Quote:
Originally Posted by J0hny
i want him to lose fast
This is fundamentally wrong from a math perspective. The fact that there are 4 other pros doesn't really matter (you all have the same incentive to keep the fish in the game as long as possible).
I can explain the concept pretty simply.
Forget about rake. Let's say you have a 1bb advantage versus fish in every pot. If there is 0% variance, you win 1bb every hand. After 100 hands, you win 100bb.
With max variance, you can go all in with 50.5% vs 49.5% equity. Same expected value of 1bb per hand.
Of course, you prefer the 0% variance option because it allows you to realize your 1bb edge 100 times. You play a winning game 100 times, and win 100bb.
If you flip 50.5% vs 49.5%, now you only play a winning game 1 time. You win your 1bb in EV, then the game ends.
Bringing in other professionals doesn't change this basic math concept. It's tempting to want to selfishly stack the fish for yourself so the other pros can't get his chips.
But that's a fallacious way of thinking because your EV against the fish is still only 1bb.
By flipping with the fish, you are actually HELPING him.
Here's a simple hypo that clearly proves the point:
Imagine you're at a table with 5 pros and 1 fish. If there's 0% variance, the fish is GUARANTEED to lose all his money. On average, the pros will split his 100bb equally among themselves. Your EV is 20bb.
Now imagine you employ your donk strategy. You go all in with 50.5% equity. On average, you win 1bb. By minimizing your total hands, you minimize your profit.
If I was a pro at your table, I would actually encourage you to employ your donk strategy because it will actually help me.
If you flip with fish, there's a 51% chance you win. In that scenario, the game ends and I earn 0bb.
However, there's a 49% chance fish doubles up to 200bb. You donk out.
Now, me and the 3 other pros can split fish's 200bb equally. My EV in this runout is 50bb.
Averaging it together, when you employ your donk strategy: Your EV is 1bb, me and the 3 other pros each average roughly 25bb, and fish averages -100bb.
By donking with the fish, you kill your own action and let the other pros devour the fish 49% of the time when you're unlucky and bust.
Bottom line: You win money in poker by making + EV decisions. If you're a winning player, your goal is to play as many hands as possible. There is no shortcut that involves stacking fish with variance. You want to keep extracting EV for as long as possible.
Last edited by MegaWhale69; 04-15-2024 at 11:05 AM.