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How many hours to get an idea of win rate for LIVE play? How many hours to get an idea of win rate for LIVE play?

06-27-2024 , 09:48 AM
Since starting to play professionally, I'm coming up on 600 hours live play. Poker bankroll tracker says it's ~18k hands. That's about ~3.5 months if playing 40 hours a week.

I'm almost thinking it takes around 100k hands. Not sure if that's excessive. But with the variance of PLO is there even a sample size for live play to get an idea?

Other problem is the places I play have diff straddle sizes and everybody always straddles. One place it's $10 max straddle the other it's $5 max. This obviously changes bb/hr.

I'm mostly just concerned about knowing whether I'm a winning player or not.

I play VERY exploitative in my games. It can be seen as high variance play. I def play hands you shouldn't but I'm very good at having an idea of what people have, can get away from hands others can't, and am capable of playing for stacks/putting people in difficult spots with aggression in spots others won't since they don't realize how close equities can be (for example: if I have KQT9ds and I know they have AA cuz they only 3bet/4bet AAXX. If I hit a pair+gutter I know we are basically flipping if all of my cards are live and we GII. So I'll put max pressure since I can get folds and if called I still have plenty of equity). Obviously there are other dynamics like board texture, the V tendencies, etc. whether I play a hand a certain way.

Also bluffing with no blockers can be suicidal but a lot of players in these games play so face up it's easy to get away with it (they won't bet fold on a scare card on the river, don't trap, etc). The few better players that sometimes come around, my strategy doesn't tend to work that great since they are thinking players and have an idea on my aggressive play.

Main reason I mention all of this is cuz it gives an idea on how I play since it's not ABC and how it can be high variance. Which is why it makes me think it's almost impossible to know a true win rate. But I'm also curious even with ABC play how many hands it may be.
How many hours to get an idea of win rate for LIVE play? Quote
06-27-2024 , 09:53 AM
https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

Check the difference between worst and best run at 100k hands.
How many hours to get an idea of win rate for LIVE play? Quote
06-27-2024 , 10:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by amok
https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

Check the difference between worst and best run at 100k hands.
Amazing over 100k hands that there's 23,000 bb difference between worst run and best run with a 10 bb winrate.
How many hours to get an idea of win rate for LIVE play? Quote
06-27-2024 , 01:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by amok
https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

Check the difference between worst and best run at 100k hands.
So it seems like there isn't even enough hands in a lifetime to actually judge if you're a winning player or just lucky.
How many hours to get an idea of win rate for LIVE play? Quote
06-28-2024 , 09:39 AM
Even with a giant sample size you could be a winning player today but things can change in a few years. If we enter another recession the "loose money" can virtually disappear (or be reduced to a few crumbs) almost overnight. Keep poker as a side hustle if at all possible.
How many hours to get an idea of win rate for LIVE play? Quote
06-28-2024 , 04:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phraust
So it seems like there isn't even enough hands in a lifetime to actually judge if you're a winning player or just lucky.
Yep, which is why you should not focus on results. Study poker to understand the game better and try to bring your A-game every time you play. Results will likely come.
How many hours to get an idea of win rate for LIVE play? Quote

      
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