4 card PLO -
BB - 105bb
CO (Villain) - 350bb
BTN - 218bb
SB (Hero) - ~300bb

Semi-private game - 40% min VPIP. Hero has ~43% VPIP, Villain is a good aggressive player but loose preflop, ~57% VPIP. From the sessions I've played, villain is the biggest winner, hero is 2nd largest (couple of hundred hours).

hero was dealt A♠️ 8♠️ 10♣️ 2♣️ - with min VPIP restriction, this is an easy over limp + flat. Top 15% hand, so seems okay out of SB. If anyone else is familiar with min VPIP games, let me know if I'm thinking about this wrong.

Villain called 1
BTN called 1
Hero called 0.5
BB raised to 5.4
Villain called 4.4
BTN called 4.4
hero called 4.4

board: K♣️ 5♠️ 3♣️

hero checked
BB checked
Villain bet 16.2
BTN folded
hero called 16.2 - not positive on the flop continuation, gutter + mid FD + BDNFD doesn't have me super enthused, but pretty sure villain is betting these types of boards at a relatively high (accurate) frequency. Any K + components type hand would probably be bet here fairly frequently, e.g. AcKs w or w/o flush draws, setting up for future streets. BB behind is pretty aggro, while also having the lowest SPR so definitely could just be a trivial fold at this spot.
BB folded

Pot (54BB) board: K♣️ 5♠️ 3♣️ J♠️

hero checked
Villain bet 54

Hero - ????. I obviously have equity to just flat here, but thoughts on shoving? If I flat, I have ~1.6 SPR on the river, going over the top on the turn basically pot commits villain (I think). I should be ~43% against sets, blocking broadway combo draws, but obviously am in terrible shape vs higher clubs. That said, K♣️ is on the board, which is great for me I think. Non nut clubs may be folding a lot, especially considering I have the T♣️.

With the 40% vpip constraint the co and bu are going to be extremely wide pre so i would raise pre. You will likely get some folds and if not, your hand plays well multiway and at deeper stacks.

As played, i dont jam turn. I think vs heavy action you dont want to raise without a K in hand.

Good point preflop - some of the players 3! kinda wide, and tbh I didn't realize AT82 ds was top 15% until checking it while typing this up. In general, I'm probably too conservative in SB just generally the combo of deep stack + OOP is very rough in 3! pots.

Yeah, we talked about the hand after the table and there were mixed opinions. Obviously with the K it's a slam dunk, but I thought there was still a fair amount of fold equity generated (non nut clubs, weak 2p, weak combo draws, probably even some bad sets)

Interesting hand. I am sort of curious what a sim looks like here, but also not sure if anyone actually cares about the sims I post so not sure I want to spend the time on it. Have family commitments atm, but I'd come back to this a bit later if interested.

TY - I just looked at some basic stuff, my live thinking that I'm doing okay vs sets/2p holdings was correct (basically any fold equity generated is +EV). I think the double gutter is somewhat meaningful in that I'm double blocking wraps, which is a big part of the calling range I'm behind (combo draw w/ a pair is real rough for me basically). Obviously as played, it was almost a pure flip, but tbh I thought villain's hand was the type of thing I might fold out.

Fold flop, call turn.

Yeah, without running any numbers I think another aspect of this play that makes me want to like it is that I think you need some "bluffs" like this in your check raise range, although you don't need too many.

I'm curious to see the results of your work as this spot would take a little while to work out.

This a good way to think about it. How enthused are we about our hand? If not super: fold

This hand would make a nice x/r if we had any pair blocker.

Yeah, I didn't write any of it down unfortunately. It was mostly even EV before fold equity, so any fold equity generated was +EV. The range that I'm most likely to get called down by (sets, KJ, wrap + single FD, double FD, etc) I had just under 45% when I looked. I think on balance, having either a pair blocker or maybe the nut front door FD might be a little better. The hand class I'm doing worst against is better clubs + something else, so removing that possibility is pretty impactful. That said, I agree that having a check-raise here with something besides sets/2p seems worthwhile, so maybe I should just work on hitting my outs next time.

Yeah i dunno why i didnt pick this up first. Flop defs a fold

Preflop is gonna be quite an interesting street given this requirement. I'd be completing a lot from the SB given its so cheap - think a raise with this hand is lighting money on fire - as well as overlimping as many hands as possible from button. I would also be trying to look at who's being nitty and trying to sneak in over the limit and punish them by raising their limps or raising in front of them.

Fold flop, call turn.

Think the call pre is good - wouldn't want to bloat the pot with a raise as this hand is not easy to play OOP this deep. I'd probably consider donking the flop or just x/f - we have an inferior FD and our best turn card is hitting the gutter but its not even the nut gutter. Shoving the turn is terrible - he's potting away multi way so his range is sets, 2pr+, nut draws that block yours. In terms of clean outs you have the spades, the two gutshots - if you hit clubs you're not getting paid and he might have better clubs. I think the chances of getting paid here would be best if we hit the gutshot, maybe we get paid
on spades but not as often as the gutshots. I think calling is correct here - but would rate your actions call >fold>jam.

Turn is HU, he donked flop for 3/4 multiway

Folding flop seems way too nitty?

Can only call turn I don’t think we have any FE and tbh clubs is not good a lot of the time here. KK,Kx with better clubs, Nut clubs with wrap and pair is worst for us.

I don’t think folding turn is bad.

It's 4 way and we have a non-nut gutshot and a non nut FD. If we didn't have a BDNFD it would be an easy fold but having it isn't enough to make it a call either. We're not last to act - BB can call behind which is worse for us because it's even more likely our draws aren't to the best hand. And the bet is 3/4 too - a smaller bet and we're getting better odds on the BDNFD.

edit: Confused how you say folding flop is nitty but then say you don't think folding turn is bad when we hit the best possible card... I mean this is why you're supposed to fold flop.

FWIW, pretty sure villain is leading out 3/4 pot with his entire range on this board texture. The flop call was definitely too loose. That said, I'm surprised no one thinks I get worthwhile fold equity on a turn shove.

I feel like a lot of people think of PLO as a draws game. It is, but it's also a pairs game. The value of your hand is very low on the flop and would go up significantly with any pair and thus any chance to improve to good two pair or trips.

You don't have much fold equity on the turn because a) there's a ****load of draws available that he can put you on, and a bunch of good draw + pair type hands he can have that will not be looking to fold either. That there are so many draws that could jam means he's likely not betting unless he's planning on calling, not when he could take a free card. He's also bet the full pot, signifying that he likes his hand. For you to have fold equity he has to have basically precisely KJ with no redraw. Again, if you had a good pair to go with your good draw, you would consider value-shoving. But you have ace-high and are likely to get looked up, so you should just call.

To be perfectly honest I didn’t examine the hand history very thoroughly the first time around, I didn’t see we were 300bb deep and I didn’t realise there were players left to act apart from PFR.

Agree folding flop. +1

As for turn since we do arrive there, we have odds to call I agree, but I’m only looking for spades or my gutters. +1

Jamming turn is spew imho. +100

Also just realised there was a spoiler so I’ve had a look and I regret posting anything since this hand is pretty much just nonsense. I’m tilted IRL. :/

I think flatting here is preferred as there's more area for v calling a bet on the river with two fds and straight draws out there v could think your bluffing when one of the draws hit. I'd say def. In this pot with vs hand he calls a 40 percent pot bet 70 percent of the of the time even when a draw hits.