what do you think about this hand? I think everything up until the river is pretty clear cut, although I could be mistaken. On the river I think this is the sort of situation where at low stakes online villain will not be bluffing very often, so while it might be a GTO call with our blocker we can make an exploitative fold. What do you think?


IPoker, $0.25/$0.50 Pot Limit Omaha Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $25.01 (50 bb)
Hero (BB): $50 (100 bb)
UTG: $42.65 (85.3 bb)
MP: $48.51 (97 bb)
CO: $46.36 (92.7 bb)
BTN: $35.66 (71.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Ac Qs Jc Th
UTG folds, MP calls $0.50, CO folds, BTN calls $0.50, SB completes, Hero raises to $2.50, 2 folds, SB calls $2

Flop: ($6) 5h 2h 9c (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($6) 7c (2 players)
SB bets $2.85, Hero calls $2.85

River: ($11.70) 8h (2 players)
SB bets $11.12, Hero folds

Results: $11.70 pot ($0.58 rake)
Final Board: 5h 2h 9c 7c 8h
SB mucked and won $11.12 ($5.77 net)
Hero mucked Ac Qs Jc Th and lost (-$5.35 net)

I think your opponent is going to have a flush most of the time, so unless you have some sort of read on that specific opponent that they have capabilities it's fine to fold. Even if you had the Ah or Kh blocker and raise your opponent won't always give you credit for it.

Most of the time the lead isn't a bluff.

I prefer flop cbet, and call river. Villain needs to be quite unbalanced on river here for call not to be profitable.

I disagree that the hand is clear cut as I believe a flop Cbet is mandatory. This is your board, you have a h blocking villain continues, you have the BDFD, and you need to bluff. This hand checks every box for a flop Cbet.

As played I don't see what you can do differently on the turn or river.

what sizing are you using on this flop? What is your play if you get jammed on?

Probably something like half pot, folding to 3b.

Just looked at it in vision, looks as though I was wrong. Nut backdoor flush draws with a Broadway h blocker do not bet, Broadway backdoor flushdraws do bet but only with the Ah blocker (always bets for half pot).

Looks as if I underestimated the amount of equity the hand has initially. Is seems the solver does not want to have to fold this hand to a CR. so only bluffs the lower equity versions with a better blocker.

I think cbetting flop is a fairly big mistake unless we have very specific pre and flop deviations.

Turn I can see a raise some frequency with a different combo or reads, but this will be standard by far.

River I think we have a good hand to call as GTO. I think this sizing is standard from their position, and there will be some two pairs and lower straights that would want to turn into bluffs. As you say though, this will be underbluffed, and I think folding is good.