Hi everyone,

playing PLO5 online, 5 handed.

I am in the CO with QcJsTcTs2s. One limp in front of me, I limp, button pots, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls, I call.

So 4 ways to the flop with almost 22bb in the pot. I have around 140bb left, Villain (button) has me covered. Other two are shorter but not super short.

Flop:

QhQd8d

Check, check, check, Button bets third pot. Call from UTG and myself.

He could have the NFD, just aces, or maybe Q or 88. He is marked as loose pre, so he opens too much (40% VPIP). I think raising is too risky, I get called by boats or better trips than myself and i am drawing super slim against those, due to the pair in my hand. Having the backup SD i think is cancelled by not having the FD nor any blockers to it.

Turn:

2h

I make my boat, so i am happy at least i beat 88 and any FD or bare trips. UTG checks, I check to keep bluffs in and Button bets half pot. UTG is out of the way and I just call. Anything different here? Lead ? Raise? I personally think both are a bit out of line.

Was prepared to c/c most rivers, but then:

River:
Ah

Completing the backdoor FD is irrelevant i think, although i played it so passively he might think he has me beat in case he has the heart flush. What concerns me is that this is an A. He could have had AA or AQ and it fits both his actions and preflop raise.

I check, he bets half pot and I fold.

Thoughts?

I would have personally called almost any other card, perhaps also would have been uncomfortable with K or 9 as well. But definitely any other random card, specifically because he could just have AQ, KQ.

Many thanks for any advice!

Check jam turn.

Xr turn is a bit awkward since i think it would leave Hero with something like 40bb behind, giving villain great implied odds to see river and get paid when he makes bigger boat.

River fold looks ok.

Er so he’s got like 127 behind on turn and we can pot to like what, 113? Not that it really matters to me, I’m going to pot and if he flats I’m just ripping any river, and yes obviously I run into it sometimes but generally big money fav on turn.

This kind of spot heavily comes down to reads on the button.

I sometimes raise the flop.

Turn x/jam can be very good if we perceive button to barrel trips too lightly.

You said he is loose pre. So putting him on AA or AQ is way too specific "because he raised and cbet". Everybody limped, if he is as loose as you say there is a lot of dead money to try and raise out of the pot.

Have you seen villain raise half pot at any point in your session?

If he has a weak hand he likely can't win on the river by checking and you played it so passively that he could be trying bluff you off a flush, missed boat, missed straight or any weird combo of hands he thinks you have.

We're calling this river and taking down some notes if he does indeed show up with AA or AQ. If you're folding the river, you should have just folded the flop.

This is very, very wrong.

That being said, I would call river. There should be plenty of bluffs in his range as river is excellent for him.

Thank you all, I think in retrospect this should have been the play.

Hi, thanks for the analysis, good points.
I think I placed wrong emphasis on him being loose, he was basically 39% VPIP, so only a bit more than optimal.

The others however were playing way too many hands. The fact that they limped called makes Villain much more likely to have Aces, or definitely at least one Ace. I also unblock aces.

I am not sure how many bluffs he has, he bet flop, albeit after everyone checked, but got called by 2 players. So he must be afraid someone has a Q.

Would he take this line of betting 3 times with some wrap or FD?

I do agree I should have ripped turn and just end it.

Not meant to be taken literally lol.

More of a mention that if we are folding this river simply because an Ace hit and our brain says OMG he has the EXACT cards that hit with that ace every single time, we should fold the flop, rack up our chips, slid our chair back from the table and walk away from poker.

Apologies as that was not very clear

I think 88 pops up here a good amount. With 3 players on flop and this being 5 card 2 queens are accounted for. 2 on turn make it easier to bet 88 and they're shoving river no matter what the card after turn bet.

Makes total sense - I just remember too vividly when i reraised before on the flop or turn in similar spots and just got shown the nuts.

Not saying he has the nuts - just saying if I reraise he calls the nuts and folds bluffs. Probably not so likely in this particular situation as he could easily have trips or 88.

Regarding 2 queens being accounted for, i would forget about the 3rd player. He was very bad, he could easily have had JT9 or sth like that.

So there is a big chance Villain had a Q.

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