Quote:
Originally Posted by bigoilboomer
He raised pre, so I thought he had a set of Aces when he potted turn. When he also potted river, I wasn’t sure.
As in your other hand .. welcome. PLO will be a roller coaster for sure.
I don't mind playing these types of holdings multi-way. This game seems very typical of most PLO tables. HOWEVER, in PLO, IMO, the more you play PF the more willing you need to be to let go and reduce the slow drain on your stack that WILL happen with this style.
The issue is the Turn .. and your statement above. This statement has been made millions of times before across the poker landscape and typically makes good Regs internally smile with delight! What are you trying to accomplish with a call .. and two Players behind? You have a nut gutter and hearts .. NO, don't tell me about your Queens as you just said you thought your opponent had a set of Aces (or maybe a wheel).
At this point in time you can beat any made hand
if you hit the River .. but are you good? Yes, the three off-suit 4s give you the nuts. But what happens to your thoughts on hearts if either Player flats behind? You can no longer count on winning the hand with a flush and you could also get bluffed off your flush if that Player has the Ah 'only'.
You're getting 2 to 1 on a call, but only have 12 outs (if they're clean) with one card to come .. this is not the right price, especially with Players behind who can force you to fold with any raise AND may have 9 of your outs dominated.
So the question comes down to are you going to get paid enough 'if' you hit a nut out? And who's to say that Whale doesn't already have a 4, taking one away from you?
It's going to be rare to hit a 4 .. and it's going to be even more rare that you will get paid enough to cover your long term risk of betting on the 4 coming out. The pot is 240 and the most you can get from the Whale on the River will be 960. (It's very unlikely that Whale will re-pot into your pot raise or less.) So you are calling 80 to win 1120 (14 to 1) in the very best case scenario. So this is essentially a set mining situation.
There's way too much that needs to fall into place IMO .. Yes, there's a concept called MDF (minimum defense frequency). But what are you defending against? Even if Whale has just an Ace (and not a set) it's probably the Ah. Your own statement indicates he 'calls with draws and overplays hands', so when he bets out here it's pretty safe to assume that he has 'something' that the Ace triggered because he didn't bet the Flop.
Can you beat an overplay? Sure, if you hit, but at what cost .. and ARE YOU GOING TO GET PAID?
PLO is a great game, but you wont last long trying to hit homers all the time. A Player like this will pay you off, but better off to do it when you are more sure of your equity. This here is more like trying to score a runner from 2nd base with a suicide squeeze. GL
