Should I just fold river to the ~1/3 pot donk?
Are they ever bluffing/merging enough worse hands here after calling the turn raise?
Our TT blocks T9, but we also hold both FDs which seems bad. He could also have 95 but he seemed like a reg and opened UTG.
His turn call seems bad though with low spades and no heart, right?

I would call river due to tens blockers. His turn call is bad.

fold, no one bluffs in PLO5

How often does our turn potting range river the nuts? We need to defend a lot of non nut hands.

That’s not how it works. Forget about min def frequencies in the classical sense.

Sigh calling with TT, his turn call is like horrible.

Not a PLo5 boss, crimson can you elaborate.

Yeah I’m not folding QQTT. But we should have a fairly large folding range in these spots. Now with two missed fd’s we get to call a lot more. But minimal defense frequencies don’t apply in the way they do in the classic sense.

Let’s illustrate with a more obvious example, same board but rainbow texture.

Q76r check check, Kr turn, villain probes, we repot, villain calls, river 8. Villain puts in his remaining stack.

Ranges become very defined. IP we are heavily weighted towards KK,KQ, basically have no hands without a K in it.

OOP has a large chunk of draws that connect with the 8 and so he mostly has straights now, some KQ/weaker sets that have no incentive to bluff. He simply has very few bluffs. That’s why when you do level yourself into a call here in game you’re never good. You ready are almost never good here.

The min defense equilibriums still exist but you need to factor in the showdown ev of holdings and their blockers, this complicates the math to a point it’s not a useful way of breaking down such spots.

At low/midstakes opponents will fullpot their completed draws and you can comfortably fold everything that’s not T9. At tougher games regs will be getting this better and sizing down a lot. Like in this hand, 1/3rd still forces you to call some blocker hands.

Great reply thanks heaps.

River is an easy call - getting too good of a price.