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middle set vs LAG, weird runout middle set vs LAG, weird runout

01-02-2024 , 02:14 AM
hero has A996hhss. game is 5 handed, 25 button straddle, very late night. hero overlimps in CO after two callers and splashy host raises to 100 on button, reg calls, V1 calls, hero calls.

V1 is a tough LAG who just sat down. one very strong and specific read on him is that he always plays pretty wild his first orbit or two, trying to set up an image, tilt people and get paid off later.

have played with this V a fair bit and he probably views me as tight, competent but not super creative.

V1 starts with ~2k, hero has like 2500 and button covers.

flop (400) Kc9d4c

checks, hero bets 150, folds to V1 who calls.

turn (700) 6d
check, hero bets 600, V1 thinks for a while and calls

river (2000) 8s

V1 open jams for 1100 pretty quick.

on the one hand, two flush draws miss and most of the straights don't make a lot of sense. on the other, he should expect me to be pretty strong here and not be folding much at this price, so is it really a good time to rep an unlikely straight? bit of a leveling element
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01-02-2024 , 03:35 AM
geez that sucks. I know this is not very helpful but I go with my gut feel in this spot.

I don’t think it’s a snap either way.
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01-02-2024 , 01:08 PM
I raise this hand pre and the whole A:RR:$ds class. Even if you trim some, I'd keep this.

I could be talked into checking the flop without a club but if you know your players maybe betting is ok in this config. If I did bet, I doubt I would bet this small. It's just too dynamic with the flush and inside wrap present. I wouldn't quibble with half pot 4ways but would probably choose slightly bigger.

As played, we turn a wet looking brick. When he checks to us again, I'd overbet if allowed, so see no reason to go smaller than pot. This second "underbet" may make you look weaker than you are? You know your guy better than me, obv, but challenging you a little on what you think he thinks of you. His consideration strikes me as whether to semibluff more than whether to call.

As played, the only thing that's clear to me is that all the value and bluffs are all awkward fits for the action so far. his straights can't be too smooth, can't be both double suited and have an Ace. His bluffs have to have some straight card but hard to have 77 unless it's 877. can he jam 887 for some mergy valuebluff? even so, doesn't seem like there's enough there to call. But given the read maybe he's worth calling? On balance I think getting the price makes this a super reluctant call. Good post, as usual.
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01-02-2024 , 01:59 PM
I actually like pre in this kinda game, esp with a splashy button behind.

You want to see a flop with this hand, fine multi-way, but you don’t really love a bloated multi-way pot or facing a 3b.

On this flop big/check is more standard but again in this kinda game I actually like this line because it will make people peel with crappy Kx and get stringed along in the hand. I do agree turn should just be fullpot.
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01-02-2024 , 04:59 PM
Call. Its only half-pot, not a good time for a Hero fold.

Dislike the flop line and might play the turn differently.
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01-02-2024 , 08:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by monikrazy
Call. Its only half-pot, not a good time for a Hero fold.

Dislike the flop line and might play the turn differently.
Actually agree with the first part. You were gonna jam river when checked to anyways, you’re supposed to go broke here vs straights.

People do random crazy **** and finding too many hero folds in these spots can be terrible.
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01-03-2024 , 01:00 AM
thanks all. on the flop, my goal was to be able to 3-bet AI if raised and also to balance with the times when i will have some probing bets into this large field with some less nutted holdings.

the PFR is opening pretty wide and generally does not play back at me much as the host. i do not want to let this check through but i also just won't have a lot of pot size leads in this spot ever. LAG is also very capable of check raising wide here and attacking perceived weakness.

turn, i agree, better to just go full pot.
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01-04-2024 , 01:53 PM
You said villain plays wild the first orbit so I don't see how this is ever a fold.

if he backed into straight, sucks to be you. But villain is going to reveal 2pair, worse sets, AK, and random missed flush draws most of the time.
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01-04-2024 , 02:28 PM
I lost a post I had typed out - I am bad at this game.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ham on rye
thanks all. on the flop, my goal was to be able to 3-bet AI if raised and also to balance with the times when i will have some probing bets into this large field with some less nutted holdings.
I don't think you should have many hands worse than this in your leading range in this spot aginst 3 opponents. In fact, I would lean towards checking my entire range here as a default because what are you betting and how can you balance that with any bluffs? I'd be curious to get peoples thoughts on this in a multi-way spot like this on a dry board, or even a more dynamic board.

I think all leads you have should be larger than 1/3rd though - I can't imagine that is ever going to be the right size on a board like this nad would prefer to see all leads size up to half-pot or larger, if we develop a leading range at all.

Quote:
I raise this hand pre and the whole A:RR:$ds class. Even if you trim some, I'd keep this.
I agree with this as a RFI, but after a button straddle and two limps ahead of us I think we would just be creating a bloated pot oop with a marginal hand and this specific marginal hand doesn't mind playing multi-way but it would generally prefer to play with a higher SPR, so I'm fine with the overlimp. I could be wrong here.

**********************
The river I'm calling for sure, but if we had made changes earlier in the hand I think we end up with an easier decision here.

Edit:
Quote:
Originally Posted by grant2
You said villain plays wild the first orbit so I don't see how this is ever a fold.

if he backed into straight, sucks to be you. But villain is going to reveal 2pair, worse sets, AK, and random missed flush draws most of the time.
Although I agree river is a call I think villain has a straight here quite often due to our small flop bet. It's easy for him to call, closing the action, with a 9 hand that has backdoor straight draws and got there.
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01-04-2024 , 03:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MarkD
Although I agree river is a call I think villain has a straight here quite often due to our small flop bet. It's easy for him to call, closing the action, with a 9 hand that has backdoor straight draws and got there.
It's certainly possible; a straight would not surprise me. But IMO, if the villain's range has an open-ender(?) on the turn, it also has all sorts of weaker hands that missed.

Villain having something like A887 would make a lot of sense to me.
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01-04-2024 , 04:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by grant2
It's certainly possible; a straight would not surprise me. But IMO, if the villain's range has an open-ender(?) on the turn, it also has all sorts of weaker hands that missed.

Villain having something like A887 would make a lot of sense to me.
Lots of combos of open-enders + flush draws as well as wraps on the 964.
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01-17-2024 , 02:47 PM
Sounds as if this is "later" so he's not setting up his image. Not sure a fold is correct, but it might be the right play. I can't imagine he expects you to fold a set. I bet more on flop so this doesn't become an issue.
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