This is an unusual situation but it happens from time to time, would be good to get some feedback not just regarding this player but also what you might do against other player types.


CO: 70.4BB
BN: 95.8BB
SB (Villain): 241BB
EP(Hero): 105.9BB

Hero has A♣️4♣️T♠️Q♦️

Preflop
Hero raises 3.5BB, fold, CO calls, BN calls, SB calls, fold


Flop (15BB) T♣️ 8♥️ A♦️
SB checks, Hero bets 15BB, CO calls, fold, SB calls

Turn (60BB) 5♦️
SB checks, Hero bets 60BB, fold, SB calls

River (174.6BB) 7♦️
SB bets all-in for 27.4BB, Hero?



Played on Unibet, not a lot of history with villain but could tell they were barely a level 1 thinker, they played very weak hands OOP, chased any draw bigger than a gutshot without considering pot odds and overvalued hands excessively once they were made. From this it seemed unlikely they would push here as a bluff, but I wouldn't rule it out. However even if they did do that, the number of hands they could possibly be bluffing with (given that players like this wouldn't be shoving 2p) equals unsuited QJ/KQJ, maybe unsuited KJ/KQ with a pair or maybe Q9, possibly an ace with 432, and that's it. Also I don't know that they would even call turn with the worse ones.


Taking all of the possible draws that improved to better than 2pair on the river and considering (with good reason) that they would push all of them. assuming (also with good reason) that they would check any two pair or an ace, and assuming that they would bluff with any single pair T or lower, 7.4:1 is a good enough price to call. However if I reduce the number of bluffing combinations to even half of that (including my dead cards), it becomes a fold. It's actually pretty common for this general player type not to bluff any river at this price because they don't imagine ever getting a fold, but it just feels dirty folding this hand for such a small bet.

The times I have talked myself into heroing here, they always just have a flush. Especially if your read on them as a level 1 thinker is correct. Just look at the remaining 25bb as money saved.

check flop

Why?

Lots of reasons, but mostly because we should be checking a lot of hands in this situation (EP open raise, two in position callers == LOTS OF CHECKING). The hands we want to bet with are primarily hands we want to stack off with and on this board I don't think we have enough blockers to want to stack off. When I say a lot of checking, I mean we can almost range check here.



This is simply not a hand you want to be betting because it lacks visibility on future streets, there are very few good turn cards for us where we will be able to barrel again out of position, and if we get to the river after firing two streets we will be a tricky situation on basically all run outs except runner runner flush. We basically have bad equity against 3 opponents despite the absolute rank of our hand at the present moment. We also want to control the pot because if we play it like hero and money goes in and the pot gets huge we will usually be in trouble or have to fold like this. We have showdown value we want to realize, but not enough we want to play a monster yet.

So, we check and see. We can either fold, call, or raise when it gets back to us.

Hey Mark, what software is this? Thanks in advance!

That's way more useful than what I was asking for, thanks, I wasn't looking at the right part of the hand. I play micros atm and the opponents in this hand were weak, so I figured I wanted to charge the many poor draws and made hands they would call with. But I guess with a high chance of a MW turn and even with players that overvalue draws and made hands that's actually a bad thing. XR is definitely the play on reflection.

It’s not always going to be a XR after you X. Sometimes you will XR; sometimes you will XC; and sometimes you will XF.

FlopHero. It has its own issues but it’s nice to have some sort of reference. I’m not sure I always trust the result and I don’t like that it uses so many bet sizes, but I’d recommend it and they have made some really nice UI upgrades like these strength bucket views.

Have to call river.

I meant against these players. I don't think there's any need for mixed strategies where I play.

Why is that? How often does a passive fish donkbet shove at 7:1 on the river with air in your experience?

I didn't mean to mix; I meant after you check, if it's a bet and a raise, you can probably fold. If it's a bet and a call, you can probably call and see what the turn brings and then fire. I just mean it gives you freedom to maneuver, and different scenarios will present themselves. There are a lot of bad turn cards where you'd prefer the pot to be small.

That makes sense.

At least 1 time out of 7.

And I don’t think it’s even close, like all the broadway wraps/pair/d blockers brick.

If they are bluffing 1 time out of every 7 opportunities they have to bluff then it's a fold. It's a call if they bluff at every opportunity, but it actually is fairly close as I put the range they could be shoving for value at about a 5:1 ratio against Tx or worse that they could bluff with. There's a decent margin of error but I really don't think it's a mandatory call.

The reason is that I don't think calling stations in the micros are likely to donkshove as a bluff on rivers without initiative when the SPR is so low, because they don't expect to ever get folds from a made hand. They're also right and it's not about reads or fundamentals like SPR, players in the micros just don't fold anything with SDV for such a small price and even a fish is likely to know that. I can't be sure of anything though because if they have literally nothing then there's no way to win but betting, probably depends on the individual but surely there'll be a decent amount of check-folding.

*edit: It's as much as 5:1 because stations at these stakes never turn top pair or better into a bluff. Maybe it happens sometimes but I haven't seen it. They check and hope it wins every time.

You asked for opinions, I gave you mine.

Appreciated.

From your description they are calling all J9 combos on the flop ... and probably shoving all on the river. Probably more 986 combos. than you'd think too.


Though I'd try not to hate myself for the call, just do what Mark said in future and don't be here.