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How do we play the nuts on this flop? How do we play the nuts on this flop?

04-26-2024 , 10:44 PM
Ignition - $0.05 PL Hi (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 50.8 BB
BB: 100 BB
UTG: 162.2 BB
MP: 123.4 BB
CO: 192.4 BB
Hero (BTN): 259.8 BB


Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has T 6 K Q

fold, MP calls 1 BB, CO raises to 2 BB, Hero calls 2 BB, fold, BB raises to 3 BB, MP calls 2 BB, CO raises to 4 BB, Hero calls 2 BB, BB calls 1 BB, MP calls 1 BB

Flop: (16.4 BB, 4 players) J 9 Q
BB bets 2 BB, MP calls 2 BB, CO calls 2 BB, Hero raises to 25.6 BB, BB calls 23.6 BB, fold, CO raises to 120 BB, Hero raises to 255.8 BB and is all-in, BB calls 70.4 BB and is all-in, CO calls 68.4 BB and is all-in


Pre-flop, I think flatting the 4-bet might be suspect in theory, but it was just 2 more BBs, and I felt there was a good chance we wouldn't get re-raised again.

On the flop, I have the nuts. However, I don't have any hearts, and I could be dominated by AKTx.

With SPR effectively around 12, are we just getting it in? I raised the full pot because there was so much previous action, I knew someone had to at least have a flush draw. Is there any world where we call the CO's raise to 120BB and wait for a safe runout?
How do we play the nuts on this flop? Quote
04-26-2024 , 10:56 PM
Very easy fold pre, obvious call to the min raises.

I think I'd just flat that min-bet on the flop. Yes you can raise, but then you are going to need to go with it and your hand is not super strong. After CO makes it 120bb there is not enough left for flatting to make a difference.
How do we play the nuts on this flop? Quote
04-26-2024 , 11:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by amok
Very easy fold pre, obvious call to the min raises.

I think I'd just flat that min-bet on the flop. Yes you can raise, but then you are going to need to go with it and your hand is not super strong. After CO makes it 120bb there is not enough left for flatting to make a difference.

Interesting. My instinct was to raise to get protection against draws, but since our straight is vulnerable, it's better to pot control?

Reveal: I was chopping with the CO who also had KT (we had 57% equity combined) versus the BB, who had 43% equity with NFD and top pair.
How do we play the nuts on this flop? Quote
04-26-2024 , 11:19 PM
Try to think more in terms of equity and less in terms of protection. Your hand simply is not good enough. Note that if you played a reasonable starting hand you'd always have some sort of redraw...
How do we play the nuts on this flop? Quote
04-26-2024 , 11:54 PM
Okay, I hear you. Is this the correct way I should think about this spot?



With 47.5 BB in the pot, SPR is about 2. I need about 40% equity to GII.

If Villain has 68 or J8, I have 25% equity. However, if he just has a random straight + flush draw, I have about 68% equity. So, is it reasonable to shove here?

I ended up shoving, and he folded, but I'm not sure if I played it correctly.
How do we play the nuts on this flop? Quote
04-27-2024 , 12:39 AM
That shove is pure protection. Very few worse hands are calling you and it's unlikely he will bet-fold a straight so most better hands are calling you. So when nearly all worse fold and nearly all better call you are purely protecting your equity. Not that it's necessarily always bad. Can't really comment without full action whether I'd call or shove there.
How do we play the nuts on this flop? Quote
04-27-2024 , 01:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by amok
That shove is pure protection. Very few worse hands are calling you and it's unlikely he will bet-fold a straight so most better hands are calling you. So when nearly all worse fold and nearly all better call you are purely protecting your equity. Not that it's necessarily always bad. Can't really comment without full action whether I'd call or shove there.
True, I wasn't expecting any worse hands to call. Prior action was:

Ignition - $0.10 PL Hi (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (MP): 117.3 BB
CO: 369 BB
BTN: 213.5 BB
SB: 62.5 BB
BB: 59.8 BB
UTG: 163.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 3 K T T

fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, CO calls 2 BB, BTN calls 2 BB, SB calls 1.5 BB, BB calls 1 BB

Flop: (10 BB, 5 players) 7 T 5
SB checks, BB bets 1 BB, Hero raises to 12.5 BB, CO calls 12.5 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 11.5 BB

Turn: (47.5 BB, 3 players) 9
BB checks, Hero checks, CO bets 33.9 BB, fold, Hero raises to 102.8 BB and is all-in, fold,
How do we play the nuts on this flop? Quote
04-27-2024 , 09:38 AM
Cold-calling that flop the 9 hits him very well. I would always call turn.

Also I think you should focus on your pre-flop play. In most of your posted hands you get involved with very weak holdings in a game that has a huge rake.
How do we play the nuts on this flop? Quote
04-27-2024 , 09:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by amok
Cold-calling that flop the 9 hits him very well. I would always call turn.

Also I think you should focus on your pre-flop play. In most of your posted hands you get involved with very weak holdings in a game that has a huge rake.
You're cold-calling the flop even though lots of straight draws are out there?

The overall lesson I'm taking is: When we are non-nutted, we should play more passively. I'm focusing too much on "protection." But if he has a straight, I'm in very bad shape. And if he has a strong draw, I'm just a small favorite. So I'd rather keep the pot small on the turn and re-evaluate on the river.

You bring up an interesting point on the rake. Over a very small sample size, I'm crushing the game for 39.97 BB/100, but am paying 27.85 BB/100 in rake. (I didn't think this was possible, but the math checks out).

So, my logic for playing wide is: These players are making huge mistakes post-flop, so when I do flop sets, I have tons of implied odds. But the rake is extraordinary, so it might catch up with me after a while.

How do we play the nuts on this flop? Quote
04-27-2024 , 09:37 PM
When I filter by 10 PLO hands, I've made 113.44 BB/100 ($117.86 USD), but have paid 31.36 BB/100 ($32.58 USD) in rake. Is this possible when Ignition just rakes 5%?

How do we play the nuts on this flop? Quote
04-27-2024 , 10:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MegaWhale69
You're cold-calling the flop even though lots of straight draws are out there?
No I mean CO's range (he cold-calls) hits the turn very well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MegaWhale69
You bring up an interesting point on the rake. Over a very small sample size, I'm crushing the game for 39.97 BB/100, but am paying 27.85 BB/100 in rake. (I didn't think this was possible, but the math checks out).

So, my logic for playing wide is: These players are making huge mistakes post-flop, so when I do flop sets, I have tons of implied odds. But the rake is extraordinary, so it might catch up with me after a while.
Yes, your opposition is very weak, but still you should be playing a rather tight pre-flop strategy not only due to rake, but also not to learn bad habits. I think "implied odds" is a lie.
How do we play the nuts on this flop? Quote
04-28-2024 , 01:07 AM
This is a pretty basic question, but I'm curious.



In a spot like this, we have a made hand vs draw, each with 50% equity. If both players announced their hands, neither has fold equity, they both know they're pot committed.

Which player has the incentive to get all the money in on the flop vs which would prefer to keep the pot small on the flop, and then re-evaluate based on the turn?

Shoving with a draw obviously makes sense when we have fold equity. But when we don't have fold equity, does it ever make sense to just call on the flop, even if we are 100% pot committed? Or is shoving essential, so we're guaranteed to get paid when we hit our draw?
How do we play the nuts on this flop? Quote
04-28-2024 , 06:25 AM
The draw here should shove because it only has 15 outs and can't call a turn pot bet when it misses due to insufficient pot odds, winning the hand only 15/41 of the time and under-realizing its equity. Assuming the players are rational of course
How do we play the nuts on this flop? Quote
04-28-2024 , 06:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paper Tiger
The draw here should shove because it only has 15 outs and can't call a turn pot bet when it misses due to insufficient pot odds, winning the hand only 15/41 of the time and under-realizing its equity. Assuming the players are rational of course
We have 40% vs his exact hand OTT and 37% vs all sets, need 33%.

Regarding how to play the hand, in a vacuum im not sure. Kind of whatever, either way doesnt seem big difference so short. If we call, we will call off any non paired turn. In real life we cant put villains on top sets on these boards, they have plenty of worse draws too, its a no brainer call off on non paired turns.

Anyway i think i shove flop with our hand right away, i dont want to call and fold out our equity on paired turns.

Last edited by J0hny; 04-28-2024 at 07:06 AM. Reason: fixed eq error
How do we play the nuts on this flop? Quote
04-28-2024 , 11:20 AM
My bad, I made a mistake there, I'll try again.
Now it looks to me that calling with the draw is higher EV than shoving, because we can call on turn blanks, but the other player can't call on any club, Q, T, or 7. We can calculate the exact EV when hands are revealed because when 1 player is ahead, he knows that and will bet pot.

After the flop call, we win by potting on 16 turn cards which complete our draw = 16/41 = 39% of the time
We lose the pot on 6 turn cards where we have 0 equity = 14.6% of the time
We have 40% equity on blanks on which we are forced to call a PSB
EV = 0.39*1 + 0.146* 0 + 0.46 * [(0.4 * 1.33) + 0.6 * (-0.33)]
= ~ 0.54 compared with 0.5 if we were all in on the flop
How do we play the nuts on this flop? Quote
04-28-2024 , 11:40 AM
Good point vs 100bb yea.

The hand MW posted is only 50bb deep and SPR 1 if we just call flop.
That why i said it doesnt matter much, usually nobody is making money in this spot (except vs big fish who have TP+badFD type of hands), because its often just a flip and money goes in anyway this short.

Im not good enough to make these distinctions on the fly ingame like you described and ultimately i think there is no impact on wr whatever you do here. Impossible to make a big mistake.

Last edited by J0hny; 04-28-2024 at 11:49 AM.
How do we play the nuts on this flop? Quote
04-28-2024 , 12:07 PM
Especially in lower stakes you can just ship the nfd+wrap for value. They go broke too light in general and don't understand how some draws are totally dominated by better draws. I would get as much money in as possible as fast as possible with the nfd+wrap.
How do we play the nuts on this flop? Quote
04-29-2024 , 11:07 AM
Garbage hand that you should dump pre, but would say folding > raising > calling. This hand plays poorly multiway - luckily you flopped the nuts but an overall bad call.
How do we play the nuts on this flop? Quote
04-29-2024 , 08:01 PM
You are on a heater after small sample. Play tighter pre.
How do we play the nuts on this flop? Quote
04-30-2024 , 12:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hazelasty
You are on a heater after small sample. Play tighter pre.
Yeah, I hear you. I'm starting to play tighter.
How do we play the nuts on this flop? Quote

      
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