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Not sure how to size this river bet Not sure how to size this river bet

02-04-2024 , 11:02 AM
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker HUD and Database Software

PL Omaha 0.1(BB)
BTN ($9.75) [VPIP: 46.7% | PFR: 13.3% | AGG: 17.6% | Flop Agg: 11.1% | Turn Agg: 25% | River Agg: 25% | 3Bet: 16.7% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 66.7% | Hands: 15]
SB ($8.83) [VPIP: 76.5% | PFR: 5.9% | AGG: 24.1% | Flop Agg: 35.7% | Turn Agg: 12.5% | River Agg: 20% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 100% | Hands: 17]
BB ($7.02) [VPIP: 42.9% | PFR: 14.3% | AGG: 11.1% | Flop Agg: 0% | Turn Agg: 50% | River Agg: 0% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 20% | Hands: 14]
UTG ($18.17) [VPIP: 59.1% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 36.4% | Hands: 22]
HJ ($6.70) [VPIP: 14.3% | PFR: 14.3% | AGG: 44.4% | Hands: 21]
HERO ($10.72) [VPIP: 27.5% | PFR: 18.6% | AGG: 31.4% | Flop Agg: 30.7% | Turn Agg: 38.5% | River Agg: 29.4% | 3Bet: 5.2% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 1001]

Dealt to Hero: K 7 7 K

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $0.35, BTN Calls $0.35, SB Calls $0.30, BB Calls $0.25

Hero SPR on Flop: [4.76 effective]
Flop ($1.40): 3 6 T
SB Checks, BB Checks, HERO Bets $0.67 (Rem. Stack: $9.70), BTN Calls $0.67 (Rem. Stack: $8.73), SB Folds, BB Folds

Turn ($2.74): 3 6 T 5
HERO Bets $0.78 (Rem. Stack: $8.92), BTN Calls $0.78 (Rem. Stack: $7.95)

River ($4.30): 3 6 T 5 A
HERO Bets $4.09 (Rem. Stack: $4.83), BTN Folds

Spoiler:

HERO wins: $4.09



I still feel like I do not have a good grasp for bet sizing, save for pre-flop (just pot), and this hand from a recent session was one of the more uncomfortable for me. On the river, I potted, hoping to make my hand look like a bluff, but obviously that didn't work. I was betting 1/2 pot on the flop and turn because I was concerned that someone had the ace high flush since we were four-way on the flop, but once the turn hit that wasn't an issue. Wondering what a better line would be here.
Not sure how to size this river bet Quote
02-04-2024 , 02:07 PM
it depends on the players, their ranges, how much of their ranges they'll call/fold with etc. for example although you didn't have much sample on those three players, the stake and none of their VPIP being lower than 40 suggests their ranges are very wide and might include a lot of low hearts and small pocket pairs that could have connected with the flop, while it is also likely that they are players who will call more often and at bigger sizes when they hit sets or flushes. your flop sizing is good, against players who consider equity/pot odds and play tighter ranges you could bet less because betting half pot will fold out more-or-less the same trash as betting 1/3 and the odds of them hitting a set on the next card are (without them having pair blockers and assuming you don't have any) just better than 5:1 from their perspective, so betting less all the time allows you to get more bluffs through more cheaply (as these are flops you want to bluff flop more often than others) and still charges sets a good amount to draw (which they will because of implied odds and the frequency of you bluffing). the rank of the flop cards also affects flop sizing as on a KhQh8h flop your opponents will be much more likely to have top or middle set.

on the turn you need to bet bigger than 30% pot, vs weaker players (who will call bigger sizes with a lot of hands) and also vs thinking players because you need to charge sets and (without them having pair-blockers and assuming you don't have any) they will fill up 1/4 of the time on the river, you are giving them 4.33 to 1 which means they can call with top set and be sure it wasn't a mistake. at least 50% pot is a good standard for CBetting the turn after a mono flop as that gives sets 3:1 or worse to fill up and gets a decent amount from flushes without scaring them away. you can bet more against players who struggle to make difficult lay-downs. for example, if you're up against someone who can't fold a flush and frequently makes spewey hero calls, or who won't fold a 10-out draw to a full house for any price, then just pot-pot once they've called the flop. against a player who takes pot odds into account you could just go 55% or something like that, making it a bit more costly for them to draw or call with a flush to account for the fact that you will be bluffing sometimes. against three weak players, or against three relative unknowns in a field of mostly weak players, it makes sense to bet bigger than that.

on the river just always bet pot unless you have a very good reason not to. your perceived range is always polarised (high flush or bluff) once you bet here so you need to maximise value. you will only have a good reason not to bet pot if you're against a weak player who doesn't know any of the above, and even against those players betting pot is the most profitable way to go without having good information that tells you a smaller bet will get paid off a lot more often.
Not sure how to size this river bet Quote
02-04-2024 , 02:14 PM
also it's bad practice for your bet sizing to reflect the strength of your hand. if you make a sizing because you are scared of an opponent having a better hand, then your sizing is conveying that to anyone who might be able to pay attention to it. thinking about decisions holistically in terms of ranges is difficult, but a good start is betting the same amount on a board regardless of what is in your hand and only letting your hand determine whether or not you bet. this is probably not optimal against players who won't pay that much attention, but it's good practice if you're learning.
Not sure how to size this river bet Quote
02-04-2024 , 07:41 PM
great set of replies, much appreciated!
Not sure how to size this river bet Quote
02-05-2024 , 08:59 AM
The nut flush card changing on the turn/river usually makes me adjust from my standard plan. It removes a bunch of nut hands and bluffs from my range and usually makes me unaware of where the nuts is. We happen to have the nuts here but that's a rarity. Our range will usually want to slow down, either sizing down or checking OOP. When IP, the effect is largely the same but we will bet the nuts when checked to, like half or so.
Not sure how to size this river bet Quote
02-05-2024 , 10:00 AM
Flop bet .. fine
Turn bet .. way too small, allowing for cheap price to draw to FH (and St Fl) for sets and even 2-3 pair combos. Notice that the Turn is a straight completing card also, so you can actually bet more 'to protect' against other sets.

River is just a bad card to blast IMO. Stick to the conservative betting and maybe you get a call/raise out of Q/J high flushes with the Ace coming out. I don't think you make as much in the long run from Players calling down this polar bet than you do going for 'thin' value with the the nuts. GL
Not sure how to size this river bet Quote
02-05-2024 , 03:29 PM
Thanks guys!
Not sure how to size this river bet Quote

      
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