Hi all,

This is kinda a weird hand but what's new in live plo, right? 1/2 5-card. Hero opens the majestic J9685ds in MP and a couple callers, CO pro did not see us raise and 3! to $25, we go seven ways:

($175): 47Kr with two of our back door flush draws, so we have nut wrap and backdoor to even bigger wrap. Checks to 3!ttor who pots it. He is going to have sets and two pair here 100% of the time. Short stack loose action player jams for what appears to be about a min raise, so action is likely open. On hero now. We are $1,000 eff. with the 3!ttor and have everyone else covered.

We probably have 43% or so against the best made hands for the side pot so not exactly the right odds to get it in, maybe more if V has his own outs like KK7/4, and an unknown amount of equity for the main pot, depending on what the short stack jammed with (sets or 2p/wraps).

Thanks,
DT

My stack goes in here without a second thought. But hey, I like to gamble.


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if it's not a legal raise, you could flat here and see if the board pairs on the turn, but it's kinda marginal either way. don't think i'm good enough to fold here, but it's hard to envision a scenario where a lot of your outs aren't shared / blocked. if CO has anything besides KK then he likely has connecting cards that block your wrap, and short stack is probably in your neighborhood one way or another. there's probably a strong case for just folding but i am probably jamming and hoping that CO hero folds something like A9877 lol

I think you have to gii here. The short stack shouldn't be on a draw with raising instead of flatting, so if CO has a set or 2 pair, short stack should be blocking enough to go ahead and jam.

We have over 48% against top set. Never folding

48%? Where'd you come up with that? I put it into ppt and it's closer to 43.

My bad, you're right. If V is as transparent as you claim then maybe we just call and fold board pairing turns?

Can you give more info on how CO didn't realise you had raised but made it $25? Not that it matters but its a weird spot he didn't see given all the callers.

Regardless, you have too much equity to fold. I like the previous suggestion in this thread to call and hope to play for non-pairing turns. Having the option to fold a board pair generates additional EV.

The interesting thing about this hand is that the short stack all in actually gives you more equity than if it were HU. His range drains the main villain's equity disproportionately due to the card removal.

Is that because you put short stack on made hands?

Not exclusively but made hands make up SOME of his range

The short stack should be calling in hopes of as many people coming along as possible if he is on a big draw too. In theory he should not want you or anyone else out of the pot if he has a draw. Only a made hand, other than maybe KK, should be raising in his position so this is why I would think he takes equity from the CO. and increases your EV to gii. I agree, if the CO can't raise though, then calling > jamming.

Not sure we can fold without a great read our outs are blocked. But mostly calling so we have option to fold turn.

i think this is all correct if SS is a good player, but he's probably not, and i see bad players jamming draws in this type of spot all the time.