Just yesterday I began exploring the interesting game of PLO. I came across this hand and was wondering if my post-hand analysis makes sense.
In hindsight, I realize the flop call is probably not that great, being OOP and against a pot size open. OTF I'm sure there is a case to be made for donking and not risk having the flop checked through, but my default is to XC. I think XR'ing flop would chase out most of the hands we would want to keep in, like overpairs and medium/weakish FD's, that hopefully binks the turn with a diamond, while I hit the boat. Or they keep valuebetting/bluffing with worse.
The flop is checked through. Clearly there is no option but to lead the turn, which also brings me an OESD. The shorty ships it, and he probably almost always has a draw or an unlikely overpair that didn't bet flop. MP cold calls though, which is interesting. I think he would likely bet the flop with any 8/44 and most diamonds, so the 6c must have hit him, which leaves his range to be largely waited towards 66**, 75** and club combodraws like 5c3c**. Tc7c**. Against that range I think calling is best, and hopefully spike one of the clean ten outs and possibly one of six straight outs - discarding two dirty clubs.
I hit the straight on the river and this is where I don't know what is the better option. Since there is no sidepot, villain gain nothing by bluffing, leaving his river betting range to be for pure value. With only a half pot size bet left, is there any way I can XF this river? To be able to call the bet, I think he MUST be valuebetting river with 75** (and sometimes we chop against 9c7c**). I don't have enough PLO experience to know if an average PLO2 opponent would valuebet it.
Any thoughts on any part of the hand is appreciated.