Omaha Hi Simulation ?
600,000 trials (Randomized)
Hand Equity Wins Ties
kcqsjsqd 32.13% 191,653 2,205
aa,KK 67.87% 406,142 2,205
Omaha Hi Simulation ?
600,000 trials (Randomized)
Hand Equity Wins Ties
kcqsjsqd 35.62% 211,089 5,281
aa,KK,$0g:15%,$1g:15% 64.38% 383,630 5,281
Vs Aces or Kings, we have 32%. Throw in zero and 1 gap rundowns in top 15% of hands, we fly up to a whopping 35%.
So the math says it's break evenish, but if the guy is opening/4 betting real loose, maybe our equity starts to look better, and possibly if he 4bet/folds occasionally, it could conceivably be a +ev play. But don't know any villains that do that...
Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7 K A K
Hero raises to $6, MP folds, CO raises to $21, 3 folds, Hero calls $15
Flop: ($45) 5 3 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $32.06, Hero raises to $138.93, CO folds
Spoiler:
Results: $109.12 pot ($3 rake)
Final Board: 5 3 5
CO mucked and lost (-$53.06 net)
Hero mucked 7 K A K and won $106.12 ($53.06 net)
Any value in c/c his C-bet? Would it change if I had position?
IMO you were semibluffing with the best hand. He probably 3bet with something like Jt98, jt87 qjt8 etc and just missed.
I don't really see how we hit that flop as UTG raiser except exactly the way we did, with an overpair and fd, so c/c would probably be fine to let him continue his bluff. If the flop is 886, 995, etc, I would not c/r this villain as he can have a lot of trips or boats in his hand.
If we were late position or bb, I think we can c/r this flop and rep a 5, but we as UTG rarely have a 5 in our range.
I'm not repping a 5. I was obv raising for value with my kings but knowing that it is tough for him to have a hand that can call.
The problem with this is that your hand is pretty much the nuts here and unlikely to be outdrawn especially as we have Ah blocker for AA and 7h for wrap plus fd combos. So there is little left in his range to extract value from.
Raising for value vs an opponent who is unlikely to call is a pretty clear leak
The problem with this is that your hand is pretty much the nuts here and unlikely to be outdrawn especially as we have Ah blocker for AA and 7h for wrap plus fd combos. So there is little left in his range to extract value from.
Raising for value vs an opponent who is unlikely to call is a pretty clear leak
The bolded part is my point. The thing is, if I c/c this flop he will most likely not barrel the turn and probably won't put anymore money into the pot unless he somehow outdraws me. Therefore it can't be a leak to value raise, but it might sub-optimal.
Even though it is unlikely that he can call my c/r I'm not sure c/c accomplishes anything. But I am obv wondering, otherwise I wouldn't have made the post.
The bolded part is my point. The thing is, if I c/c this flop he will most likely not barrel the turn and probably won't put anymore money into the pot unless he somehow outdraws me. Therefore it can't be a leak to value raise, but it might sub-optimal.
Even though it is unlikely that he can call my c/r I'm not sure c/c accomplishes anything. But I am obv wondering, otherwise I wouldn't have made the post.
Well it's almost certain that he doesn't call a flop raise.
We might still extract value from his air and there is also a River left to play.
It's a leak in my opinion by raising flop you end the hand and potentially lose out on more value on Turn or River
You can def 4bet it but you don't have to do it every time. Calling and taking a flop where we have a pretty good idea of his holding and he has close to zero idea about our holding is perfectly fine.
You can def 4bet it but you don't have to do it every time. Calling and taking a flop where we have a pretty good idea of his holding and he has close to zero idea about our holding is perfectly fine.
Villain is a very good thinking LAG playing 29/21/10 AF 3. He C-bets 60% when oop.
I often 3bet this but SB in the hand is a huge fish who saw lots of flops in single raised pots and made a lot of post flop mistakes, so I wanted him in.
Villain is a very good thinking LAG playing 29/21/10 AF 3. He C-bets 60% when oop.
I often 3bet this but SB in the hand is a huge fish who saw lots of flops in single raised pots and made a lot of post flop mistakes, so I wanted him in.
not too big of a shame in not 3betting since the 4 is kinda disconnected. would be a must 3bet if the 4 was a broadway card, 8 or 9.
i would play flop and turn mostly the same. river comes down to his turn barrel frequency but is generally not a good card to bluff for u since you would take a showdown with lots of made hands here i guess. by betting u would rep at least AKxx which would be a good hand to go for value so if u bet your value range is pretty narrow and your bluffing range wide.
its also a standard spot for villain to c/c with some mediocre hands which he cant b/c but are too strong to c/f and ppl (like u?) like to bet their missed club draws / combo draws^^