Quote:
Originally Posted by SinValYou
Hi Guys,
I always struggling in that spot (and might be result oriented).
Here is the hand in a 1-3 Game (Blinds 5). $ to 6 callers in every hand whaetever raise you have. Ranges don't really apply as vilains don't really have any.
Hero, is Big Blind.
UTG calls, UTG+1 (vilain) raise, Calls 2 time. Hero calls with AAT8s. UTG calls. (I know I should raise but I call from time to time out of position with AA to disguise my hand strength)
Flop: Ah7h2 pot 105$. Hero plays 450$ , vilain 500$.
Vilain is super agressif. I know he will try to represent AA and pot if I check. What line would you adopt to maximize your EV and profits ?
Here is what I have in mind:
1) Check raise pot to go broke on flop: he will probably call with all his flus draws. Cons: it's not a huge mistake from him as he has approx 27-30% and needs 33%. It also increase the variance while I'm trying to build a bankroll.
2) Donk pot and repot on safe turn. Pros: make sure we have a safe turn before piling everything in. If he calls on river, his mistake is bigger as his % falling. Cons: if board doubles up, we won't extract anymore value.
3)check call turn. Bet close to pot on turn to deny their equity. low variance. win/losses lower.
Any mathematical approach of why one line is better than the other ones.
Thank you so much
Neither getting it in on the flop nor him just calling your raise is giving him the proper odds, you are +EV in every scenario.
On a single street he has 20% (perhaps less) to hit a flush. Calling a pot sized reraise requires him to have 33%. This board is so dry that he cannot have more than 2-3% to improve via other cards (except if he has precisely 3456 or something like that)
If you think he rips it in on the flop after your reraise, he has around 30-35% to make a flush without you making a boat. And he needs a bit over 45% (105 pot and 450 x 2 total pot with him needing to put in 450).