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Old 06-18-2021, 02:50 PM   #1
dingdongdonkey
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PLO2: Rate my bluff (lol)

Villain is 21/16 over 200 hands in my current database. My guess is we've played >1,000 hands in the last 4 weeks or so and his stats have been similar over the bigger sample. I don't think he will ever just flat a set on the flop and him having a 6 seems super unlikely as well, but my flop sizing didn't exactly prevent him from making a loose call.

PokerStars, Omaha Pot Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players
Replay this hand on Upswing Poker

UTG: $1.74 (87 bb)
MP: $1.77 (89 bb)
CO: $2.17 (109 bb)
BU: $10.07 (504 bb)
SB (Hero): $2.17 (109 bb)
BB: $1.58 (79 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is SB with 9 T J 9
1 fold, MP calls $0.02, CO raises to $0.08, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets to $0.28, 2 players fold, CO calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.60) 6 K T (2 players)
Hero bets $0.19, CO calls $0.19

Turn: ($0.98) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $0.31, Hero raises to $1.70 (all-in), CO calls $1.39 (all-in)

Last edited by dingdongdonkey; 06-18-2021 at 03:07 PM.
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Old 06-18-2021, 03:27 PM   #2
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Re: PLO2: Rate my bluff (lol)

Don't 3bet pre. without ds.
Don't bet 1/3 pot on flop on this texture.

The big problem on turn isn't sets or a six, it's QJT:cc, AcQT:cc, KQ:cc, hands that assume you are never bluffing and probably have AA/AK but they have to call anyway.
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Old 06-18-2021, 03:35 PM   #3
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Re: PLO2: Rate my bluff (lol)

Also, given SPR, I doubt I ever x/r turn instead of just potting it. Certainly 2/3 pot flop and AI turn would seem more normal, esp. at this level.
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Old 06-18-2021, 04:20 PM   #4
TomCollins
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Re: PLO2: Rate my bluff (lol)

Quote:
Originally Posted by dingdongdonkey View Post
Villain is 21/16 over 200 hands in my current database. My guess is we've played >1,000 hands in the last 4 weeks or so and his stats have been similar over the bigger sample. I don't think he will ever just flat a set on the flop and him having a 6 seems super unlikely as well, but my flop sizing didn't exactly prevent him from making a loose call.

PokerStars, Omaha Pot Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players
Replay this hand on Upswing Poker

UTG: $1.74 (87 bb)
MP: $1.77 (89 bb)
CO: $2.17 (109 bb)
BU: $10.07 (504 bb)
SB (Hero): $2.17 (109 bb)
BB: $1.58 (79 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is SB with 9 T J 9
1 fold, MP calls $0.02, CO raises to $0.08, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets to $0.28, 2 players fold, CO calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.60) 6 K T (2 players)
Hero bets $0.19, CO calls $0.19

Turn: ($0.98) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $0.31, Hero raises to $1.70 (all-in), CO calls $1.39 (all-in)

What hands will he fold that you can beat? It's not very plausible you have a 6 here. So he's calling with AA, pretty much any king. Probably forced to call with hands like AQQJ or even AcXc.
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Old 06-18-2021, 04:49 PM   #5
dingdongdonkey
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Re: PLO2: Rate my bluff (lol)

He never has AA. A 21/16 doesn't get tricky if he can just 4-bet before the flop and auto stack off on any flop.

As for me hardly ever having a 6 here, yes, but neither should he.

Not sure why he would have to call it off with any king. My actual cards in this specific hand are probably the worst hand I will ever have in this spot. Even AQQJ might be drawing dead at this point.
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Old 06-18-2021, 06:23 PM   #6
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Re: PLO2: Rate my bluff (lol)

Quote:
Originally Posted by dingdongdonkey View Post
My actual cards in this specific hand are probably the worst hand I will ever have in this spot. Even AQQJ might be drawing dead at this point.
Think about what you are saying:

He should be folding AQQJ on KT66:, presumably because you've almost always got AA or KK.

But in reality:

You have JT99ss, with 1 9.


Ignoring pre flop, you don't have you don't have an A or a K (to block "the range you almost always have") ... you don't even have JJ or QQ to double block the straight draw.


Which leads to two obvious questions: If you saw some other player take this line with this hand...

1. Which hands that aren't AA/KK do you think they are folding?

2. Would you fold AQQJ against them?
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Old 06-18-2021, 11:01 PM   #7
dingdongdonkey
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Re: PLO2: Rate my bluff (lol)

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Originally Posted by illiterat View Post
Think about what you are saying:

He should be folding AQQJ on KT66:, presumably because you've almost always got AA or KK.

But in reality:

You have JT99ss, with 1 9.
"I know what you have in reality, so how can you argue villain should fold?". Genius.

My own stats are very similar to villain's stats, by the way. Good luck making money by making this call over and over against me.

As to your questions,

1. I figured villain would have to fold the specific hand type he called with, but he snapped, so what do I know. I guess my bluff is really bad because villain does have many sigh-calls with combo draws. I would much rather call with T987cc than with the hand type villain called with.
2. I might sigh-call every now and then, but I wouldn't expect to be ahead. To be fair, a SB with my stats at PLO2 probably wouldn't go for the turn c/r if he actually held a full house. It's just bet, bet, bet.

Last edited by dingdongdonkey; 06-18-2021 at 11:30 PM.
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Old 06-19-2021, 11:47 PM   #8
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Re: PLO2: Rate my bluff (lol)

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Originally Posted by dingdongdonkey View Post
"I know what you have in reality, so how can you argue villain should fold?". Genius.
Read the rest of what I wrote.

It's not "You had a bluff, lol he should call" it's "you have much better hands to bluff with, so the fact you are bluffing with this one implies you are way overbluffing ... thus. you shouldn't lie to yourself that he shouldn't call".

Quote:
Originally Posted by dingdongdonkey View Post
My own stats are very similar to villain's stats, by the way. Good luck making money by making this call over and over against me.
I'll probably never play against you. I don't play in public online games atm and I don't care enough about $2 PLO.

I have however lost lots of pots and had many bad thoughts about villains who called "bad" vs. my bluffs, only to think about my range more and realize I needed to fix something.

gg.
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Old 06-23-2021, 10:46 AM   #9
Caterina
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Re: PLO2: Rate my bluff (lol)

Quote:
Originally Posted by dingdongdonkey View Post
PLO2: Rate my bluff (lol)
Preflop: 2/10, Flop 0/10, Turn 4/10

Quote:
Villain is 21/16 over 200 hands in my current database. My guess is we've played >1,000 hands in the last 4 weeks or so and his stats have been similar over the bigger sample. I don't think he will ever just flat a set on the flop and him having a 6 seems super unlikely as well, but my flop sizing didn't exactly prevent him from making a loose call.
People have answered about reasonable ranges, both for your bluffs aswell as Villain's calls. Details are always up to discussion, but there is not much to add.
Let me ask you something different instead: Is there a regwar going on between you and this guy? From all possible holdings, many of which have better equity, better blockers or are better disguised, when hitting big, why do you choose this one for 3betting?

*Would you bet AA, KK, QQ, TT, 66, KT, K6, T6, (7)89, Q9, AQ, etc on the flop for this small sizing? Is the population doing it? Then why do you assume that V. reads you for AA or KK mostly? Which hands do you even 3bet with a 6, K6, T6, etc in them?
*Which hands are you betting tiny on the flop and then x/r OTT in 3bet pot? What valuehand are you trying to represent? Only a 6? Then why choose this exact combo for it?

Last edited by Caterina; 06-23-2021 at 10:52 AM.
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Old 06-24-2021, 10:00 AM   #10
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Re: PLO2: Rate my bluff (lol)

fold pre
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Old 06-24-2021, 03:55 PM   #11
TomCollins
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Re: PLO2: Rate my bluff (lol)

Quote:
Originally Posted by dingdongdonkey View Post
He never has AA. A 21/16 doesn't get tricky if he can just 4-bet before the flop and auto stack off on any flop.

As for me hardly ever having a 6 here, yes, but neither should he.

Not sure why he would have to call it off with any king. My actual cards in this specific hand are probably the worst hand I will ever have in this spot. Even AQQJ might be drawing dead at this point.
Board pairing makes it easier to call with a king as now you don't have to worry about a bullshit 2 pair beating you.


Turn check-raise bluffs just are really hard to pull off, because there's a lot of money in there and it's hard to be drawing dead. You aren't doing this with KK. You really are doing this with something like a 6 and that's about it. Probably not that many. So when you do this, he's got a nut flush draw or a straight draw, he's drawing quite live most of the time and if he's drawing dead, le sigh. He just needs 25% equity, and either he was on complete air betting when you checked, or actually had it. Gonna lol when he has KK and you are the one drawing dead tho.
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