Quote:
Originally Posted by DickeLatte
but you do realize that there's also an EV of compound actions, i.e raise/fold, and that the expectation of that ain't 0?
if you decide to r/f, you have to make up for 0.14 * 350bb/100 = 49bb/100 those times you don't get 3bet to make r/f better than folding pre the first time round (thanks for pointing my silly mistake out, illiterat).
once again, of course the EV of folding in a vacuum will be 0 till the end of time, but we're interested in the EV of our whole line. and I'm still confident that calling the 3bet does better than folding to it those 14% of the time we indeed get 3bet.
different example: are you guys arguing that once you get 4bet pre vs likely AAxx, that you fold because the EV of folding in a vacuum is 0 and the EV of calling is slightly negative? highly doubt it. would guess you realize that calling is the best option as long as it doesn't lose as much as folding to the 4bet when looking at the hand as a whole.
Hard to follow this overthinking, but if folding is 0ev, then calling or raising ev is relatively worse or better than 0, always. The reason you attach 0 to folding is for simplicity sake, and then you evaluate your other decisions relative to 0. As I said before based on raw equity alone calling is > 0. This is trivial. We have 42% vs. his range and need 33% to call. Like all complicated decisions, evaluating ev comes down here subjective opinion somewhat. I gave some reasons why, but all people were saying on the opposite corner was "pffffft you can't fold you have 42% hurdur" when really raw preflop equity is pretty much the only reason I can see to ever call. Much prefer folding and making a tiny mistake preflop than making a big one postflop or breaking even and getting raked.
As far as compound decisions having their own ev well lol ranges change as our opponents decisions change, our decisions change as our opponents decisions change, and thus ev does as well. Stealing itself might be profitable. Folding after being 3bet still has an ev of zero, and calling and 4betting of course would be evaluated relative to 0----some parts of our range it's +ev to call vs. the 3bet range, some parts it's +ev to 4bet (relative to 0) and some parts are -ve blah blah blah
Any cent you put in the middle is gone, it's a sunken cost. You do not calculate it into your ev of previous or future actions. Raise/folding is never one decision. It is two separate decisions and has two separate evs based on opponents range, tendencies blah blah
Last edited by DoOrDoNot; 08-25-2017 at 09:05 AM.