Hero AsAcQh2c in SB, 9 handed. This is a PLO bomb pot in a $2/5 NLH game.

Flop ($90):

AdTd9h

Qc9s8h

Checks to UTG+2 who leads for $60, folds to hero, call, folds around, heads up.

Turn ($210):

(AdTd9h)3h

(Qc9s8h)Qs

Hero checks, villain bets $210, hero calls

River ($630):

(AdTd9h3h)5d

(Qc9s8hQs)2h

Villain bets $630

Hero?

Villain is a fairly solid holdem player, fairly tight. Doesn't really put me in the blender much or bluff a ton. Usually just has it. So I don't know if solid is the right word, but he is definitely not a spewey NLH player. Have not played PLO bomb pots much with him.

By the river, it seems like villain has at least the nuts on one board or two pretty nutted hands. Losing to lots of combos of Q9 or Q8 with diamonds. Choping with? Nut diamonds with a Q, 99, or 88. Not even sure Q9 without diamonds wants to bet here, unless maybe with nut diamond blocker to get off a chop. Maybe a boat plus a set or boat plus two pair, but it doesn't feel like there are nearly as many combos of that compared to boat + flushes. Every once in a while maybe we scoop vs a very overplayed 99 or something like that.

If I call to chop, I need to be good 50% of the time to break even.

Somehow this doesn't feel like a hand we can fold, but the more I think about it, it doesn't seem like a profitable call.

Call or fold?

Also, I assume flop and turn are just mandatory check calls?

cant imagine folding here. You rarely scoop, but you also rarely get scooped.

Yup call river as played. We could make an argument to fold turn but it would be a fairly tight fold.

Have to call. Very slim chance he has both boards. I actually expect to hear he had 10J with diamonds.

would he really blast the turn with JT tho.

If we really count the combos...

What is really telling here is that the Qd is the only queen left in the deck.

I could be wrong, but

Qd9d is a two card hand that wrecks us. There are 14 dead cards from our hand and both boards by river, so excluding the Qd9d we are at 36 cards left I'm the deck. That is a whopping 630 combos of Qd9d.

Then there is Qd9c. He just needs one more diamond, and there are 9 left in the deck. I count 244 combos that have at least one more diamond, not inclusive of the 9d

Then there is Qd8d. I think that is 561 combos not inclusive of the Q9 combos.

Qd8c with least one more diamond. 210 combos not inclusive of the above mentioned hands.

Qd8h with at least one more diamond, 210 more combos not inclusive of the above hands.

So there are 1,855 combos that scoop us that make a lot of sense.

I would have to count out all the 99 and 88 combos with diamonds. And maybe some things that have a KdQd + hearts or two pair / a set on one board. But I am starting to think there are actually way more combos that scoop us than combos we chop with, and almost no combos we scoop. That would make it a definite fold. I am starting to think it might not even be close.

Very good point with Qd!
Still, why shouldnt he just have the nut flush in one board and blasting away, knowing he at least gets half and hoping you might even fold? I don´t see any reason why the nut flush should not be played in that way every time.
How many combos of Kdxd are there?

I may take a look at the combos later. Kind of hard to count combos with 4 cards I am finding, which is part of what makes double board plo bomb pots so difficult. In the face of it, it seems like this is an easy call, but when I start counting combos, I realize I have very little intuition for how many combos of possible hands there are on double board plo bomb pots. I am hoping if I work these out some I will have a better intuition in the future and just be able to say... he has many 100s of possible flush plus boat combos that beat me here and much fewer combos I chop with. But that's not something I can work out at the table.

I think the question is, how much KdXd does he have here that we beat? The fact that there is a 9 on both boards reduces a lot of the 99 combos. It is decent that we hold a Q I guess, but very shitty that we don't have Qd. The fact that he doesn't pot flop but pots turn is troubling, as straights would more want to play flop aggressively and turn cautiously, while two pair/sets would want to play to flop cautiously and the turn aggressively. The 3h on the A high board isn't the kind of card that makes someone want to start blasting off turn because of that board, it almost certainly has to do with the Q pairing and likely is backed up with good draws on the other board.

I disagree with this reasoning. Straights will not want to play this board aggressively unless they have a good draw or made hand on the other board as well. Straights are very vulnerable in double board pots, especially bomb pots, due to the high probability of getting quartered.

I am leaning towards a fold here. We scoop only against bluffs, and although a hand with Qx/99 + Kd or whiffed hearts might take this line, the chance of us winning the whole pot here is slim so basically we are calling to chop and we will also get scooped some of the time.

But it’s close.

However, if V is a Holden player (just noticed this) I call - NLT players tend to value hand strengths differently.

Yeah, holdem players overvalue straights in PLO bomb pots. And I am not really saying this means he would have potted flop with a straight. Only that it looks like he exercises caution on the flop when he loses to straights and shows a lot of confidence on the turn, which makes a turned boat seem really likely.

The other board is so wet, it is hard to really want to shovel money in on the turn without a strong hand on the paired board and likely some draws on the A high board. Especially considering we have AA and a 9 is out on both boards.