did the top 5 guys from every single club have season ending injuries or something? otherwise its not comparable to runner runner quads

There is a lot of luck involved in football from shooting conversion rates to injuries. Leicester had pretty much everything going for them this season. When Chuck bet at 2000-1 he was a fairly big dog in my opinion.

haha you don't have a clue about football. its like wtf5 said, theres tons of lucky involded in football games.

often comments on tv say''omg thats why i love football, its always surprise'' . obv i always think ''imagine if they learn plo''.

when chuck bet at 2000:1 the true odds was 0, i mean, just impossible. idk how they won , lol .

other guy has royal flush, you have AA on board AAQJ. river is A of moon the card that nobody ever see before, and you win with 5 of kind . thats = leicester champ .

Its pretty hard to estimate what the real odds should be for something that unlikely, I guess you could look at every competitive football leagues where is 15-20 teams and they play 35-45 games and find out how often if ever has a team ranked bottom in the pre-season predictions won it to get any samplesize.

my only point is everyone is ignoring we now have more information. they did actually win. there might be a lot more luck in football than I know about, but their odds were obviously not 0 or 500k to 1

i agree with krmont, but then again i guess i would

it's really impossible to estimate the actual odds, but krmont's assertion that the fact that they won implies that the odds were inflated is correct imo, and is not an example of the gambler's fallacy, like omgkarascott posted.

When i put the bet on after week 5, their form over the last 14 games in the league was 10 wins 3 draws 1 loss, 33 points out of 42 availabe, for an average of 2.36 PPG, which is title winning form. I can almost guarantee no team with this form over this many games has ever, in any league, has odds even close to 1/2000.

But hey like i said, impossible to prove, but I reckon run the league 100 more times from week 6 and they win at least a handful. They were just that good.

Very nice bet ChuckBass, congrats and u definitely have big balls to make that bet, like in SouthPark ep s14e03 called Medicinal Fried Chicken. If u wanna have big lols watch it

Btw how do u feel when Leicester started to win a lot of games and ofc when they beat City away.

Here is a very good vines for Lecicester
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iXhF4DdetCw
I wathed it a lot of time coz has good music, very nice goals and ofc its mega motivation video.

I read that there was 1/5000 odds pre season so why do u bet at 1/2000?
I read waht u jsut post and that u put that bet after week 5.

haha, that happens to be in my top 5 eps actually.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lhFfPVCUt04

To answer your question, yeah after city away was when they became favourites in my eyes, although before that I had been allowed myself to dream since around december.

Over that 10 game they were converting their chances at an unsustainably high rate which continued for the first half of the season. When their conversion started to cool off in the 2nd half of the season and their performances worsened, their defence turned from leaking 2 goals a game to atletico madrid-like numbers which meant they won a lot of games 1-0. They were lucky in front of goal, lucky when teams were in front of their goal and had no major injuries throughout the season. No other title challenger benefited from a positive skew on their chance conversion and Leicester had a major skew in their favour. The best team in the league overall were spurs and they were very unlucky not to win it.

I'm not denying they ran very well, just saying imo theres no way they were as slim as 2000/1.

I can't be sure what the true odds were but I'd be surprised if they were around 2000/1 and shocked if they were much shorter. If you find some work done by football analytic guys that support you I'd be very interested in what they have to say

p.s. congrats on the big win!

HAhahHAHhahahHAHA this is beyond hilarious and so ****ing true, kind of hard to transcribe into US sports but its beyond sick

Won a huge free roll the other day got my 2k stack in on the AKT flop with QJTT vs naked QJ turn 4 river 4!

Ran it once :-)

I think the fact that he made the bet after 5 games, and they where 2nd at that time, really is a big deal. After 5 games, they had 11 out of their current 77 points. Knowing the number 2 in the league currently has 70 points, they had to get 60 points in the next 31 games, to be the current number 1. That's less than 2 points a game, for a team in great form. Not like you expect them to win, but betting that at 1:2000 seems like a great bet.

Betting 1:4000 or whatever, pre-season is a suckers bet. But that good start changed a lot.

the 2000;1 was a very good bet for chuck. dont forget, in England all premier leaugue teams get an equal share of tv revenue (close to 95m per year) which makes their playing field way more level than lets say Spain (where Barca and Real get more than the 18 other clubs combined). If a wild horse was to come in as champion in one of the stronger competitions it had to be England and I think the bet is heavily plus ev for 2000:1 with allready 3 wins and 2 draws after 5 matches...

ps. Dont forget all the comments from the bigger betting sites stating they will not give away these insane odds anymore for a possible outcome like a football championship. I think they also see they gave horendous odds here..

It could also be that even if the true odds are higher this gives them the freedom to set the line much lower in the future and have people still punt on it

After 20 games of the season Leicester were sitting 2nd behind Arsenal by 2 points. A group of football analytic projected the probability of Leicester winning the title from there to be 4%. You can argue that their models aren't fully explaining the likelihood of teams finishing in certain positions but until someone smarter than them can show why I'm going to stick with the opinion of ppl smarter than me. Imagine the odds they would have given Leicester after just 5 games of a season where there are teams after 5 games that have 10-13 points that you know don't really belong there and will drop down as the season progresses. Lets also consider other factors:

The team only just survived last season and they are suppose to average 2 points per game over 38 games?

They had a new manager in Ranieri who doesn't have a particularly good CV and had never won a major league title before.

As far as I am aware, no team in the modern era in a major European league has won the title playing a similar style to Leicester of having less possession than their opponents, playing a high % of long passes and having a very a direct style.

Simple things like the amount of penalties Leicester got went their way (I'm not saying they didn't deserve as many as they got but just getting them itself is a big thing). Raheem Sterling and Aguero have been chopped down in the box numerous times this season and often ended up getting booked lol.

I don't think you can make a case that 2000-1 were 'good' odds for Leicester after 5 games.

see the 5 games leicester played when chuck made the bet. ( it sounds stupid saying this after chuck bet 100 and won 200k. just trying to say that leicester is amazing because they made the impossible. if i was chuck id be like 'whatever, i won weeeeee''

1st game home, won 4 x 2 vs sunderland, who is 17th, probably going to 2nd division).

2nd game away, won 2x1 vs watford. this team was one of the candidates to go to 2nd division when league started. being at 12th its a surprise.

3rd game home, 1x1 vs toteham. this is a solid result, but at this time, toteham wasn't a favorite to win, it was that kinda of team that is always 5-6th. (i think their 2nd position this year its their best of all history)

4th game away , 1x1 vs bournemouth. this team just came from 2nd division, one of favorites to go to 2nd division. 15th atm.

5th game home, 3x2 vs aston vila. bad team, its the last in the league.

so as you can see, they didn't have any great results. obvious, many ''small'' results togheter make it decent results, but no reason to imagine that they could win. 2000:1 odds at this point wasn't a good bet, just for a drunk chuckbass !

what chuck said about the 14/15 season, they had won most games to escape from 2nd division, is true and make a diference, but still, the end of season, some teams aren't playing their maximum because most teams don't fight for anything , some already in the champions, others already 8-12th, not much to do .

also, remember chelsea, after 5 games chelsea was still a favorite. they started bad, but everyone still thought they would recover and fight for the title .

I dont have any math to back my statement except that the ratio of the biggest spending club on wages (Chelsea) vs leicester in premier leaugue is 5;1.
compared to spain where the biggest spender can spend 28 times as much as the smallest. In germany that ratio is about 11;1, in Holland 13;1, in France 19;1 etc etc.

But I will offer a bet here to put my money (just a litle bit ) where my mouth is.
For next season I will bet 5000;1 (same preseason odds as leicester got) for the lowest 3 teams that stay in the premier leaugue, as well any of the 3 promoting clubs coming from the Championship. Leicester actually did better last season than any of the clubs Im asking for.
Im willing to bet basically any amount up to 100 bucks

Ace of Moon just cracked me the *** up LOL

the $ share its a solid argument, but no salary cap, arabia owner of city can buy anyone, abaramovich w chelsea can put any amount of money there, so the diference still huge .

problem about compare any league vs spain, its because barca and real are from another planet haha. i think i agree that at spain is harder for a small team, lets say granada, win the title .

your bet is that teams who finished 15th, 16th, 17th AND the 3 teams who get from 2nd division, this 6 teams will stay in 1st division for the next season ? its interesting bet. not betting myself, but will follow this teams to see it.

but im sure this is less harder than leicester winning the title

will be interesting to see what odds will be for bournemoth or sunderland/norwich (if they survive) winning the title for the next season.

The risk/reward for that bet is a tad dangerous for me even tho I think the bet is +EV for my side. Maybe someone else would want to take you up on it tho.

Hahaha same thing here!

By the way, since when urubu s english became that good? Very impresive man! Joeypodacst one time?

To clarify, Ill take any of those teams for 5000;1 for up to 100 bucks each. Leicester was 14th last year in premier league.

In general I´d be interested in betting, but not at 5000:1.
For example you could lay Burnley (one of the newly promoted teams from the Championship for those of you who don´t follow English football) for 1000:1 at Betfair right now.

I admit that the market volume is incredible low currently, but if the lay bet is available at 1000:1 right now your 5000:1 seems to be way off (at least for Burnley).

If you would be willing to back any of the teams in question for a lower price than 5000:1 I´m sure you would get some action.