Villain has TAGgy stats (20/16, 60% F3B, 29% AFq), that's about all the read I have. Thoughts?

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha High, $1.00 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

UTG ($308.05)
MP ($193.70)
Hero ($233.90)
Button ($4.45)
SB ($401.15)
BB ($240.40)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q, 9, J, 8.
UTG raises to $3, MP calls $3, Hero calls $3, 2 folds, BB calls $2.

Flop: ($13.10) 6, J, 3 (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP checks, Hero bets $7.25, BB folds, UTG folds, MP calls $7.25.

Turn: ($27.60) 7 (2 players)
MP bets $20, Hero calls $20.

River: ($67.60) 8 (2 players)
MP bets $44, Hero raises to $197.2

Villain is getting 2.3:1 to call.

fold turn ldo, and don't really like w/o blockers

lol at folding turn

i think it's an ok bluff, i would prob size it a bit less tho, maybe like 155-160. would be better if we had the jack of clubs since that removes a lot of good fds from villain's range

Doesn't villains line makes perfect sense for a BD flush like AcJcxx or KcJcxx?

Imo when a 29%AF takes this line he's got the goods like always cause 29% is pretty passive... Unless he spazzes or something but there's no indication of tilt or what so ever.

I guess ur calling turn to rep clubs if he'd check a club river?
What's your merit for raising the river?

Also flop betsize is a bit low, just over half pot. Better make it like $10 to discourage calls.

that's a pretty sick line to be fair, I'm not sure if full shove would be optimal or necessary... Ac4c5* KKc4c5 n stuff is about all to be worried bar idiocy/genius and his turn range is much wider, question needs more reads though, cc:bf ratio in his range/tempo, some players they always barrel flushes only here, and how aware is he of you bluffing... hard to say

do we think villian is ever calling w/o a flush here?

i dont think blockers matter much here.. most of villains range that XC flop and lead this turn are low rundowns type hands ... therefore he shoudnt have many nutty flush cards....

however im not sure id shove.. people tend to call me a lot when i do that lol... although if id chooose someone to do that with, would be someone like the described villian...

do you think villain ever has less than a (close to nut) flush when he bets river?

I agree he almost always has a flush when he bets river, but makes you think it's a nutty one?

+1

Your flop bet is way too holdem sized in that it's appropriate for a way ahead/way behind situation - there's hardly any of those in omaha. Equities run real close and you're giving almost everything odds to call and make your life hell. Bet $10-11 on flop.

On the turn, given his small betsize, this is a great spot to peel planning to either hit your straight and value bet or bluff a club if checked to. When he leads the turn I think he almost always has a straight since he knows most people are checking back a jack or draw on that turn.

Your bluff is probably OK if this guy is an unimaginative regular he won't call without at least a Q-A high flush. I'm kind of worried that his river value betting range might be too strong for you to do this though and you almost certainly beat his bluffs. Once again all of my comments are assuming this is a standard reg.

he always has showdown value on this river and you have no reads

i would call river ^^

fold > call > raise IMO

oh nvm I missed villain turn lead, I fold river

i d fold, too. this bluff is too expensive imo and villains range is likely strong when it is tough for him to have bluffs.

Flop:
All you have is top pair and are not a favorite over anyone that would call you. There are some good cards that can improve your equity on the urn if you don’t allow yourself to get check-raised off your hand. I would check and see if I got some improvement on the turn.

On a flop of Jh 6s 3c, here is your equity against a few selected hands:
**** (a completely random hand): 59%
J*** (a random jack): 42%
54** (a random 54): 47%


Turn:
You have TP + OESD but there are two clubs on board that could plausibly it with villain’s hand so not all of your outs are clean. I agree with flash75 and would fold on the turn. I don’t see why this_passing thinks folding is lol. He is representing a 54 and your equity is only 16% against that hand. Here is your equity against a few other hands he could have. Unless he is semi-bluffing, your equity isn’t good.
vs. 54** : 16%
vs. 2pr + NFD: (Ac*c63): 39%
vs. T98*: 75%
vs. 77**: 19%
vs. naked NFD (Ac*c**): 48%

River:
I would just fold. You are risking $163 to win $111, so your bluff has to work at least 59% of the time to break even. Without the nutblocker, I don’t think it will work that often. I agree with Syndrom that it is very plausible that he bet the turn with some kind of combo hand that includes two clubs, and that someone who has a 29% AF is pretty likely to have the goods when he takes this line. I also agree with this_passing that your bluff would be stronger if you had the Jc and that if you’re going to bluff you should bluff smaller, although in this case it didn’t matter since he only had about $120 more behind when you raised.

not sure if we're doing this because we put him on a str8 but check/calling and leading turn is often a little something that picked up a draw in my experience