** Hand # 2068269945 starting - 2008-06-25 15:46:28
** Sailor herald [Omaha] (0.25|0.50 PL - Cash Game) Real Money

Simpson_H sitting in seat 1 with $50.07
kelkka1 sitting in seat 2 with $29.52
jimmychestnu sitting in seat 3 with $9.35
regic sitting in seat 4 with $39.80
HERO sitting in seat 5 with $123.22
nightfoxswe sitting in seat 6 with $10.35[Dealer]
Simpson_H posted the small blind - $0.25
kelkka1 posted the big blind - $0.50

** Dealing cards to jon9517: 5, 10, K, K

jimmychestnu raised to $1.75
regic called - $1.75
HERO called - $1.75
nightfoxswe called - $1.75
Simpson_H called - $1.75
kelkka1 folded

** Dealing the flop: 3, K, 3

Simpson_H bet - $4.62
jimmychestnu went all-in - $7.60
regic folded
jon9517 called - $7.60
nightfoxswe folded
Simpson_H called - $7.60

** Dealing the turn: 4

Simpson_H bet - $16.02

Hero?

Table was loose preflop but no-one with a full stack stood out as being aggressive postflop, and of course villain sat down not more than 6 hands ago.

My problem here is I have been playing short to build my br, so normally most my chips are in on the flop. I don't really have any idea what to do here at all, any specific help would be cool.

My thoughts at the time were the shorty could easily have a 3, so villain could be betting his 3rd nuts into my 2nd... more I think about it this is a super easy call and boo hoo if he has quads?

It's not an instacall imo.


It's a shove.

You can't be serious, OP

lol

amazing analysis!!! the best i have seen in ages.

KKxx is only playable for quad mining, fold flop. drawing to 1-outers is burning money in the long run even if you occassionally will hit the case king on the turn.

dont post the beats here, thats for BBV. How could you even think of folding the second nuts here?

entirely serious sadly...

the thing is:

many players coming from a NLH-background autostack off with good hands in PLO, like AAxx on low flops, KKxx on K33 boards etc.

but, in PLO you get four cards instead of two, making great hands is much easier because you have 6 combinations instead of one.

if you have for example A A 4 2 and the flop comes 5 6 7 you should not stack off automaticly.

same applies when you like now have KKT5 and the flop comes K33, you must be very caucious, if a player shows interest at this flop in a five way pot its about 55% chance he have four threes. as I said you can take a card off and hope to spike the last king but thats a long shot so folding the flop is by far the best play. also, IF you call and spike the last king and Villian is a good PLO player he will not pay you off with 3333 because your hand is almost face up so your implied odds is often limited.

conclusion, PLO is not like NLT, in NLT you should not fold KK on a K33 flop because the likehood someone have four threes is not that big at all.

^^^This,

and btw hattifnatt, I've heard that in NLHE, the chance someone got 33 on a K33 type of board goes down from 55% to 13%! Not kidding!

QFT

The true nut peddler never plays the overfull

Are we seriously thinkin about folding here esp at this level? Just get it in and move on.

It's a pretty standard fold, but if you have a really good read you might call I guess

you are mainly a NLH player, right?

where's that lame-ass Jennifer Tilly gimmick account

In addition to having quad threes, you would also want to account for those times when he also has a pair of fours in his hand, and then hits runner runner quads. Or maybe sixes.

I think you could rule out sevens.

I still can't tell if this post is a level or not. If not, can you explain the 55% math, please?

In this particular hand, I don't think most players are going to pot the flop with quads. I think you see A3 or K3 here way more often than quads.

it's close but i'd say fold, he could also have AAAA in the hole for pocket quads

Both of the all-in players have 3s, this is one of the easier shoves in the history of easy shoves.

Fold, it's important in Omaha not to go broke with second nuts.

This **** is really confusing. I would never fold here, not at that level. If u fold second nuts after a raise to 16$, why play in the first place? Just sitting around and wait for the unbeatable, absolute nuts? Right..

the 55% number was actually just a quick estimation but I can try to prove it with combinatorics. I might get flamed and I cannot promise its 100% accurate or anything so take it with a pinch of salt.

its 4 players seeing the flop except OP, they have 4 cards each thats 16 cars total. its three cards on the flop and four in OPs hand, 52 - 3 - 4 = 45.

16/45 ~ 35% of the cards are out.

players at 0.25/0.50 are more inclined to play hands containing pairs than not (because pairs are so strong in NLH and they can flop quads) so you can add 10% because of that.

OP has two kings in his hand which makes it impossible for someone else having the 2nd nuts (which might take a stab at the pot and see what happens), add 10% for that as well.

35% + 10% + 10% = 55%

Results: when someone shows interest on this flop he has quads 55% of the time and something else 45% of the time.

OP have not reveiled the results yet but if he does and it shows that Villian indeed held four threes that should be a pretty strong indicator that the probablilty he had that exact hand was >50% and maybe even very close to 55%.

Sebok?

Villain has the nuts here like always. Sometimes he even has the nut straight flush redraw to improve his hand further.

Very easy fold.