. The river pot is odd by the villain - I would think he bets Kx+ OTT, so all I see is TT or a bluff. I think hands like AA/QQ might check behind as what could you have that would call here? Weird spot - to x/r we need him betting AA/QQ a lot here, to call we need him never betting AA/QQ and only bluffs, and to fold we need him just betting Kx+. Don't really love any options tbh - all seem marginal.

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11-07-2023 , 08:46 PM

wazz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 14,755

Quote:

Originally Posted by pokerfan655

I'm afraid I don't like this analysis. Flop is not a good spot to c/r - he is far more likely than us to have KK and there's a bunch of hands that have us beat that are going to call us down. Only a Q or J for a bdgs. We're going to have plenty of far better candidates for a c/r. We kinda need at least a good K and/or at least a gs+nfd.

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11-08-2023 , 12:28 AM

MarkD

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 4,625

Quote:

Originally Posted by wazz

Kinda hate. You've got to have a pretty solid image as well as know that he's capable of laying down hands. LAGs don't like laying down hands very much, so he could just be looking you up with all of his Kx. He's probably calling with all his boats, and you're blocking the hand you want him to have.

I'm afraid I don't like this analysis. Flop is not a good spot to c/r - he is far more likely than us to have KK and there's a bunch of hands that us beat that are going to call us down. Only a Q or J for a bdgs. We're going to have plenty of far better candidates for a c/r. We kinda need at least a good K and/or at least a gs+nfd.

I agree with all of this except the bolded part. I don’t believe this is true at all, but would be curious to see you show it.

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11-08-2023 , 12:58 AM

monikrazy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 28,073

There are a few reasons I dislike this bluff - not least among them, that call could be a reasonable option against LAG, or at least more profitable than raise.

Having the nut flush draw also makes raise less attractive.

Will check this in a solver later if I remember.

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11-08-2023 , 11:17 AM

PhatPots

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 3,963

Thanks for the input. He had AQTT, I thought that given that I have a T, him having TT was much less likely.

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