villain in this hand is a very experienced amateur reg / finance day job guy who seems pretty competent. the game is 5 or 6 handed with a button straddle and he has been the closest thing to a tight / aggressive player in this game aside from me. unlike many in the game, he tends to raise first in rather than limp and has been pretty active but playing a reasonable range. he also seems pretty competent postflop and has demonstrated understanding of SPR and card removal / range issues. not at all scared money, have not seen him make any crazy bluffs but he seems to be playing a pretty balanced strategy so i assume he is capable. that said, this is a loose and gambly game that has gone from a 10 to 25 button straddle to 50 or 100 on most hands and we are past sunrise at this point. this is my first time playing against him but others in the game know him pretty well. i think he is stuck around 5k at this point and seems to be running a little bad, but don't see him tilting.

hero is the only player left at the table who is currently up for the session and has a strong winning image, probably viewed as a bit tight for this table / tends to have it when betting. villain and i have not tangled much so far but he has seen me attempt NF blocker play and get caught within the last couple hours.

anyway, hero is in the 100 button straddle, villain opens UTG+1 to 300, bad reg calls, hero calls button with AJ98 with the A8 of spades. villain has a bit over 7k and hero covers.

flop AQ7 with two spades and the ace of clubs, checks to hero who bets 500 into 900, villain calls pretty quickly, other player folds.

turn J of spades giving hero the nut flush, villain checks, hero bets 1000, villain again calls pretty quickly, does not appear to consider raising. i am targeting worse flushes / combo hands here but i suppose some sets are also possible? though would have expected to hear from many sets on the flop.

river is the J clubs. villain checks.

3900 in the pot and effective stacks around 5400.

please describe if / how much you are betting, what hands you are targeting when betting, what we think villain puts us on when we bet three streets here and your plan if raised.

Not 100% clear on stacks/positions/game structure but I would consider a 3b squeeze preflop if the conditions are right.

Flop and turn are pretty standard though turn you have many options with sizing.

River I will just be showing down. Because you think he is competent I cant imagine he will be willing to call a worse flush on a paired board. You have also mentioned a few key points which makes me think he is capable of check-raising as a bluff.

Would typically go for smaller sizings on the river, 1k for example.

Hero is targeting worse flushes, boats and some other bluff catchers villain has like straights/2p or trip j with a spade blocker.

If villain xr my initial thought is mostly call, just because villain took such a non-standard line with qq or aa, he might raise a worse boat or same boat for value, not to mention bluff.

It also doesn't make sense for villain to check most of his best value hands since Hero will happily take showdown with so many hands and shouldn't have many mandatory bluffs etc.


So seems like a spot Hero should be betting for value - I think the much harder decision is whether to call the x-jam because population will underbluff here, we block useful blockers for bluffs and villain can check some very strong flopped sets. But also trickier to evaluate when small sizing may induce and villain should also know Hero will not have many big boats.

Betting like $1900 on river trying to get paid by worse flushes and the odd broadway with blockers.

Our line looks quite full of **** imho, like drawy bet on flop, then we barrel spades, now we barrel again when board pairs.

Probably have to fold to river jam unless opponent is very good or very spew.

(Edit because I had misread hand in one paragraph.)

**** i misread the hand, thought u had nut flush only

I'm betting the river 1/3 pot. Can get value from worse boats (QJ,J7,77) and possible (but not likely) worse flushes.

If raised probably folding but will make a decision based on live reads. Agree with Monikrazy that the spot is underbluffed so would need a special reason to call the check-jam.

so this is the main wrinkle in this hand - feels very weak not to go for some value here, but also our line on the first two streets looks a lot like nut flush or the blocker, so betting river may induce some bluffs by a thinking player. i think this is even more the case if we bet small to target smaller boats / stubborn flushes with blockers.

anyway i bet 2500 and he jammed.

I know I said we probably need to fold to river jam….

I probably just end up calling with the odds we laid ourself with the $2500 but is this guy ever bluffing here more than 1 time in 6?

Like we just sigh call the extra $1400 into like $9k and this dude gonna show us his QQ/AA alot.

Sizing on paired boards it’s just a self level alot right, do we not bet the 2nd nut boat vs this dude who has heaps of strong hands and might pay us off large?

I agree with you that our hand looks like NF or NF blocker, and with river bet it seems way more likely we are just barreling bare ace.

But I do get into this leveling game with myself like I’m Galfond playing a table full of Galfonds when really I’m more like Squirtle playing a table full of Squirtles.

Maybe the straddles are skewing my perception of the game, is it actually a 5/5/10 game that’s gotten out of control?

Interesting hand.

I think you have to call. In his shoes, your line really looks like you're either full of it, or you had a monster flush + full house draw. Given that so many of the flush + full house hands would 3bet PF, I could see him turning a worse flush or even a straight into a bluff. If he chose to play AA or QQ this way, more power to him.

I'm not a fan of your bet sizing on the river. I think I'd prefer a smaller bet, like 1500-1800 to try and either induce a bluff or a crying call, or I'd rather just pot it because I know my line looks suspicious. But, I'm not particularly good or comfortable playing deep.

1200/default is to fold to river jam live without a good read that they're at least capable. If I've seen them do it before or see other evidence of capability I'll snap I think. Very happy to discount QQ from his range, if he's not willing to c/r it on the flip I don't see why he'll want to fold out all our bluffs and only keep in the hands that beat him now, he'll just call QQ the few times he has it. And so he has to have AA, slowplayed it on the flop, snapped without a second thought on the turn, and then have confidence that you'll bet frequently enough to bet the river again rather than his owm sneaky little donkbet to induce.

All that weighed against all the things you've said in your description of him that scream 'capable of river bluffraises, including in situations where you're telling a different story on each street, can be using the blocker play, and if he has AQ, for example, he can turn them into blockers too. I'm fact I think that might be his most frequent hand. Possibly with a smaller flush, por at least a K blocker.

I like the analysis Wazz.

Competent tag should be xr AA or QQ on flop. Literally no reason not to, esp as PFR. Put villain in your shoes; you've bet the flop, barreled the flush, then barreled river? This really only makes sense with hands like AAQ/7hh or AQQhh, which would have 3 bet pre, and the exact hand you have. Your river barrel looks so fos because there are so few hands that make sense, so it's a perfect bluffing place for a thinking player. Call.
Edit - he could be value betting a combo like AKQJ/AKJT with spades I guess.

BTW flop is an excellent opportunity to consider checking back. Much like it's nice to be able to turn up with unlikely hands in certain spots, you need to be checking back sometimes with tp+nfd in order to protect better your checks which you will be doing very frequently with a bunch of underpairs to the ace and gutshots and bad flush draws. Where you've got no other backup with your tp is where you want to select those hands from, as the ones doing better i.e. with a gs or more you'll want to bet every time. Underrepping your hand comes with other benefits, for example being able to call most turn bets and so realising your equity at the same time as maximising implied odds, as well as being able to bet 100% of turns when checked to.

All in I think online I check this ~75% and live maybe 25%.

I think betting larger on the turn is better? Being huip lets us check back and realize some middling holdings, naturally polarizing our bets. Setting up near pot-sized river bet should serve us well when it bricks off. Are there other reasons for choosing this sizing? Genuinely curious.

As played, betting even smaller on the paired river seems well advised. But given your bet, getting 4:1 on a call is tough to get away from. My guess is that AQQ, AQ:ss, and AKQT!ss can all take this line a significant portion of the time. At a reasonable opening frequency (eg 10%) he'll have way too many bluff candidates from just these hands (combos below). You would have to give him a significant number of AA to get his candidate bluffs in line with his value, like 1/3 of all combos. Seems unlikely. Not seeing how to assign a better relative frequency to these and other classes can be in play. So as has been mentioned, above, though the pool likely underbluffs here it's not hard to imagine this opponent could be overdoing it.

AQQ 216
AQ:ss 50
AKQT!ss 82
AA:ss 28
AA 805

the structure is a bit unusual, it's a mandatory button straddle with no blinds. button has the choice to straddle anywhere from 10 to 25 and action starts where the SB would usually be. as the night goes on, max straddle tends to grow.

I would have bet 1300 on river which is 1/3 pot so i can get more crying calls. Also gives him more rope to bluff river.

Now that ive thought about this hand more im calling because so few combos of AA, QQ might not even check raise and this guy is capable of bluffing.

I think if you call and lose its not one of those spots where u regret it later. Your gonna lose some bluff catching spots from time to time but you can also catch some donations too.

Can we get a spoiler?

sorry, was traveling and not on 2p2 for a while. result - i called and got shown a weirdly played AAQx, i think last card was an 8. no spades.

i felt like this player is capable enough given how weird my own line looks. i don't think he is even necessarily raising QQ for value here so it's sort of AA or nothing. in this case it was AA :/

Unlucky but I think the consensus says well played?

it at least seems to be "not terrible," so i'll take it. but i also think pretty much every street is at least debatable in one aspect or another.

i can see the case for sometimes checking flop. if betting, i think this sizing makes sense.

turn, i felt i was targeting middling hands that i have crushed, but in retrospect i think maybe i am supposed to continue full pot after betting flop and flush completes turn, as range-wise i am more likely to have nut spades after this flop action, and my bluffs will mostly be nut blockers that also want to bet big. so, maybe should have thought more about balance on turn rather than targeting specific hands.

river, i think betting smaller gets called wider but also induces more c/r bluffs, so we probably still need to call off at a good frequency. not sure if it's higher EV in the long run to bet smaller, but feel pretty confident checking is no bueno here.

Yeah awesome, super constructive thread TY.

IMO I think your PF, Flop and Turn lines are 'decent' as long as this was standard for you in most spots previously. I'm not a big pot-pot-pot guy in my games and while I KNOW I miss value in some hands I think we do pick up weaker calls in others that are scared off by the word 'pot'.

While reading the OP I already knew I'd be in the minority by just checking back the River and taking a Showdown. It's kind of a toss up for sure. Obv you've been playing long enough to see him lose at Showdown but don't mention how far behind he's been at those Showdowns. It's also possible that he's losing more because he isn't making it to Showdown.

I'm not suggesting that we're in lock down, but I guess when it's late in a session and I'm up I don't want to crack open any momentum doors that I don't need to.

Have you been caught bluffing or showing down weak 1 pair holdings on strong Boards? This Board has all three 5-card hands available. I'd say based on your image that you hit the flush .. why would a good V call with a straight when there's now a Boat available? I can see a 'high' flush calling but at what rate?

Sorry, I tend to have some mercy on V when they are running bad. I got three streets here and I'm going to take a Showdown .. even against an unknown .. when the Board may give a frustrated QJ-flushy holding a better hand now.

I think I'd have to call a lot of bets here, but I'm not going to offer up a value own bet after getting zero resistance the whole way. GL