Hello,

I recently switched to PLO grind and im losing all the major pots and run like ****. I wonder if these swings are normal?? Starting to lose hope here. Since start of the year:

33k hands 1/2, ran 51bi below EV

70k hands 50/1, 51bi below EV as well

54k hands .25/.50, 29bi below EV

Cheers!

Be more aggressive on earlier streets.

How recently did you switch? Are you studying? What kind of hands are you getting it in with?

Ive been playing quite a lot PLO tourneys in the past, but in January I decided switch to mainly PLO cash grind after few months break. Main reason is that I can play any time and I like shorter sessions nowadays. I guess my hands are pretty standard? Heavy draws vs sets and made hands vs draws and cant just win. stats are 30/20/10 ish. I am not studying but been thinking about it especially if my luck dont turn by end of the month. Need a break then.

Is this swing normal?

157k hands and you're down 131 buy-ins in ev? Obviously it isn't normal.

Gordian knot cut: You're getting unlucky AND you're playing like ****!

Glad I could help

Seriously, you're at a sample size where the results should largely reflect your ability. Are you aware of the "suckout game" nature of Omaha and all its variants, to the extent that the best hand on the flop can very often be a massive underdog? Do you not put any money in without the (current) nuts or a draw to the nuts? Are you using prudent preflop hand selection? (As with all poker games, that usually involves playing fewer hands.)

You gotta find the leak and plug it if you want to reverse this course, but y'know, nowhere in The Great Rules of the Cosmos does it say that you have to keep playing a game at which you're consistently losing.

OP has not given winrates. Exactly how does ability affect running over or under EV?
Check your opponents, see if there is a specific group you play against a lot that are running well over ev vs you but not getting in vs each other. It's entirely possible to be that unlucky over that sample size, but there is a chance collusion could be a factor too.

As the sample sizes get larger, it converges on certainty that the results are, in fact, reflective of skill rather than variance (luck). It never gets to certainty, but it gets close enough to make an honest evaluation.

Today I ran bad.
Me: OK.
Last week I ran bad.
Me: OK.
Last month I ran bad.
Me: OK.
This last year, I ran bad.
Me: No, you didn't.

Trackers only do ev calculations when you get all-in before the river. If you are running under ev, it means you won less from all-in situations than expected - i.e., you were unlucky. Running over or under ev has nothing to do with your skill level. Few people understand just how brutal variance can be.

Yeah of course I put money in with all kind of garbage, but the biggest pots tend to be those ones when everyone have something nice. But you are true about playing like ****. Shouldnt take a peak at hem during session. makes me tilt seeing **** like this over and over again. But yeah i guess I need a beer or few.

exactly. and especially in PLO allin ev isn't everything when you factor in card removal. OP I'd start by saying before you rip it in next time start thinking of possible hands for all players who put in some $ not just the player allin with you.

Few days break didnt help. One of the longest sessions this year and brutal run continues.

WTF is going on really???!!! TILTILTILTILT



$0.50/$1 Pot Limit Omaha Hi / 6 PLAYERS / iPoker

Blinds6$0.50/$1
UTGknifeglad382$89.40
UTG+1Hero$302.79
COhornetblank32$96.23
DGarrrrrrMc$232.79
SBsetsober324$100.83
BBSkrue999$139.67
Preflop

Hero is UTG+1$1.506
7J9J
knifeglad382 calls $1, Hero raises to $4.50, hornetblank32 calls $4.50, GarrrrrrMc calls $4.50, 1 fold, Skrue999 calls $3.50, knifeglad382 calls $3.50

Flop

$235
J25
Skrue999 checks, knifeglad382 checks, Hero bets $20.24, 1 fold, GarrrrrrMc raises to $83.72, Skrue999 folds, knifeglad382 goes all-in $84.90, Hero goes all-in $298.29, GarrrrrrMc goes all-in $144.57

Turn

$634.483
J25A
River

$634.483
J25A3
Showdown

Hero7J9J
GarrrrrrMc10545
knifeglad38222A9
Hero lost $302.79

hornetblank32 lost $4.50

Skrue999 lost $5.50

knifeglad382 lost $89.40

GarrrrrrMc wins $560.48(net +$327.69)



Great stuff again and again


Blinds5$0.50/$1
UTGSnout$244.73
COHero$429.95
Dbf355140$68.06
SBSLCSMYSXYSBY$100
BBNaahKiller$463.75
Preflop

Hero is CO$1.505
A765
Snout raises to $3.50, Hero raises to $12, 2 folds, NaahKiller calls $11, Snout raises to $48.50, Hero calls $36.50, NaahKiller calls $36.50

Flop

$1463
543
NaahKiller checks, Snout bets $146, Hero goes all-in $381.45, NaahKiller folds, Snout goes all-in $50.23

Turn

$723.682
5437
River

$723.682
54376
Showdown

HeroA765
Snout9AA8
Hero lost $429.95

NaahKiller lost $49.50

Snout wins $534.46(net +$289.73)

Listen if you play poker seriously you should be able to know if you have an edge or not regardless of results - if you don't know then you probably don't have an edge.

True and to be honest im not so sure about that yet. Hard to say if im just running cold or what. I know im Tilting too easily at the moment. I guess I ll play some tournaments for few days and try cash a bit later when tilt cools down.

i crushed a particular site for like 7 years playing every day without having a losing month. Around 2018 i think these guys or their equivalant started playing on the site. i ran 100 buy ins under ev in one month after 7 years of running basically neutral ev. My winrate was 13/bb per 100 hands over maybe a half a million hands which should have (and did up until 2018) reduced my variance.

I heard a very smart person, maybe Ben Sulsky say that collusion in PLO from card sharing presents itself to the players in the games as just running dogshit awful, way under ev. I hated casinos and said all the time "ill never be a live pro". Now I am a live pro who only plays heads up games online. **** the guys that ruined ring PLO games online.

The ev line just kept going up and the results line just cratered and was getting worse as the card sharers got better at maximizing what they could steal from me and the other players.

When I played in live rooms everything was back to normal, if i got it in with 50% i'd win my share. When I play heads up games, even against guys with RTA online everything feels fair and in the long run you will reach your expectation. The 6max games on the site are insanely colluded now. These cheaters are persistant in being as annoying as possible and not respecting heads up matches. No heads up tables on a poker site in 2023 is absolutely insane.

If you play them heads up they're terrible, i understand not everyone has learned hu poker, but they are used to running way above ev and knowing like 8-12 dead cards. When they actually have to play poker they're completely lost, and after you win a couple buyins the team shows up to fill the game. If you keep playing that game you will eventually get it in "good" a bunch of times, to your knowledge, and lose every ****ing one, because in actuallity they're putting in hands with way more equity than you. They analyze what the whole team has preflop and make a plan. If they share eachothers cards, as in block eachothers ranks and suits etc, they try to squeeze everyone out of the pot. If they can't do that they all just fold bc their hands are essentially dead. The funniest thing is the rare time you realize they're all squeezing and resqueezing the dead cards, which implies your cards are more likely live, and start ripping in everything decent and scooping. As fun as that is they obviously adjust their strat quickly and just muck pre after you scoop a few.

This is becoming a rant but think about how many ****ing ways they can cheat. Something as simple as a guy is cold 5 betting, probably has aces, and one of the cheating teammates can say "hey man i had an ace in my hand this deal" Now the cheaters can just rip in their garbage and the poor guy with aces gets trampled again because he plays unkowingly with these scumbags every day. That's one example. If a winning player knew 8 dead cards they would never lose.

the 100 buyins under EV in a month ****ed me up mentally. Online poker was my dream and passion and to not be able to play ring games online anymore honestly ****ing sucks. Yes, I know there are still honest games running. If you look on WSOP.com you see known players play a 25/50 game and that's a fair game to play. But no site is completely safe from PLO collusion. You leave those games and play in an honest one and you feel like you're running insanely hot just to not get scooped in every allin.

the fact that some fair games run does not fix the main issue, which is that every other plo 6max is having money siphoned out of it when that money should be in the poker economy, won by good players, not cheaters, and move up the stakes naturally like it used to. people are in these games trying to make a living, and trying to make their dreams come true. we all know the rake is a bitch in plo, but this is the real rake and it's way more of a bitch, and it's ****ed the PLO economy at all levels unless you personally know who you're playing and trust them. /rant

idk how to edit my post first post in like 7 years and i put it in the wrong thread. had a bunch of threads open about collusion in online 6max games and the groups doing it. although i do see someone here did mention collusion in this thread so my rant is not entirely out of place. And honestly this is some of the most important info i could have put in a return post. Be careful where and who u play with online and if something feels fishy nowadays stop before you drive yourself crazy thinking it will turn around.. Find somewhere you KNOW nobody is colluding.

Sounds like you shouldn’t play on iPoker. Personally I think people should shop around for different sites after running reasonably bad, just to protect from collusion. Prolly around 40-50BI under ev meh