to clearify: I want to bet with 1:1 (even money) against Barcelona winning the champions league.

I wonder who opens more tables to never sit in whoever joins but the worst fish, deldar or st1ckman?

I believe aba was also mentioning there is no such thing as variance in poker if you play your A game all the time yet he got crushed very bad. Maybe it is true as long as your edge is SO HUGE that variance doesn't bother you.

However, stinger said he lost like 50 buyins at 25/50 where he felt like he would be a 15 ptbb/100 favorite.

I think big difference between deldar and st1ck when they do that is deldar plays any lineup 3 handed+ and st1ck never plays/seat jumps

everybody quits if the fish leaves nowadays, I always end up getting grimed or playing gavz hu...

If i had to guess 400k, 400 on ftp maybe
Sigh. I never really understood maths so I'm not gonna read this or bother to make a cohesive mathematical response, but what I will say is this. Sure, you can get a bit lucky or a bit unrucky in poker, I'm not saying you can't. But in the end the guy who plays his hand right will win more money than the guy who plays his hand wrong. Always. This is evident in the games through and through, and you will also notice that most of the HS guys don't spend most of their time bitching about how bad they run, unless they're semifish. U play good, u win, u play bad, u lose.

^My ideology is simple, if you play all your hands optimally, you will basically never lose. I believe strongly in this and I don't need mathematical reaffirmation to prove it to me, I just focus on playing the game, and the money is secondary. I don't really care what anyone else thinks. It always disturbed me to watch people play and play and play and never move up or have any success in poker and then start whining about how many buyins under they are or whatever the ****, when they could simply learn how to win. I guess this is what makes PLO and poker in general such a great, profitable game though.

The "variance" is not a real thing, it's just something to satisfy the inadequacies of those who don't have what it takes to succeed. This is why you get a bunch of guys who play a bajillion hands and are stuck at the same limit for the rest of their careers while they watch the game evolve around them, and eventually fall by the wayside and wonder wtf happened. None of those players will be playing in a couple of years, or they will be playing much smaller limits, and barely making significant enough money to even justify their playing poker.

As for Insyder, who always had a bit of a hardon for me (I would too if I were some useless breakeven German), I will play any regs 3 handed+ at whatever limit I am comfortable at money wise, if there are no other games and I'm feeling good (Usually at the very start of my session). This isn't that often, because there's a lot of games, and I don't play that many tables, and I'm not always feeling good. I also play tonnes of other mediocre regs who I think suck, but I try to only do this when I am fresh. Fwiw, I only think about 5 regs are significantly better than me. I also never sit out when the fish sits out, and try to help get games going. At low limits like I will play regs HU if theres no other action, but I have almost 0 experience, and there is rarely no action. Unlike you, I actually like to win money.

Oh, I was also asked to include my views on mr Ahmed. I think he plays quite well. true story

/Educatin da fish

deldar182, u dont believe in variance?... ok that's fine so you don't BELIEVE in math either ....

genius

Wow amazing deldar, I'm not sure if you are just levelling everyone right now. One tip, the last 200/400$ sesh we played I had you at +260k while your ev was somewhere around 0 when I quit. Please run your hands through an ev calculator
(and yes not saying I haven't run good at times myself, but atleast I'm aware of it)

It won't last

I like you, do you like me?

I have seen so many people make similar claims and usually attacking other people for not being good enough to understand. Then, they have a month of run bad. Then, the next month is worse than the last. Then, they come crying to everyone in the forums about how they finally understand.

Deldar plays very good imo, but he is being very delusional about this.

start running sims

meh, I think deldar is just saying that the best players are eventually gonna come out on top. He is basically stating the obvious. He is very good and has been successful for awhile now. The same can be said for many other great players. Im sure he understands the inherant variance involved in poker over short(ish) time frames, but is more pointing out that it is annoying to see people attribute every big win or big loss to some form of "rungood/runbad."

pretty sure he is saying that if you aren't winning, you should just be better at poker that way you will win. obv he has a point about a lot of grinders whining about running bad who in fact are just mehh, but he also has a massive confirmation bias.

so just remember every time you have a winning session its obv because you played better

Nah, its because ppl thinking on the lowest of levels can run good for 400k hands.

WOW. Please tell me PLO high stakes reg. player didn't just write he never really understood maths. How come you make prof... I mean...


Absolutely right. But concluding there is no such thing as variance from these facts is just, again, extremely naive.


Played 2 million hands in poker, claims money is secondary. I honestly like you.


The fact that variance or "running bad" is no.1 excuse for playing ****ty doesn't make it unexistable.

Is it dementia or did I read just moments ago that money for you is secondary?

And don't think this is some sort of attack on you, I am just trying to understand your way of thinking.

this is either the troll post of the century to get action or you are way dumber then i thought u are lol. And this is not coming from some break even player if you wonder. if its not a troll post get a clue in statistics before you embarass yourself even further.

Deldar do you believe in gravity?

if you play it out optimally you can defy it.

Lol +1.

Deldar really?

lol deldar vs the world

lol

Deldar's way of thinking is exactly how I think when I'm running good.

Deldar, I actually agree with you wholeheartedly if we add a hypothesis that we play the same stakes all the time. However, take a look at the stakes distribution for most HS players these days - it's pretty much a pyramid with a wide base (as low as 5/10 for many, some even lower) and a tiny 200/400 top. Variance, and how you run in the scarce biggest games, becomes such a massive factor that making any "play good=win" claims is ridiculous, because it'll be near impossible to get a significant sample at the bigger games, and your results in the biggest games will dwarf everything else.

Deldar kind of has a point here. I mean i am one of those 50 tabling bots hes talking about and maybe I've run good throughout my poker career but I honestly never understood why anyone complains about variance. Sure, some people run better than others but ultimately the best players come out on top.

Deldar is a ****in beast bro. He doesn't understand the maths lmao. I believe him, plenty of math players that suck. Math is for bots. You need to use feel and some basic math.

definitely
Actually, I think I play very bad. I just think everyone else sucks worse. I have "run bad" before (do you really think I haven't had a downswing before?). In fact, I have probably had ~4 -500k days. I have seen my lifetime graph once (a year ago), and if I remember I ran 5 or 600k ev under in like 3000 hands. f u gus (200 400). Back then my life graph had me ~over 100k ev or smth fwiw, but you can't really find my true answer bc of the flips i think? or are they even? i dont know... or care... the point is...

When I lose I don't walk around complaining about how unlucky i am or why god has tried to **** me in the ass. I spend my time agonizing over the bundles of tiny and large errors I make during play and what I can do to fix them so they never happen again. I spend time trying to optimize my sessions, figure out my leaks, and to never tilt. When I win I do the same. After my recent session at 200 400 where i won some money I don't do a little f ag celebration, I spend hours wondering why I played so badly, while I play some 10 20 after to prove to myself that I can still play good and with no mistakes

I have no time to look at my little f4ggot line and decide whether I am a victim or champion of "variance". Anyone who wastes their time doing this is making less profit than possible, and goal of poker is maximum profit. luck is a red herring

Like I said, I'm not very good at poka, but if I was I shouldve win at least double what i have. o well

Anyway, this isn't really important to me, it's just lol to watch so many people live out their self-fulfilling prophecies blindly

Actly most ppl play much worse when winning
fyp
nono ur a bit confused. making more money than insyder is primary. making money in general is secondary.
wp
Seems many of you have the misconception that I think this way because of my current heater. Not so. This has always been my attitude towards poker and anyone who knows me will tell you as much. You really think this one heater changed my mind over zillions of hands of HS poker?
smart guy