Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
Middle set on a wet flop..jam or peel? Middle set on a wet flop..jam or peel?

03-01-2024 , 04:33 PM
Did I get too frisky with my check raise here? Should I be check calling on a flop board this wet?

UTG: $362.78 (181 bb)
BU: $482.50 (241 bb)
SB (Hero): $218.47 (109 bb)
BB: $200.00 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($3) Hero is SB with J♠ 4♣ J♣ 5♣
2 players fold, Hero raises to $4, BB 3-bets to $12, Hero calls $8

Flop: ($24) 4♥ J♦ Q♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $22.80, Hero raises to $91.20, BB raises to $188 (all-in), Hero calls $96.80

Turn: ($400) 2♠ (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($400) A♥ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $400 (Rake: $1.60)

Showdown:
BB shows K♥ 3♠ 6♠ T♥ (a flush, Ace high)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 48%, Flop: 45%, Turn: 38%, River: 100%)

SB (Hero) shows J♠ 4♣ J♣ 5♣ (three of a kind, Jacks)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 52%, Flop: 55%, Turn: 63%, River: 0%)

BB wins $398.40
Middle set on a wet flop..jam or peel? Quote
03-01-2024 , 10:45 PM
Looks good.
Middle set on a wet flop..jam or peel? Quote
03-04-2024 , 09:18 PM
I don’t think getting it in with middle set for 100bb is ever a mistake, but yea you can def peel to check jam turn and push out some weak draws and occasionally get called by a turned 2 pair.
Middle set on a wet flop..jam or peel? Quote
03-05-2024 , 12:14 PM
Would just x/pot it in - the board is so connected that your range can be relatively wide so there's plenty of value to be had, and if we just call we have no idea how to navigate certain turns.
Middle set on a wet flop..jam or peel? Quote
03-06-2024 , 11:20 AM
Welcome to the forums .. good first post! Welcome to PLO .. classic decision point for whatever your style of play is going to be!

You have to determine what type of PLO Player you're going to 'live with' in these spots. If you have plenty of bankroll (BR) AND can mentally deal with the swings that variance WILL cause in PLO then these 100-125 BB Flop spots will most likely always end up with you playing aggressively and watching the Turn and River come out .. possibly twice.

No right or wrong here. You can consider your opponent, your style and table dynamic and still be fine no matter what you do.

Are you shaving edges? You have a 4 (harder to boat by one out) and no hearts (not blocking flush) While these are only a 3-5% swing in equity they still may matter to you in the long run in these spots.

IMO this V got it in 'medium' against you .. Let's give V a 9 (not 3 or 6) and a BD flush draw. NOW you are less than 40% to win, maybe only 36%. Still a 'classic' PLO flip, but you are on the wrong side of it even though you are technically ahead.

Obv versus QQ you are crushed .. prob 5-7% to win, if not less.

In general PLO Players can't wait to GII on the Flop, but are much more less likely once the Turn comes out and equity is reduced. If this Board was slightly more disconnected then you can lean more towards aggression. But I am probably more willing to see a blank Turn here and have 'maximum' equity denial by Donking the Turn. You might still end up GII, but you are now a higher favorite (65% ?) than on the Flop.

You see that you are only 10% more likely to win on this Turn (opponent picked up a gutter) but to your opponent's eyes they lost 50% of their chances to win.

Unlike most PLO Players .. I'll take folds any time. It's my own form of variance control because I don't like to Run It Twice (RIT). So I set 'my pots' up via pot control and use my equity denial when it's actually 'more proper' to do so .. being on the Turn.

You can see here on the Flop that there's almost zero amount of chips that can be bet and BOTH Players are playing correctly via EV. But when you wait until a clean Turn then you are almost always MORE +EV than your opponent. GL
Middle set on a wet flop..jam or peel? Quote

      
m