First off, I'm not trying to sound whiney but I've run into what I'd say is a very interesting situation and I'm looking for thoughts and opinions.

I'm playing .25 / .50 almost exclusively now and there's a player that I've been playing against regularly for the last year. I have e around 1500 hands on him. I'm very familiar with him, to say the least. Previously, he's been what I'd say is a somewhat loose player and slightly or at best, moderately aggressive. If I were to guess, I'd say that he was a breakeven or maybe slightly winning player.

In the last two or three weeks, there has been a DRAMATIC difference in his play and stats. It's SO different, it's like someone else is playing on his account. Suddenly, he's gone from around 40/15/4 to the 71/20/7 range and EXTREMELY LAG. His win rate has has increased from, again, what appears to be around breakeven or slightly winning to winning 5 or 6 buyins every time he sits at a table. I've still been playing at the tables with him but also just observing tables too. Prior to these recent changes, my database shows that overall, I'd been slightly up in terms of winnings and now, I'm more or less getting decimated. Obviously, I know there are training sites and coaches that can be hired but it seems strange that his skill level and style could or would increase so much, in such a short period of time.

Now, I know it's only .25 / .50 and I completely understand that it's PLO and to expect variance but this is just very of the ordinary. I guess my question is: Could someone else with a considerably better skill level being playing on his account and if so, is it something that I might want to question or simply just avoid playing at tables with him? Has something like this ever happened to you against a familiar player? If so, what came of it?

he's probably just running well, and as a consequence, playing more aggressively.

1.5k hands is not much in a year, which heavily implies he's very recreational.

A significant portion of the last 2 weeks have been holiday, people tend to get drunk and have fun. Drunk people play loose, IME.

It's near the end of the year, so if people track their win/loss stats. they can sometimes try to change them.

As PPG said he only needs to have watched one video and then started running like god to decide lag maniac is the new black (esp. so if combined with one of the above points).


It's also possible he has a friend/relative visiting for the holidays (or house sitting or something) and they are playing on his account ... but the above are more likely IMO.

1500 hands is not a big sample size. I play that in a day.

I started PLO as a nit since I didn't know very much. Than I watched some Phil Galfond videos and became a LAG pretty quick. My game got out of the box as it were.

I wonder if some people think I am cheating now that I win as a LAG, and I broke even as a TAP.

It seems like a pretty usual course for someone improving and moving up in ranks.

Try it!

Just to add on, even if you were to see him sitting on 20 stacks doesn't mean he's even up. You should be looking to sit directly to his left, not avoiding his tables (tf?). He's a fish. He's also not a LAG. He went from fish nit to loose and passive.

Thank you to everyone. I sincerely appreciate appreciate that you've taken the time to respond to me.

In regard to the player, when I last played against him, he was on my left and without question, it made playing considerably more difficult. Every raise and as I recall, every 3Bet was called and it seemed next to impossible to knock him off of a hand, which wasn't as difficult previously. I'm more of a TAG or tight-weak player, so maybe opening up a bit more may be something I should do and hopefully, have more success with.

That's a very good point about him maybe not even being up, despite the multiple wins and stacks in front of him. it's just odd to see a guy who's apparently been breakeven for so long and then becoming an absolute crusher - or at least appears to be.

In regard to training sites and videos, I had a 3 month membership at PLO mastermind. The membership included use of the PLO trainer software, their quizzes and video library and one training course in particular that I completed was the 10 week transformation. IMO, it was excellent and I learned a lot from it. I'm a big fan of the coaches on that site and still follow their Discord, Twitch and YouTube feeds regularly.

On Upswing, I bought the PLO Launch Pad course and went through that.

As far as Run It Once, I've been an essential member of that site for three or four months now and plan to continue it. To me, it's well worth it. They have excellent coaches, content and add new videos each week. Galfond, aside from making Elite videos, also posts Essential content from time to time as well, so that's a big plus too.

He might even be on monkey tilt and is just running hot for the sessions you've seen him play. I've seen players go ballistic and just say "welp if I cant win with skill then I'll win with luck" and then clean the table out in one glorious session. I played with this guy once who called a 10k river jam in a 5/5 game with something like AKK2 on a QJ256 board because "he didnt believe his opponent" and he was right.

I'm leaning towards no

I don't see the guy online as often anymore but when I do play against him now, what I can say is that he's back to playing his "old way". So, something was certainly different.

Bad players seems to go on winning streaks that good players never get to go on. Bad players on a heater will not fold and will gamble hard, thus maximizing their winning streak. Good players will hardly ever build such big stacks. But good players don't steadily lose money either, making up for not going on such massive crazy heaters. Seems like your buddy was on a hot streak. They can last for weeks or months even. I cannot beat a bad player running like god. I have learned to just find another table and wait for the bad player to come back to earth. Sound like your buddy is back!

Disclaimer: I'm a fish /bad player at any stakes. Good or bad, doesn't everyone have streaks? You're absolutely right though, he could have been on a hot streak and yes, he's back - at least for the moment and I'm glad, because was getting crushed by the 2.0 version. Running like god streaks are great, as long of you're the one running good and not the recipient.

The loose and more aggro a player is, the more they will maximize their streaks (good and bad). You sound like you may not be the most aggressive player around, and probably have a far less volatile game, thus not ever going on such a hot streak as a aggro monkey. But you probably don't have giant spew session very often. You most likely just slowly lose a bit...?

I would bet a few bucks that the player in question is a bigger loser than you are at the game.

Except for the couple of weeks that I noted, I'd have to agree that he was a losing player, based on my observation.

For me, last year was a losing year because of the rake but isn't that everyone's complaint? At micro stakes, the rake eats you alive. This year, so far at least, since I've moved up in stakes a bit (primarily .25/.50) , I'm a winning player, despite the rake. It's not like I'm crushing it but still, IMO, any profit is a big plus. I'm confident that I'm getting better, because I'm putting a lot of time into it. I had a PLO Mastermind membership last year, bought an Upswing course and have been a member of RIO (essential) for several months now. In addition to that, I follow the Mastermind Youtube, Twitch and Discord feeds and John Beauprez has some good material too. Do you follow him at all?

Overall, no, I don't have a lot of spew sessions but don't we all go on tilt from time to time? My worst day ever was losing 7 buy-ins - some from idiocy and frustration and some from being a favorite and just getting drawn out on. Losses really suck but at the same time, they're easier to take if you're a favorite when all of the money goes in.

As far as my stats go, they're relatively unchanged over the last 13 months that I've been playing PLO: 27/17/6. I'm tight weak, because I'm aggro pre with a typical hand selection for my stats and aggro on the flop, if I hit it and if I don't, it's almost like waving a white flag and that's probably due to a weak check back range. From there, it's folding the turn too often and calling the river too much. You know, the hands where you know you're beat but convince yourself to call anyway, since you feel that your opponent is just trying to bluff you? Ugh. Self-owning is such fun.

It sounds like you have at least identified your weaknesses and leaks. That is a huge step most micro players never manage. Next step is to actively plug those leaks and play strong where you play weak. You already know what to do, you are just not doing it yet is sound like. Perhaps you are playing too high for your roll to "experiment" with more aggressive plays. It really sucks when you start playing aggressive in new spots and it doesn't work out, but if you are done your homework like you say you have, it will eventually pay off. Getting out of .25/.50 was a big deal for me, and it didn't happen until I embraced the variance and started to play like I knew I should, short term results be damned. It required maximum exploits from me, and they didn't always work. But they will if you stay studious.

I have subscribed to Mastermind and ROI, although for only a month or two for each. That should be enough to get out of micros if you use bankroll management and apply what you learned without ego.

I regularly go on 10+ BI downswings, but beat the game for over 15bb/100.

PLO will never been tamed until you embrace the variance.

There is a fine line between crazy and genius in PLO.

BTW, whenever I start playing a new stake I always feel like I play a bit too fit or fold post flop until I get more comfortable.

A master is someone who has made all the mistakes, at least once.

Good luck!