1/2/5 PLO

AA74ss and raise UTG to 20

7 callers.

flop 999shd

BB check, I bet 100$ , BB calls

Turn 8h

BB check, I bet $150, BB calls

River 2s

I jam $300.


was this too thin given that it was an 8-way flop. How do I come up with value thresholds in spots like this.

If you had won you would 't be posting, so you lost, so obviously too thin.

A more accurate answer though is given your four cards and the three on the flop then at that point in the hand there are 45 unknown cards and if you have 7 opponents then they have 28 cards and if one of those cards is the 9 then:
hands_with_nine = C(44,27) * 1
hands = C(45, 28)
p_nine = C(44, 27) / C(45, 28) = 62.22%

On the river this goes up to 65%.

What about the chances someone out there has pocket kings? I didn't want to calculate this so I wrote a python script and came up with 22%. I simulated it with propokertools and got the same answer. So it's about 3 -1 that your opponent has quads here rather than KK.

edit: Check the flop.

Appreciate the reply. Breaking down how likely it is for someone to have a 9 makes a lot of sense.

I was just lost on how to think about the spot in the moment, and obviously after I get snapped off it feels like it was way too thin.

What kind of sourcery is this . Interested in the python script

Cool calc to get 62%, lets take this as the lower bound. With card removals and the ranges that people play the odds of someone having a 9 on the flop is more like 80%

With someone possibly folding KK before the river him having a 9 is more like 90%

Then him calling river again with KK is very ambitious

Hand is mega spew. But dont worry, we all spew from time to time (at least i do)

You don't need combinatorics for this. On the flop there are 28 cards in players hands out of 45. The probability of one of those being a 9 is just 28/45. Similar logic for turn and river.
And yes, 28/45 is 0.6222.
The conditional probability obviously goes up as your bets get called.

Well it must be wrong:

You have 7 total players not 7 opponents. Add another opponent and you will get 62%.

I’ll post the python later - it’s like 4 lines.

Our range should always check flop 7 way. I'd use 1/3psb or less on turn, betting small on river as well if at all(Balance with AKQx, double barreling very infrequently)

Once there are 5 or more players, most people error on the side of quads being live very often, but they will keep you honest with QQ/KK ime.

I’m a fish… still a holdem player at heart. Usually my spews involve going too thin.

PLO is a tough game.

I stand corrected

Lol @ 3 streets. +1 for the greeds