QJ567 (no hearts)

first flop: 234hhx
second flop: K56rb

6 handed, 20 each.

pot (120) x,x,x, Hero x, bet 110 (all in), repot 450 (all in), folds to Hero.

covering both players here

any read whatsoever on 450 guy? Any backdoor flush chance on board two?

You need 40% here. I think it's pretty close. 6 handed with an all in that 450 guy could be trying to iso, I think I'm going with it.

ah forgot to put this in, no BDFD on both boards. 110 guy is loose fish, always getting it in with dominated draws. 450 guy is loose pre but plays very normal post.

Call. Yes him having KKhh is a bit iffy, but he should have plenty of other stuff as well, even AK5 which you are freerolling.

Good ole BP fever .. For how I play regular hands I'm such a Nit when it comes to this dynamic.

I don't know the equities here, but I like to look at the $$.

You're looking at putting in $450 to ..

1) win 1130 in a scoop .. 4 outer?
2) win 115 in a chop of main and side
3) win 60 in a quarter .. Very unlikely with only 4 combos of 56 and holding a 7 for a re-nut draw
4) lose 110 .. chop side, lose main
5) lose 450 .. get scooped

I'm not sure where the 40% came from or what it's referring to .. 1 to 5. Having equity may not equate to a lot of EV after you speculate the various options.

A) The likelihood of getting scooped is higher than scooping IMO. So are we scooping 2 of every 7 to break even?
B) Hero holds the current nuts on top and can improve, but is vulnerable close to 30% of the time or slightly more v sets and flush draws
C) Possible lead, but very vulnerable on bottom

Lots of stuff cancels itself out here over time. So I guess it comes down to 2 and 4, the most likely scenarios and how you want to handle them. IMO if you're facing a basically EV=0 spot, then you fold out. Obv this sounds nuts .. folding the current nuts!

There's very limited scenarios where you 3/4 them.

To me, there's so little in the main .. do I really want to pony up 450? Am I getting a chop at an 80% clip?

However I think this one leans towards call due to the blockers on the bottom. If we do lose top to a flush in the side, then our 2 pair should hold 'a lot'. Yes, there will be coolers, but I'm not so sure they will happen more than 20% of the time.

I like BP, it's hard to pass up the current nuts, but I am willing to let some of these high-risk low-reward spots go just because my chips can be used better in a normal hand. GL

I would fold. We are hanging on on top and rarely gonna win the bottom. We also might be hanging on for a quarter. There aren’t many good realistic outcomes.

If we had reads on the deeper stack being a whale or maniac I might go with it.

Just to put it out there .. you lose 25% of any chips you put in the pot when you end up chopping a Board two ways.

So when you get to a decision point you should consider how large the pot is before you add any more chips and determine if those chips will make up for the loss. GL

thanks guys, did end up folding as i felt i didn’t have enough EQ against the 2 ranges. BTN showed up with A5 with NFD for first board and K5 for second board, other player mucked.

Nit

BTN was the 450 shove? What did the short stack show?

So you had to fade hearts on top and only had 2 outs on the bottom (outside of 2x run-run straight.

Is a flush going to hit 2 out of 7 tries? 28.7% just to break even on the chops when we hold the top Board and lose the bottom. Hero going to get scooped way more often than winning the scoop via 2 outer on Bottom.

I'm thinking that there isn't enough chips in the main to warrant putting $450 out there in the side. Even if V has Kxxx we will lose the bottom quite often via counterfeit pairs. GL