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nutstr8 on backdoor flush board, value vs fish? nutstr8 on backdoor flush board, value vs fish?

05-05-2016 , 11:35 AM
villain 39/15/3b 4 over 55 hands

    Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 5 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    SB: $18.98 (75.9 bb)
    BB: $23.85 (95.4 bb)
    MP: $49.76 (199 bb)
    CO: $25 (100 bb)
    Hero (BTN): $31.94 (127.8 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BTN with J T 9 8
    2 folds, Hero raises to $0.62, SB folds, BB raises to $1.96, Hero calls $1.34

    Flop: ($4.02) 7 Q K (2 players)
    BB bets $2.75, Hero calls $2.75

    Turn: ($9.52) J (2 players)
    BB checks, Hero bets $9.12, BB calls $9.12

    River: ($27.76) A (2 players)
    BB checks ($10.02), Hero ?


    Is there enough value by 2p, set to stick the rest in or are we running into better too often then? I thought, he'd lead most of his flushes OTR given there's so little behind. I also think my turn sizing doesn't allow him to float weak club draws all too wide...
    nutstr8 on backdoor flush board, value vs fish? Quote
    05-05-2016 , 06:10 PM
    I would shove given stacks, he would shove any flush into you
    nutstr8 on backdoor flush board, value vs fish? Quote
    05-05-2016 , 08:59 PM
    I really don't like your turn bet. This board is already really good for villain's range (given his stats and that he 3b pre) not to mention you're betting this turn in a spot where you often have very little fold equity which is something you need to make turn bets when checked to like this. I.e. you want to win the pot now with a bet because your hand honestly plays terribly on most rivers, but you have little or no fold equity given board texture.

    River is as mentioned above ^
    nutstr8 on backdoor flush board, value vs fish? Quote
    05-05-2016 , 11:01 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SolarAU
    I really don't like your turn bet. This board is already really good for villain's range (given his stats and that he 3b pre) not to mention you're betting this turn in a spot where you often have very little fold equity which is something you need to make turn bets when checked to like this. I.e. you want to win the pot now with a bet because your hand honestly plays terribly on most rivers, but you have little or no fold equity given board texture.
    This is all just flat wrong. Your hand is ahead of his range. You are in position. He will call often. SPR on the river will be like .35. You're lighting money on fire if you don't bet this turn big.
    nutstr8 on backdoor flush board, value vs fish? Quote
    05-05-2016 , 11:06 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Adebisi
    This is all just flat wrong. Your hand is ahead of his range. You are in position. He will call often. SPR on the river will be like .35. You're lighting money on fire if you don't bet this turn big.
    +1

    SolarAU: I did not even read your full argument, not betting turn is dumb.
    nutstr8 on backdoor flush board, value vs fish? Quote
    05-07-2016 , 07:31 AM
    Redact: I misread the HH and didn't realise that we actually had a value hand (straight) here. My advice here was 100% under the assumption we were barreling turn as a bluff (which would be a mistake imo). Mistakes were made under the influence.
    nutstr8 on backdoor flush board, value vs fish? Quote

          
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