Quote:
I strongly disagree with this. I think calling turn and folding river is a viable option. A lot of villains, especially at lower stakes, won't follow through on a bluff when they're extremely deep. They might fire one barrel to try to get hero off on the turn but shut down. It's possible he has a hand like AAxx or KKxx that will check back river. It's possible he'll do something like bet 1/3 pot with 2xxx. It's possible he'll do something like bet 1/3 pot with 88xx to, sure.
We're not trying to "put him on a bluff", or put him on any one type of hand. We want to make smart estimations of his frequencies with the various types of hands he can have. If we think he's likely to be bluffing and value betting a lot worse on the turn with a high frequency but bluffing and value betting worse on the river with a low frequency then we can call turn / fold river.
In the spirit of the earlier part of your post, I could say that you are wrong on so many levels I don't know where to begin, and that's that! There, makes for short and rather uninteresting posts, doesn't it?
In the more friendly spirit contained in the latter part of your post:
What you strongly disagree with is not necessary misinformation. I hope that is clear. You still haven't justified that it is, but I digress. So on to the hand.
But but but....but we have no reads except for what's happened in this hand, and some very basic stats, meaning we are basically readless, and that is according to the OP. So how do we make
'smart estimations of his frequencies with the various types of hands he can have. If we think he's likely to be bluffing and value betting a lot worse on the turn with a high frequency but bluffing and value betting worse on the river with a low frequency then we can call turn / fold river'? On what basis do we make those guesstimates?
Poker, apart from anything else, is mainly a game of information once we get past the basics, so in the absence of information, do we not revert to standard play? The standard play here is not to get involved with these sort of stacks whilst conceding position with a hand which if flopped well, but not perfect, is easily dominated once there is strong action. Hence the 'fold pre' comment that the OP wont even consider discussing.
Having made the mistake of getting in the pot in the first place, we must try to make the best of a bad job. Flop is good for us, but can we be happy if we get strong action? I like the donk bet, its asking questions on a dry board. However, the weak structure of our hand now manifests itself. The fact that we flopped as well as can be expected without miracles happening, yet still do not feel strong enough to repop a min raise on a dry board after donking out says it all. Or are you suggesting the flat call on flop was a trap, to keep the opponent's betting range wide, and we can comfortably call any turn except 7, 8 or 9?
Check call a pot bet of 118BBs on turn with the intention of folding the river if bet strongly into? All without the absence of any reads? That is good poker? Ok, if you say so. Me, I am a donkey. If I have no reads, I take the basic advice offered to me when I first started the game all those years ago: Believe in what they are representing, and big hands for big pots. Both would lead me to check-fold the turn and pick a better spot. Now that may be that wrong on so many levels for poker masters, but not for mere mortals.
In summary, what you are defending is we ought to be calling off a large part of our very deep stack with a marginal hand in the dark. Interesting, to say the least, especially coming from a self-professed successful good player.
Lastly, once the OP had called the turn bet on that board, when combined with the flop action, surely he is representing at least a full-house. Can you please enlighten me why the OP feel that is the wrong approach to poker hands?
Thank you.