I think my PLO inexperience shows in this hand. Please correct my dumb logic.

Live 5-5. I'm the short stack with 2.5k.

BTN straddles 10
SB folds
BB calls 10
UTG [Villain] Asian LAG calls 10
UTG+1 calls 10
MP calls 10
HJ calls 10
CO [Hero] calls 10 with As Jd 9c 8c
BTN checks

Pot 75

Flop 7d 6h 5d

BB checks
Villain bets 75
UTG+1 folds
MP folds
HJ folds
Hero calls 75
BTN folds
BB folds

I didn't raise because it's a 7-way limped pot, villain bet pot, we're super deep, and I don't want to face a 3-bet with zero redraws.

Pot 225

Turn 6s

Villain checks
Hero bets 175
Villain snap-calls

My image is nitty today. This is a merge bet: charge flush draws, sometimes get weaker straights to call, sometimes get the same straight to fold. I don't think he has a full house very often when he pots the flop into six people and then checks the turn.

River 3s

Villain checks
Hero bets 450

I feel like villain doesn't have a full house very often unless he flopped a straight with two pair or bottom set or the nut flush draw with two pair or bottom set, and only if decides not to bet it. This bet is meant to push him off a chop.

I actually like the overall idea, which preys on the fact that villain is extremely weighted towards straights, potentially with fd, and has little to no boats in this line to balance this out.

Your logic sounds good and I like your line - nh.

I'd like it to be more personal/exploitative but whatever. Clearly, holding a single 7 or 5 would be better. I also think you should play full sizing because you should be doing the same with top of range here.

I think holding a 7, 6, or 5 makes bluffing mandatory—I could be wrong. Does anyone not like this line? When I did this, I thought I was guilty of overthinking or fancy play syndrome.

Honestly I hate the turn bet, and then I really, really, really hate the river bet.

When he flats that turn I think you are underestimating just how many boats he can have. Lots of people bet top set/678 on this board.

Yeah ok he’s got some chops and some combo draws, maybe picked up trips to go with but I just don’t get the river bet it seems needlessly greedy and we are going to get check jammed in the face a ton. (in my experience) Our hand feels just way too strong to turn into a bluff to me.

We block nothing either which is pretty concerning.

It could be my inexperience. But I don’t see many people checking strong hands (66xx, 77xx, 76xx) after taking the lead in a previous street.

Yeah that’s nonesense. The ratio straights/fhs is heavily weighted towards straights in these spots by at least 4:1 id say. It’s one of the most unbalanced spots people play.

It’s a pretty common line.

Would like to take this seriously and hear you elaborate, but 4:1 sounds like a number you’ve plucked from thin air.

Are you advocating OP’s line? If so, why? Thanks.

Sure, ultimately such a spot is going to come down to feel for how the field plays and is going to have a large degree of subjectivity.

Let’s look at the combinatorics tho.

If we give villain a random top 50% eq range this is the amount of:
98: 7.54%
77,66: 3.01%
76 with diamonds: 0.94%
84 with diamonds: 1.19%
12.68% total

A random 50% eq range is obviously not exactly his range but from looking at such solves in multi-way solutions those numbers appear fairly accurate and whatever range you put in will give a fairly similar composition.

So let’s look at the actual hand now and consider how often villain would play each bucket this way:

On the flop lead into 7 people
98: often, let’s say 75%
77: often, but I would argue people at least size this down a bit some of the time. But for conservative sake let’s just weigh it at 75% as well.
66: less often for sure and probably smaller. 40%.
67:dd: depends on the side cards, let’s say 50%.
84dd: same 50%

That gives us the following relative weight after the 6 turn comes off:

98: 7.68% x 0.75
77: 1.64% x 0.75
66: 0.5% x 0.4
67:dd : 0.89% x 0.5
84:dd: 0.5% x 0.5

Now let’s take how often those would check turn:

98: almost always. 80%
77: betting fairy often, but let’s be conservative and weigh it to 50%
66: slowplayimg, checking 80%
67: checking half the time
84: always checking

98: 7.68% x 0.75 x 0.8 = 4.6%
77: 1.64% x 0.75 x 0.5 = 0.615%
66: 0.5% x 0.4 x 0.8 = 0.16%
67:dd : 0.89% x 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.22%
84:dd: 0.5% x 0.5 x 1 = 0.25%

Leading to a relative composition off:
Straights: 83%
Full houses: 17%

If he had a fd or 84 you prob. Would've gotten more money or the same by being aggressive. I prefer to just raise flip most of the time because if he has 8 and 4 or even low straight he's going to call the turn if he calls pot flop

Raising flop with no redraw in a near family pot at spr 33 is a massive punt.

I think once he calls turn we need to give up river with no blocker. We will have plenty of 789 to blast off with.

Results: He snap-called with 55 (small full house). I was too embarrassed and didn't pay attention to what his other two cards were.

deep and OOP against a guy with a nitty image, a lot of reasonable villains, even LAGs, will go into check-call mode with non-nut boats here. (i was thinking this before i got to the results btw)

but i don't hate this. it's better against a more straightforward player or if you have a blocker, but it puts a lot of pressure even on hands like 55 or 65. i agree with whoever said you should bet whatever you would want to bet with top boat on turn/river though.

a snap-call on the turn should tell you that he at least has a boat redraw or a small boat though - that this card improved him or that he has a good chance to improve. most villains would think a bit more with a naked straight, or straight + FD since they know they can't beat a nit's value range no matter what comes on the river, and will have to call again.

I was thinking this too. But I got stubborn/greedy and impulsively blasted the river.

As villain, betting turn without 77 or 66 is overplaying since all hero did was limp co. Hero can have some trashy 77xx more often than in most spots.

That’s why the river barrel is dubious for hero. Villain should have boats and slowplays oop at spr 11. He is not eager to gii with 65, 55, even 76 isn’t a fist pump. 66 should be checking a lot. Villains range is protected here.

How often does villain have small boats though when he pots a 7-way flop OOP? (Yes, he had a small boat here. I'm not sure what else he had with it.)

There are lots of set / two pair + draw. He could also have straight +2p/set.

Villain should be checking this turn a lot.

Yeah this is my main point. In a balanced strat villain should have a healthy ratio of boats. But for that he would have to check the nut straight a lot on the flop relative to his 2p+draw semi bluffs and no one does this which is why this is one of the most unbalanced spots in the game.

I guess the issue with bluffing a straight is that you have a lot of checking equity and your bluff still has to beat that and you’re blocking exactly the range you’re trying to fold.

In a balanced strat it makes no sense to bluff this hand, it’s just that people are so extremely unbalanced here OOP that it becomes worth considering.

The thing is even with us having 89 there's still a lot more combos of straights than sets - since this is 7 ways someone will have a straight here a very high % of the time, so not sure why he's potting a set unless he has a FD or something else to go with it. I do think our line looks like a FH - I wonder if villain has 48/89/55 if they call here.

I was very confused that he potted the 7-way flop with bottom set as well. I should've paid attention to his other two cards for my own edification.

So according to PPT the top 40% of hands contains 87,103 hands. Now when I do 40% with 89 or 48, I come up with about 9000 hands. So my understanding is when he has a set here even heads up roughly 10% of the time the opponent has a straight. Now if you make it 7 ways I would think the odds are somewhere around 60-70%, so really his bet is terrible. This doesn't even factor in higher sets which might add another 10-15% to that figure.